1960-2009年西南地区极端干旱气候变化(英文)

Based on the daily data of temperature and precipitation of 108 meteorological stations in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009, we calculate the monthly and yearly surface humid indexes, as well as the extreme drought frequency. According to the data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of the extreme drought frequency in inter-annual, inter-decadal, summer monsoon period and winter monsoon period are analyzed. The results are indicated as follows. (1) In general, the southwestern Sichuan Basin, southern Hengduan Mountains, southern coast of Guangxi and northern Guizhou are the areas where the extreme drought frequency has significantly increased in the past 50 years. As for the decadal change, from the 1960s to the 1980s the extreme drought frequency has presented a decreasing trend, while the 1990s is the wettest decade and the whole area is turning wet. In the 2000s, the extreme drought frequency rises quickly, but the regional differences reduce. (2) During summer monsoon period, the extreme drought frequency is growing, which generally occurs in the high mountains around the Sichuan Basin, most parts of Guangxi and "the broom-shaped mountains" in Yunnan. It is distinct that the altitude has impacts on the ex-treme drought frequency; during winter monsoon period, the area is relatively wet and the extreme drought frequency is decreasing. (3) During summer monsoon period, the abrupt change is observed in 2003, whereas the abrupt change during winter monsoon period is in 1989. The annual extreme drought frequency variation is a superposition of abrupt changes during summer monsoon and winter monsoon periods. The departure sequence vibration of annual extreme drought frequency is quasi-5 years and quasi-12 years.     

A Global Reliability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagati...     

福建省海洋药物与生物制品产业高质量发展路径分析

福建省海洋生物资源丰富、海洋生态环境良好、区位条件优越、海洋科学技术水平领先,具有高质量发展海洋药物与生物制品产业的巨大潜力。但福建省海洋药物与生物制品产业面临“大而不强”的困境,文章分析了福建省产业领域企业规模小、数量少、产业公共服务平台重建设轻运营和经费投入较少等问题,提出优化产业结构、增强创新能力、提升质量效益、...     

文昌B凹陷古近系低渗储层物性影响因素定量评价与应用

珠江口盆地文昌B凹陷的油气勘探已经进入古近系中深层领域,低渗储层是制约该领域油气勘探的关键。该区低渗储层物性影响因素的研究处于定性阶段,主控因素不明确是导致"甜点"储层难以预测的关键。针对这种现状和难点,在系统分析沉积、成岩和构造作用对储层物性影响的基础上,利用岩心实验分析和钻井统计数据,运用多元回归方法对储层物性影响因素进行了定量评价,确定了储层物性主控因素及权重,从而综合预测出有利储层的分布区。结果表明:珠海组储层物性主控因素为胶结和压实作用,恩平组储层物性主控因素为沉积作用,文昌组储层物性主控因素为沉积和压实作用。根据上述研究结果,在地质模式的指导下精准预测了重点层段恩平组的优质储层展布,并指出D9-9构造和D9-10构造发育"甜点"储层,具有较大的勘探潜力。该项研究成果对文昌B凹陷乃至整个珠江口盆地西部低渗储层领域的油气勘探具有重要指导意义。     

CINRAD-SA双偏振雷达资料在降水估测中的应用初探

对基于水平反射率ZH和差分传播相移率K_(DP)的降水估测综合法R(C)进行了改进,并对广州S波段双偏振雷达2016年2次飑线和2次台风降水过程的Φ_(DP)使用小波分析进行滤波处理,在此基础上使用变距最小二乘法拟合得到K_(DP)的值。分别使用R(C)和R(Z_H)法对2次飑线和2次台风降水过程进行降水估算,将估算结果和雨量计小时雨量进行了对比,并将两种方法的评估结果进行了对比。结果表明:(1)对于飑线类型降水,R(C)法对5 mm·h~(-1)以上的降水估测精度要好于R(Z_H)法,且降水率越大,R(C)法优势越明显,当降水率≥20 mm·h~(-1)时,两次过程R(C)法比R(Z_H)法的平均相对误差(RE)降低了17. 2%,平均绝对误差(AE)减少了1.89 mm,平均均方根误差(RMSE)减少了1.66 mm;(2)对于台风类型降水,R(C)法对5 mm·h~(-1)以上的降水估测精度也好于R(Z_H)法,当降水率≥20 mm·h~(-1)时,两次过程R(C)法比R(Z_H)法的平均RE降低了33. 19%,平均AE减少了3. 95 mm,平均RMSE减少了4.05 mm;(3)对于飑线和台风两种类型降水R(C)法都明显改善了降水率较大时的R(Z_H)法低估问题,但R(C)法在降水率10 mm·h~(-1)时也存在低估,可能是由雨滴谱资料观测误差导致拟合的系数偏小或雷达硬件造成的观测偏差等造成的。     

莺歌海盆地中新统海相烃源岩有机相特征

为了实现莺歌海盆地中新统海相烃源岩的精细划分与评价,结合地球化学测试资料,对莺歌海盆地中新统烃源岩进行有机相划分,建立了有机相与沉积相的对应关系,进而预测烃源岩的平面展布。研究结果表明,按照有机质来源与沉积环境可将莺歌海盆地中新统海相烃源岩分为4类：海相陆源型、海相混源Ⅰ型、海相混源Ⅱ型、海相内源型。不同有机相与沉积相对应关系较好,其中,扇三角洲、滨海相对应海相陆源型,内浅海对应海相混源Ⅰ型,外浅海、半深海对应海相混源Ⅱ型,外浅海、半深海和深海对应海相内源型。海相混源Ⅱ型烃源岩分布广,厚度大,有机质丰度较高,有机质类型以Ⅱ2型干酪根为主,少量Ⅲ型干酪根,保存条件较好,是莺歌海盆地的主要气源岩。研究成果为预测莺歌海盆地中新统海相优质烃源岩的平面展布并准确评价其资源潜力提供了重要依据。     

IPTA监测圣佩德罗湾港口地表时序沉降

常规D-InSAR技术已成功应用于由于火山、地震等引起的地表形变监测,然而受时间失相干和大气延迟等影响,该技术监测地表沉降形变的精度只能达厘米级。本文以美国圣佩德罗湾港口为研究对象,采用干涉点目标分析(IPTA)技术,选用二维线性相位模型对时序差分干涉相位图迭代回归分析,逐次去除大气延迟、DEM误差以及噪声等的影响,最终提取出准确可靠的形变序列相位信息。结果证明IPTA技术对长期微小的地壳累积形变探测具有广阔的应用前景,而且IPTA技术在实现效率和数据存储方面都优于常规的PS-InSAR。     

莺歌海盆地DF1-1-11井有孔虫生物地层与沉积环境研究

结合ODP184航次及2008年"国际地层表"等研究成果,对莺歌海盆地基准井DF1-1-11井岩屑地层(630～3508 m)的有孔虫定量分析资料进行研究,建立可靠的生物地层及年代地层格架,并通过对钻井中有孔虫丰度、分异度、浮游比例、组合特征及古水深估算分析,讨论了DF1-1一11井中中新世以来的沉积环境演化.研究结果...     

地震应急避难场所管理系统建设

采用开源的java编程语言,基于Internet技术的B/S架构(Browser/Server结构),根据避难场所经纬度信息设计并实现了地震信息应急避难场所系统建设。该系统提供吉林省应急避难场所规模、位置、容纳人数等信息,实现快速定位,结合百度地图直观呈现,最终实现了对吉林省全省境内所有应急避难场所信息汇总展示,可以让公众最大限度地了解吉林省内应急避难场所的分布、作用和基本功能。实现信息综合查询服务功能和科学化管理,从而为震后高效安置和救助灾民提供有力保障,同时可以提高地震应急公众服务能力,完善科学管理方式。