Variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment during the Holocene and the past 50 kyr

All absolute paleointensity data published in peer-reviewed journals were recently compiled in the GEOMAGIA50 database. Based on the information in GEOMAGIA50, we reconstruct variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment over the past 50  kyr, with a focus on the Holocene period. A running-window approach is used to determine the axial dipole moment that provides the optimal least-squares fit to the paleointensity data, whereas associated error estimates are constrained using a bootstrap procedure. We subsequently compare the reconstruction from this study with previous reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole moment, including those based on cosmogenic radionuclides (¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C). This comparison generally lends support to the axial dipole moments obtained in this study. Our reconstruction shows that the evolution of the dipole moment was highly dynamic, and the recently observed rates of change (5% per century) do not appear unique. We observe no apparent link between the occurrence of archeomagnetic jerks and changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment, suggesting that archeomagnetic jerks most likely represent drastic changes in the orientation of the geomagnetic dipole axis or periods characterized by large secular variation of the non-dipole field. This study also shows that the Holocene geomagnetic dipole moment was high compared to that of the preceding  40  kyr, and that  4 · 10²²  Am² appears to represent a critical threshold below which geomagnetic excursions and reversals occur.     

Present-day and future precipitation in the Baltic Sea region as simulated in a suite of regional climate models

Here we investigate simulated changes in the precipitation climate over the Baltic Sea and surrounding land areas for the period 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990. We analyze precipitation in 10 regional climate models taking part in the European PRUDENCE project. Forced by the same global driving climate model, the mean of the regional climate model simulations captures the observed climatological precipitation over the Baltic Sea runoff land area to within 15% in each month, while single regional models have errors up to 25%. In the future climate, the precipitation is projected to increase in the Baltic Sea area, especially during winter. During summer increased precipitation in the north is contrasted with a decrease in the south of this region. Over the Baltic Sea itself the future change in the seasonal cycle of precipitation is markedly different in the regional climate model simulations. We show that the sea surface temperatures have a profound impact on the simulated hydrological cycle over the Baltic Sea. The driving global climate model used in the common experiment projects a very strong regional increase in summertime sea surface temperature, leading to a significant increase in precipitation. In addition to the common experiment some regional models have been forced by either a different set of Baltic Sea surface temperatures, lateral boundary conditions from another global climate model, a different emission scenario, or different initial conditions. We make use of the large number of experiments in the PRUDENCE project, providing an ensemble consisting of more than 25 realizations of climate change, to illustrate sources of uncertainties in climate change projections.     

Recent observations of meteotsunamis on the Finnish coast

We present four case studies of exceptional wave events of meteorological origin, observed on the Finnish coast in the summers of 2010 and 2011. Eyewitnesses report unusually rapid and strong sea-level variations (up to 1 m in 5–15 min) and strong oscillating currents during these events. High-resolution sea-level measurements confirm the eyewitness observations, but the oscillations recorded by tide gauges mostly have a considerably smaller amplitude. The oscillations coincide with sudden jumps in surface air pressure at coastal observation stations, related to the passage of squall lines or gust fronts. These fronts propagate above the sea at a resonant speed, allowing efficient energy transfer between the atmospheric disturbance and the sea wave that it generates. Thus, we interpret the observed sea-level oscillations as small meteotsunamis, long tsunami-like waves generated by meteorological processes and resonance effects.     

Interaction of the Large Magellanic Cloud with the halo population and the companions of the Galaxy

Numerical simulations have been performed in order to study the gravitational interaction between the outlying population of the Galaxy and the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). The following effects have been noted: (1) halo objects are partially removed from the orbital distance of the LMC such that a local minimum is created in the radial density profile; (2) a large number of halo objects go into escape orbits. This possibility makes the determination of the mass of the Galaxy by virial theorem arguments unreliable; (3) the orbit of the LMC decays faster than what one would expect on the basis of the classical dynamical friction calculation. The excess friction derives from three-body effects, which are not accounted for in the classical dynamical friction. Finally, the fates of globular clusters and dwarf galaxies near the Galaxy and the LMC are discussed.     

Constraints on majoron models, neutrino masses and baryogenesis

We derive strong constraints on the Yukawa couplings and the vacuum expectation value in the singlet majoron model. The presence of a small gravitationally induced mass for the majoron can be used to set a constraint on its vacuum expectation value. If the singlet symmetry breaking scale is larger than the electroweak symmetry breaking scale, lepton number violating interactions in equilibrium with electroweak sphaleron interactions would destroy any prior baryon asymmetry. If the baryon asymmetry is not generated at the electroweak scale or later, strong bounds on the Yukawa couplings h 10⁻⁷ and VEVs v_s < v_EW are derived. We also carefully rederive baryogenesis bounds on neutrino masses, finding that in general they apply not to the masses themselves, but only to related parameters, and they are numerically somewhat less stringent than has previously been claimed.     

Symplectic Tangent map for Planetary Motions

Equations are presented for the computation of tangent maps for use in nearly Keplerian motion, approximated by use of a symplectic leapfrog map. The resulting algorithms constitute more accurate and efficient methods to obtain the Liapunov exponents and the state transition matrix, and can be used to study chaos in planetary motions, as well as in orbit determination procedures from observations. Applications include planetary systems, satellite motions and hierarchical, nearly Keplerian systems in general. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On the stability of high inclination Trojans

Numerical integrations have been performed for orbits of Venus', Earth's and Mars' Trojan-asteroid test particles in a self consistent model of the solar system to study the stability of inclined Trojan orbits. In the case of Mars low inclination orbits tend to be unstable while the contrary seems to apply to Venus and Earth, although the stability of some very high inclination orbits may not be excluded on the basis of these computations.     

GCM-based regional temperature and precipitation change estimates for Europe under four SRES scenarios applying a super-ensemble pattern-scaling method

Seasonal GCM-based temperature and precipitation projections for the end of the 21st century are presented for five European regions; projections are compared with corresponding estimates given by the PRUDENCE RCMs. For most of the six global GCMs studied, only responses to the SRES A2 and B2 forcing scenarios are available. To formulate projections for the A1FI and B1 forcing scenarios, a super-ensemble pattern-scaling technique has been developed. This method uses linear regression to represent the relationship between the local GCM-simulated response and the global mean temperature change simulated by a simple climate model. The method has several advantages: e.g., the noise caused by internal variability is reduced, and the information provided by GCM runs performed with various forcing scenarios is utilized effectively. The super-ensemble method proved especially useful when only one A2 and one B2 simulation is available for an individual GCM. Next, 95% probability intervals were constructed for regional temperature and precipitation change, separately for the four forcing scenarios, by fitting a normal distribution to the set of projections calculated by the GCMs. For the high-end of the A1FI uncertainty interval, temperature increases close to 10°C could be expected in the southern European summer and northern European winter. Conversely, the low-end warming estimates for the B1 scenario are ~ 1°C. The uncertainty intervals of precipitation change are quite broad, but the mean estimate is one of a marked increase in the north in winter and a drastic reduction in the south in summer. In the RCM simulations driven by a single global model, the spread of the temperature and precipitation projections tends to be smaller than that in the GCM simulations, but it is possible to reduce this disparity by employing several driving models for all RCMs. In the present suite of simulations, the difference between the mean GCM and RCM projections is fairly small, regardless of the number or driving models applied.     

Faults in crystalline rock and the estimation of their mechanical properties at the Olkiluoto site,western Finland

Brittle deformation zones at the Olkiluoto nuclear repository site in western Finland play critical roles in the strength and hydrology of the host rock mass. We present a procedure implemented there for incorporating information on deformation zones obtained through boreholes into quantitative engineering design. First, ductile and brittle deformation zones are classified based on their characteristics in drillhole cores as brittle joint clusters, brittle fault zones, or semi-brittle fault zones, with an awareness of the geologic processes that caused the zones to develop as they did. Next, it is shown that the mechanical properties of the brittle deformation zones can be calculated by one of several methods, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. The site geology must be kept in mind at all stages to arrive at meaningful estimates of the mechanical properties of the deformation zones.     

Discovery of an asteroid and quasi‐satellite in an Earth‐like horseshoe orbit

Abstract— The newly discovered asteroid 2002 AA₂₉ moves in a very Earth‐like orbit that relative to Earth has a unique horseshoe shape and allows transitions to a quasi‐satellite state. This is the first body known to be in a simple heliocentric horseshoe orbit, moving along its parent planet's orbit. It is similarly also the first true co‐orbital object of Earth, since other asteroids in 1:1 resonance with Earth have orbits very dissimilar from that of our planet. When a quasi‐satellite, it remains within 0.2 AU of the Earth for several decades. 2002 AA₂₉ is the first asteroid known to exhibit this behavior. 2002 AA₂₉ introduces an important new class of objects offering potential targets for space missions and clues to asteroid orbit transfer evolution.