Apparent and real bias in numerical transfer functions in palaeolimnology

We present an evaluation of the procedure by which model prediction bias is examined in palaeolimnological transfer function inference models. We argue that most of the prediction biases commonly reported in the literature are, in fact, fallacious, and are the artificial consequence of the inappropriate manner in which residuals are traditionally examined. We show that the extent of the specious model bias is entirely predictable from first principles and is essentially determined by the strength of the predictive model. We suggest that the analysis of residuals should always be examined as a function of the model's predictions and we discuss the implications of the old and new approaches.     

A Parameterization of Dry Thermals and Shallow Cumuli for Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

For numerical weather prediction models and models resolving deep convection, shallow convective ascents are subgrid processes that are not parameterized by classical local turbulent schemes. The mass flux formulation of convective mixing is now largely accepted as an efficient approach for parameterizing the contribution of larger plumes in convective dry and cloudy boundary layers. We propose a new formulation of the EDMF scheme (for Eddy Diffusivity\Mass Flux) based on a single updraft that improves the representation of dry thermals and shallow convective clouds and conserves a correct representation of stratocumulus in mesoscale models. The definition of entrainment and detrainment in the dry part of the updraft is original, and is specified as proportional to the ratio of buoyancy to vertical velocity. In the cloudy part of the updraft, the classical buoyancy sorting approach is chosen. The main closure of the scheme is based on the mass flux near the surface, which is proportional to the sub-cloud layer convective velocity scale w _*. The link with the prognostic grid-scale cloud content and cloud cover and the projection on the non- conservative variables is processed by the cloud scheme. The validation of this new formulation using large-eddy simulations focused on showing the robustness of the scheme to represent three different boundary layer regimes. For dry convective cases, this parameterization enables a correct representation of the countergradient zone where the mass flux part represents the top entrainment (IHOP case). It can also handle the diurnal cycle of boundary-layer cumulus clouds (EUROCS\ARM) and conserve a realistic evolution of stratocumulus (EUROCS\FIRE).     

Pilot Point Optimization of Mining Boundaries for Lateritic Metal Deposits: Finding the Trade-off Between Dilution and Ore Loss

Natural Resources Research - Geological contacts in lateritic metal deposits (footwall topographies) often delineate the orebody boundaries. Spatial variations seen in such contacts are frequently...     

Prototype measurements and small-scale model tests of wave overtopping at shallow rubble-mound breakwaters: the Ostia-Rome yacht harbour case

The paper presents the comparison between the results of small-scale model tests and prototype measurements of wave overtopping at a rubble-mound breakwater. The specific structure investigated is the west breakwater of the yacht harbour of Rome at Ostia (Italy) and is characterized by a gentle seaward slope (1/4) and by a long, shallow foreshore. The laboratory tests firstly aimed at carefully reproducing two measured storms in which overtopping occurred and was measured. The tests have been carried out in two independent laboratories, in a wave flume and in a wave basin, hence using a two-dimensional (2-D) and a three-dimensional (3-D) setup. In the 2-D laboratory tests no overtopping occurred during the storm reproductions; in the 3-D case discharges five to ten times smaller than those observed in prototype have been measured. This indicates the existence of model and scale effects. These effects have been discussed on the basis of the results of several parametric tests, which have been carried out in both laboratories, in addition to the storm reproductions, varying wave and water level characteristics. Final comparison of all the performed tests with 86 prototype measurements still suggests the existence of scale and model effects that induce strong underestimation of overtopping discharge at small scale. The scale reproduction of wave breaking on the foreshore, together with the 3-D features of the prototype conditions and the absence of wind stress in the laboratory measurements, have been individuated as the main sources of scale and model effects. The paper also provides a comparison between the data and a largely used formula for wave overtopping discharges in the presence of structures similar to the one at hand. The suitable value of a roughness factor that appears in that formula is investigated and good agreement is found with other recent researches on rubble-mound breakwaters.     

Tides in a body librating about a spin–orbit resonance: generalisation of the Darwin–Kaula theory

The Darwin-Kaula theory of bodily tides is intended for celestial bodies rotating without libration. We demonstrate that this theory, in its customary form, is inapplicable to a librating body. Specifically, in the presence of libration in longitude, the actual spectrum of Fourier tidal modes differs from the conventional spectrum rendered by the Darwin–Kaula theory for a nonlibrating celestial object. This necessitates derivation of formulae for the tidal torque and the tidal heating rate, that are applicable under libration. We derive the tidal spectrum for longitudinal forced libration with one and two main frequencies, generalisation to more main frequencies being straightforward. (By main frequencies we understand those emerging due to the triaxiality of the librating body.) Separately, we consider a case of free libration at one frequency (once again, generalisation to more frequencies being straightforward). We also calculate the tidal torque. This torque provides correction to the triaxiality-caused physical libration. Our theory is not self-consistent: we assume that the tidal torque is much smaller than the permanent-triaxiality-caused torque, so the additional libration due to tides is much weaker than the main libration due to the permanent triaxiality. Finally, we calculate the tidal dissipation rate in a body experiencing forced libration at the main mode, or free libration at one frequency, or superimposed forced and free librations.     

Links between NAO fluctuations and inter-annual variability of winter-months precipitation in the Seine River watershed (north-western France)

The inter-annual to multi-decadal winter variability (DJFM) of precipitation on the Seine River watershed (France) was analysed using continuous wavelet transform analysis and compared to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). Nine weather stations were used over the 1951 to 2004 period and confirmed the homogeneity of inter-annual fluctuations for all stations but one. Wavelet coherence between SLP over the Icelandic and Azores regions and precipitation highlighted coherence for different scales of variability according to the centre of action considered. Segmentation and wavelet analysis and coherence between precipitation and NAOI over a long period of time (1873–2004) showed: i) increasing variability across the last century at most time scales, especially for NAOI; ii) the existence of change points for the mean and variance of both signals; iii) overall discontinuity of the coherence whatever the scale considered, especially between ∼1910 and ∼1955 for inter-decennial to pluri-decennial scales.     

Ab initio calculations of the Fe(II) and Fe(III) isotopic effects in citrates,nicotianamine, and phytosiderophore,and new Fe isotopic measurements in higher plants

Iron is one of the most abundant transition metal in higher plants and variations in its isotopic compositions can be used to trace its utilization. In order to better understand the effect of plant-induced isotopic fractionation on the global Fe cycling, we have estimated by quantum chemical calculations the magnitude of the isotopic fractionation between different Fe species relevant to the transport and storage of Fe in higher plants: Fe(II)-citrate, Fe(III)-citrate, Fe(II)-nicotianamine, and Fe(III)-phytosiderophore. The ab initio calculations show firstly, that Fe(II)-nicotianamine is ～3‰ (⁵⁶Fe/⁵⁴Fe) isotopically lighter than Fe(III)-phytosiderophore; secondly, even in the absence of redox changes of Fe, change in the speciation alone can create up to ～1.5‰ isotopic fractionation. For example, Fe(III)-phytosiderophore is up to 1.5‰ heavier than Fe(III)-citrate₂ and Fe(II)-nicotianamine is up to 1‰ heavier than Fe(II)-citrate. In addition, in order to better understand the Fe isotopic fractionation between different plant components, we have analyzed the iron isotopic composition of different organs (roots, seeds, germinated seeds, leaves and stems) from six species of higher plants: the dicot lentil (Lens culinaris), and the graminaceous monocots Virginia wild rye (Elymus virginicus), Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense), Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis), river oat (Uniola latifolia), and Indian goosegrass (Eleusine indica). The calculations may explain that the roots of strategy-II plants (Fe(III)-phytosiderophore) are isotopically heavier (by about 1‰ for the δ⁵⁶Fe) than the upper parts of the plants (Fe transported as Fe(III)-citrate in the xylem or Fe(II)-nicotianamine in the phloem). In addition, we suggest that the isotopic variations observed between younger and older leaves could be explained by mixing of Fe received from the xylem and the phloem.     

Effect of vorticity on the generation of rogue waves due to dispersive focusing

The kinematic and dynamic of steep two-dimensional focusing wave trains on a shearing flow in deep water are investigated analytically and numerically. In the absence of waves, the vorticity due to the vertical gradient of the horizontal current velocity is assumed constant. A linear kinematic model based on the spatio-temporal evolution of the frequency is derived, predicting the focusing distance and time of a chirped wave packet in the presence of constant vorticity. Furthermore, a linear model, based on a Fourier integral, is used to describe the evolution of the free surface on shearing current. To compute the fully nonlinear evolution of the wave group in the presence of vorticity, a new numerical model, based on a BIEM approach, is developed. On the basis of these different approaches, the role of constant vorticity on rogue wave occurrence is analysed. Two main results are obtained: (1) the linear behaviour expected in the presence of constant vorticity is significantly different from what is commonly expected in the presence of constant current and (2) the nonlinear effects are found to be of significant influence in the case at hand.