Elm bark beetle in Holocene peat deposits and the northwest European elm decline

The elm decline of 5000 ¹⁴C yr ago has been the most widely discussed phenomenon in post‐glacial vegetation history. This pan‐European reduction of elm populations, echoed in the decimation of elmwoods in Europe during the twentieth century, has attracted a series of interrelated hypotheses involving climate change, human activity, disease and soil deterioration. The elm bark beetle (Scolytus scolytus L.) is an essential component of disease explanations. We present evidence for the presence of the beetle over a prolonged period (ca. 7950–4910 yr BP [8800–5660 cal. yr BP]) from a lowland raised mire deposit in northeast Scotland, with its final appearance at this site, and the first and only appearance in another mire of a single scolytid find, around the time of the elm decline. The subfossil S. scolytus finds are not only the first from Scotland, but they also represent the most comprehensive sequence of finds anywhere. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the effect of low soil temperatures on transpiration by Scots pine

For ecosystem modelling of the Boreal forest it is important to include processes associated with low soil temperature during spring‐early summer, as these affect the tree water uptake. The COUP model, a physically based SVAT model, was tested with 2 years of soil and snow physical measurements and sap flow measurements in a 70‐year‐old Scots pine stand in the boreal zone of northern Sweden. During the first year the extent and duration of soil frost was manipulated in the field. The model was successful in reproducing the timing of the soil warming after the snowmelt and frost thaw. A delayed soil warming, into the growing season, severely reduced the transpiration. We demonstrated the potential for considerable overestimation of transpiration by the model if the reduction of the trees' capacity to transpire due to low soil temperatures is not taken into account. We also demonstrated that the accumulated effect of aboveground conditions could be included when simulating the relationship between soil temperature and tree water uptake. This improved the estimated transpiration for the control plot and when soil warming was delayed into the growing season. The study illustrates the need of including antecedent conditions on root growth in the model in order to catch these effects on transpiration. The COUP model is a promising tool for predicting transpiration in high‐latitude stands. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High resolution paleoenvironmental and chronological investigations of Norse landnám at Tasiusaq, Eastern Settlement, Greenland

High-resolution paleoenvironmental data from a peat profile with a small pollen source area are used to reconstruct the impacts of landnám on vegetation and soils at a Norse farm complex (∅2 at Tasiusaq) comprising two farms in the Eastern Settlement of Greenland. Analyses include the AMS ¹⁴C dating of plant macrofossil samples and the use of Bayesian radiocarbon calibration to construct improved age-depth models for Norse cultural horizons. The onset of a regional landnám may be indicated by the clearance of Betula pubescens woodland immediately prior to local settlement. The latter is dated to AD 950-1020 (2σ) and is characterised by possible burning of Betula glandulosa scrub to provide grassland pasture for domestic stock. Clearance and grazing resulted in accelerated levels of soil erosion at a westerly farm. This was followed by an easterly migration of settlement and agriculture. Site constraints prevent an assessment of the demise of the easterly farm, but pressures of overgrazing and land degradation may have been the major factors responsible for the abandonment of the earlier farm.     

Mapping sediment acoustic impedance using remote sensing acoustic techniques in a shallow-water carbonate environment

 Real-time trackline plots of surficial sediment acoustic impedance delineate several sedimentary facies off Garden Key in the Dry Tortugas. The sea floor within a 6×6 km surveyed area consists of carbonate muds (silts), sands and shell, rock, and live corals. The 4-kHz acoustic data supports this finding by providing a pictographic representation of the distribution and structure of several sediment facies types. Plotting the gridded acoustic data with commercial mapping software (Surfer) provides a three-dimensional (3D) perspective of the bottom topography with a color contour map of surficial sediment impedance (upper 0.4 m) draped over the 3D surface.     

Interhemispheric flow of thermal plasma in a closed magnetic flux tube at mid-latitudes under sunspot minimum conditions

The coupled H⁺ and O⁺ time-dependent continuity and momentum equations are solved within a region of the L = 3 magnetic flux tube lying between (and including) the F2-layers of conjugate hemispheres. The method of solution is an extended and modified version of the Murphy et al. (1976) method. The model is used to study the coupling between the F2-layers of conjugate hemispheres during magnetically quiet periods.The results of the calculations strongly indicate that the protonosphere acts as a reservoir, with variable H⁺ content, which prevents direct coupling between the F2-layers of conjugate hemispheres. However there is generally a significant interhemispheric flow of plasma. This flow is caused by conditions in the summer and winter topside ionospheres and it maintains continuity in the plasma concentration within the protonosphere. There are times when the direction of flow is from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. It is suggested that maintenance of the winter F2-layer at night is not assisted directly by the F2-layer of the conjugate summer hemisphere.It is shown that during the first few days of protonosphere replenishment after a magnetic storm there is an upflow of H⁺ in the topside ionosphere at all times in the summer hemisphere. There is also an upflow of H⁺ during the daytime in both hemispheres. A comparison with the results obtained when the interhemispheric H⁺ flux is held permanently at zero shows that both F2-layers are little affected by the interhemispheric H⁺ flux. Nevertheless both F2-layers are affected by the H⁺ tube content of the protonosphere. When the H⁺ flux at 1000 km in one hemisphere is much greater than the H⁺ flux at 1000 km in the conjugate hemisphere, there is a corresponding signature in the interhemispheric H⁺ flux.The results suggest that there is insufficient time between magnetic storms for complete replenishment of the protonosphere to occur.     

The El Salvador earthquakes of January and February 2001: context, characteristics and implications for seismic risk

The small Central American republic of El Salvador has experienced, on average, one destructive earthquake per decade during the last hundred years. The latest events occurred on 13 January and 13 February 2001, with magnitudes M_w 7.7 and 6.6, respectively. The two events, which were of different tectonic origin, follow the patterns of the seismicity of the region although neither event has a known precedent in the earthquake catalogue in terms of size and location. The earthquakes caused damage to thousands of traditionally built houses and triggered hundreds of landslides, which were the main causes of fatalities. The earthquakes have clearly demonstrated trends of increasing seismic risk in El Salvador due to rapid population expansion in areas of high shaking and landslide hazard, exacerbated by deforestation and uncontrolled urbanisation. The institutional mechanisms required for the control of land use and building practice are very weak and present a major obstacle to risk mitigation.     

Effect of abutment modeling on the seismic response of bridge structures

Abutment behavior significantly influences the seismic response of certain bridge structures. Specifically in the case of short bridges with relatively stiff superstructures typical of highway overpasses, embankment mobilization and inelastic behavior of the soil material under high shear deformation levels dominate the response of the bridge and its column bents. This paper investigates the sensitivity of bridge seismic response with respect to three different abutment modeling approaches. The abutment modeling approaches are based on three increasing levels of complexity that attempt to capture the critical components and modes of abutment response without the need to generate continuum models of the embankment, approach, and abutment foundations. Six existing reinforced concrete bridge structures, typical of Ordinary Bridges in California, are selected for the analysis. Nonlinear models of the bridges are developed in OpenSees. Three abutment model types of increasing complexity are developed for each bridge, denoted as roller, simplified, and spring abutments. The roller model contains only single-point constraints. The spring model contains discrete representations of backfill, bearing pad, shear key, and back wall behavior. The simplified model is a compromise between the efficient roller model and the comprehensive spring model. Modal, pushover, and nonlinear dynamic time history analyses are conducted for the six bridges using the three abutment models for each bridge. Comparisons of the analysis results show major differences in mode shapes and periods, ultimate base shear strength, as well as peak displacements of the column top obtained due to dynamic excitation. The adequacy of the three abutment models used in the study to realistically represent all major resistance mechanisms and components of the abutments, including an accurate estimation of their mass, stiffness, and nonlinear hysteretic behavior, is evaluated. Recommendations for abutment modeling are made.     

Oxygen and sulfur isotope systematics of sulfate produced by bacterial and abiotic oxidation of pyrite

To better understand reaction pathways of pyrite oxidation and biogeochemical controls on δ¹⁸O and δ³⁴S values of the generated sulfate in acid mine drainage (AMD) and other natural environments, we conducted a series of pyrite oxidation experiments in the laboratory. Our biological and abiotic experiments were conducted under aerobic conditions by using O₂ as an oxidizing agent and under anaerobic conditions by using dissolved Fe(III)_aq as an oxidant with varying δ¹⁸O_H2O values in the presence and absence of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans. In addition, aerobic biological experiments were designed as short- and long-term experiments where the final pH was controlled at ∼2.7 and 2.2, respectively. Due to the slower kinetics of abiotic sulfide oxidation, the aerobic abiotic experiments were only conducted as long term with a final pH of ∼2.7. The δ³⁴S_SO4 values from both the biological and abiotic anaerobic experiments indicated a small but significant sulfur isotope fractionation (∼−0.7‰) in contrast to no significant fractionation observed from any of the aerobic experiments. Relative percentages of the incorporation of water-derived oxygen and dissolved oxygen (O₂) to sulfate were estimated, in addition to the oxygen isotope fractionation between sulfate and water, and dissolved oxygen. As expected, during the biological and abiotic anaerobic experiments all of the sulfate oxygen was derived from water. The percentage incorporation of water-derived oxygen into sulfate during the oxidation experiments by O₂ varied with longer incubation and lower pH, but not due to the presence or absence of bacteria. These percentages were estimated as 85%, 92% and 87% from the short-term biological, long-term biological and abiotic control experiments, respectively. An oxygen isotope fractionation effect between sulfate and water (ε¹⁸O_SO4-H2O) of ∼3.5‰ was determined for the anaerobic (biological and abiotic) experiments. This measured value was then used to estimate the oxygen isotope fractionation effects between sulfate and dissolved oxygen in the aerobic experiments which were −10.0‰, −10.8‰, and −9.8‰ for the short-term biological, long-term biological and abiotic control experiments, respectively. Based on the similarity between δ¹⁸O_SO4 values in the biological and abiotic experiments, it is suggested that δ¹⁸O_SO4 values cannot be used to distinguish biological and abiotic mechanisms of pyrite oxidation. The results presented here suggest that Fe(III)_aq is the primary oxidant for pyrite at pH < 3, even in the presence of dissolved oxygen, and that the main oxygen source of sulfate is water-oxygen under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions.     

Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations

Large ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations are required to explore modelling uncertainty and make probabilistic predictions of future transient climate change at regional scales. These are not yet computationally feasible so we have developed a technique to emulate the response of such an ensemble by scaling equilibrium patterns of climate change derived from much cheaper “slab” model ensembles in which the atmospheric component of an AOGCM is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean. Climate feedback parameters are diagnosed for each member of a slab model ensemble and used to drive an energy balance model (EBM) to predict the time-dependent response of global surface temperature expected for different combinations of uncertain AOGCM parameters affecting atmospheric, land and sea-ice processes. The EBM projections are then used to scale normalised patterns of change derived for each slab member, and hence emulate the response of the relevant atmospheric model version when coupled to a dynamic ocean, in response to a 1% per annum increase in CO₂. The emulated responses are validated by comparison with predictions from a 17 member ensemble of AOGCM simulations, constructed from variants of HadCM3 using the same parameter combinations as 17 members of the slab model ensemble. Cross-validation permits estimation of the spatial and temporal dependence of emulation error, and also allows estimation of a correction field to correct discrepancies between the scaled equilibrium patterns and the transient response, reducing the emulation error. Emulated transient responses and their associated errors are obtained from the slab ensemble for 129 pseudo-HadCM3 versions containing multiple atmospheric parameter perturbations. These are combined to produce regional frequency distributions for the transient response of annual surface temperature change and boreal winter precipitation change. The technique can be extended to any surface climate variable demonstrating a scaleable, approximately linear response to forcing.