多交通方式实时信息影响下的通勤者出行行为

为确定实时信息对于出行行为的影响,探索了手机APP提供多交通方式实时出行者信息下的通勤者交通方式选择行为。采用意向调查方法,获取了上海市居民在提供包含两条自驾路线（以高架为主和以地面为主）和一条停车换乘地铁路线的实时交通信息情况下的交通方式选择行为数据。运用描述性分析和多元logit模型,得到了交通方式选择的主要影响因素。研究发现,通勤者的驾龄、家庭私家车数量、开车频率、获取交通信息频率、停车换乘设施使用经历等个体属性,行程时间和车厢拥挤程度等信息内容,会显著影响出行决策。此外,提出了对交通规划与管理和多交通方式出行者信息系统研发有指导意义的建议。     

Arboreality predicts Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection level in tropical direct-developing frogs

Pathogen-mediated changes in host behaviour can result from hosts altering their habitat preferences. Although infection risk with pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in amphibians is associated with environments favouring its growth, the relationship with microhabitat use has not been examined. Here, we aim to determine if microhabitats used by frogs during their nocturnal activity predict B. dendrobatidis prevalence and infection intensity. Our focal host, Eleutherodactylus coqui, is a habitat generalist that uses multiple habitats from the forest floor to the canopy. We analysed data on B. dendrobatidis occurrence in 157 adults and 122 juveniles at El Yunque National forest in Puerto Rico. We categorized each individual’s nocturnal microhabitat as forest floor, curled palm fronds in the floor, arboreal bromeliads and foliage or tree trunks 50 cm to 2.5 m above ground. We found that frogs on the forest floor had the greatest B. dendrobatidis prevalence (73%), compared with those active in vegetation above ground (55%). Overall, the probability of B. dendrobatidis infection in frogs using microhabitats on the forest floor was twice as great as for those on arboreal substrates. Differences in B. dendrobatidis prevalence and intensity in E. coqui may be explained by specific abiotic conditions of microenvironments (temperature and humidity) affecting both pathogen and host, and by the age-specific ecological requirements of hosts. Adults were found to be most active in microhabitats where individuals had lower infection burdens, suggesting pathogen-modulated habitat choice. This work has important implications for the evolutionary dynamics of enzootic diseases and provides data that may inform potential mitigation strategies against a generalist amphibian pathogen.     

可交易通行权和鼓励合乘政策下的通勤选择

基于通勤个体易于接受的视角,借助常数替代弹性(constant elasticity of substitution,CES)效用函数,在通勤预算约束中引入管理部门对拼车通勤行为的支持系数,构建了基于可交易电子通行权及鼓励合乘组合政策的刚性通勤需求模型,在此基础上分析了通勤个体的通勤方式选择问题.研究结果显示,该组合政策可以有效引导通勤个体从单人驾驶转向合乘出行,通勤个体能够在降低原有出行预算的基础上保证自身的刚性出行需求,但对小汽车偏好较大的通勤个体预算降低幅度相对较小.此外,存在一个调整因子和合乘支持系数的取值可行域,对于不同的合乘支持系数,调整因子存在一个对应的下界.在设定调整因子和合乘支持系数后,通行权价格由市场唯一确定,且这一价格随着合乘支持系数的增加而增加,调整因子的增加而降低.     

暧昧与国际资产组合选择

本文考察了当资产存在暧昧不确定性时的国际资产组合选择问题.本文以Maccheroni,Marinacci和Ruffino提出的模型框架为基础,对世界上26个主要国家和地区的跨国资产组合选择进行了实证情况的度量和判断,利用横截面和短面板存在异方差的OLS回归模型(包括混合OLS和加入固定与随机效应考虑的回归).可以发现,国内投资者更倾向于持有与国内资产相似、但纯风险更小,暧昧风险补偿为正的国外资本.另外,在选取的样本国中发现存在本地偏好的情况.     

定制公交居民出行方式选择的影响因素

掌握影响定制公交选择概率的因素,对于定制公交的运营管理具有重要作用。结合广义Logit回归模型和条件Logit回归模型的混合模型,将居民个人属性与出行方案属性同时考虑进出行方式效用函数中。根据定制公交的在旅途距离及服务水平的设置定位,选取定制公交、出租车与常规公交作为出行选择集。运用问卷调查数据进行模型参数拟合,得到不同影响因素对于出行方式的边际效用和分布概率的影响。通过拟合结果,得到出行价格变量的系数在常规公交及定制公交1的效用函数中绝对值较大,分别为0.195 4和0.117 3,而在定制公交2和出租车的效用函数中绝对值较小,分别为0.156 1和0.057 1。行程时间变量在定制公交2和出租车效用函数中的绝对值较大,分别为0.073 5和0.080 7,在常规公交和定制公交1的效用函数中绝对值较小,分别为0.020 4和0.015 0。说明定制公交的服务需根据潜在乘客的出行价格及出行时间敏感度进行设置,研究结果对设置定制公交运营策略具有重要参考意义。     

社会困境中博弈决策的理论模型与神经机制

简要介绍社会困境的涵义,详细阐述博弈决策的理性选择理论、认知转换理论和生物进化理论,并且从认知控制、社会认知以及奖励预期3个过程揭示博弈决策的神经机制.未来研究应力求突破先前理论模型的不足,深入考察个体合作行为的神经机制,并向实际应用领域发展.     

论中国企业社会责任制度的建构

我国企业的社会责任在制度选择上应该实行经济制度、道德制度、法律制度并举,并逐渐把经济、伦理、道德制度中成熟的、行之有效的规则转化为更具明确性、约束力的法律制度;与此同时也应预防过苛求企业的社会责任的思想,以避免使企业社会责任制度的设立宗旨落空。     

“水上嘉年华”区位选择的影响因子分析——以成都“移动水世界”和江阴“韩国之夏”为例

成都的“移动水世界”和江阴的“韩国之夏”均为引进韩国专利技术建立的室外季节性可拆卸式水上休闲娱乐项目,其设施、运营模式、客源市场都相似,但最终经济效益大相径庭.本文从理论上予以分析,着重对比了“移动水世界”和“韩国之夏”在区位上的差异性:江阴每年夏天的平均气温和晴天数均高于成都同期；江阴人均GDP为成都的3倍,恩格尔系...     

Reproductive strategies of two sympatric species of Hyalella Smith, 1874 (Amphipoda,Dogielinotidae) in laboratory conditions

This study was performed in order to test theoretical predictions that sympatric species might show different reproductive strategies to facilitate their coexistence. The duration of precopulatory mate‐guarding behaviour, body size of ovigerous females, embryonic and postembryonic development time, fecundity, and viability of the sympatric amphipod species Hyalella pleoacuta and H. castroi were investigated under laboratory conditions (19±1°C and 12 h light/dark photoperiod). Specimens were collected with nets in autumn and spring 2004, and summer and winter 2005 in the Vale das Trutas, São José dos Ausentes County, southern Brazil, and transported to the laboratory. Both species of Hyalella showed similar reproductive strategies, especially in respect to the duration of the precopula, duration of the embryonic period, and fecundity. However, these species differed in body size of ovigerous females, duration of the postembryonic period, viability, and body size of juveniles that remained in the marsupium and those released by females. These differences in the reproductive traits of H. pleoacuta and H. castroi may facilitate their coexistence in nature.     

试论10kV配电无功补偿应用

基于无功补偿对电网的安全、优质、经济运行具有重要作用,因此,无功补偿方式的选择和补偿装置的安装、运行维护非常重要。笔者通过工程实例,对10 kV配电无功补偿进行了探讨。