含腐蚀凹坑尿素合成塔的安全评定与分析

对尿素合成塔上封头腐蚀凹坑采用中国SAPV-95和美国API579规范分别进行安全评定，给出安全裕度，简略分析安全评定的结果。     

Non-parametric empirical Bayes procedure

In this paper we introduce an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating an unknown parameter, say θ. This procedure gives the empirical Bayes estimator for θ and its associated minimum posterior risk in closed forms without estimating the unknown prior density function of θ. In such procedure the posterior probability density function of θ is not required. A sufficient statistic for θ with conditional probability density function in the one parameter exponential family is required. Instead of estimating the unknown prior density function, the marginal density function of the sufficient statistic must be estimated. As special cases the empirical Bayes estimators and their respective minimum posterior risks of the failure rate for the exponential distribution, the unknown scale parameters of Weibull and gamma distributions are obtained in simple forms as special cases. Numerical results and a simulation study are introduced to (i) investigate how the number of available past experiments and the sample size of each influence the accuracy of the empirical Bayes estimator, (ii) make a comparison between the presented procedure and the Bayes procedure when the prior probability density function of the parameter θ is gamma.     

Surveillance test policy optimization through genetic algorithms using non-periodic intervention frequencies and considering seasonal constraints

In order to maximize systems average availability during a given period of time, it has recently been developed a non-periodic surveillance test optimization methodology based on genetic algorithms (GA). The fact of allowing non-periodic tests turns the solution space much more flexible and schedules can be better adjusted, providing gains in the overall system average availability, when compared to those obtained by an optimized periodic test scheme. This approach, however, turns the optimization problem more complex. Hence, the use of a powerful optimization technique, such as GA, is required.Considering that some particular features of certain systems can turn it advisable to introduce other specific constraints in the optimization problem, this work investigates the application of seasonal constraints for the set of the Emergency Diesel Generation of a typical four-loop pressurized water reactor in order to planning and optimizing its surveillance test policy. In this analysis, the growth of the blackout accident probability during summer, due to electrical power demand increases, was considered. Here, the used model penalizes surveillance test interventions when the blackout probability is higher.Results demonstrate the ability of the method in adapting the surveillance test policy to seasonal constraints. The knowledge acquired by the GA during the searching process has lead to test schedules that drastically minimize test interventions at periods of high blackout probability. It is compensated by more frequent redistributed tests through the periods of low blackout probability in order to improve on the overall average availability at the system level.     

An economic and environmental assessment of biomass utilization in lignite‐fired power plants of Greece

The environmental and socio‐economic impacts of biomass utilization by co‐firing with brown coal in an existing thermoelectric unit in Greece or through its pure combustion in a new plant were studied and evaluated in this work. The 125 MW_e lignite‐fired power plant in Ptolemais Power Station (Western Macedonia) was used as reference system. The environmental benefits of the alternative biomass exploitation options were quantified based on the life cycle assessment methodology, as established by SETAC, while the BIOSEM technique was used to carry out socio‐economic calculations. The obtained results showed clear environmental benefits of both biomass utilization alternatives in comparison with the reference system. In addition, co‐firing biomass with lignite in an existing unit outperforms the combustion of biomass exclusively in a new plant, since it exhibits a better environmental performance and it is a low risk investment with immediate benefits. A biomass combustion unit requires a considerably higher capital investment and its benefits are more evident in the long run. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

增加黄金储备规避外汇风险

近几年，我国外汇储备逐年增加，而美元汇率偏弱，使我国承担很大的外汇风险。为了规避外汇风险，应增加黄金储备。文中提出了我国增加黄金储备总量的理由以及增加黄金储备的途径。这些建议具有可操作性，可以提供给有关部门参考。     

Fetal Neurobehavioral Development: A Tale of Two Cities.

Longitudinal neurobehavioral development was examined in 237 fetuses of low-risk pregnancies from 2 distinct populations-Baltimore, Maryland, and Lima. Peru-at 20. 24. 28. 32, 36. and 38 weeks gestation. Data were based on digitized Doppler-based fetal heart rate (FHR) and fetal movement (FM). In both groups. FHR declined while variability, episodic accelerations, and FM-FHR coupling increased, with discontinuities evident between 28 and 32 weeks gestation. Fetuses in Lima had higher FHR and lower variability, accelerations, and FM-FHR coupling. Declines in trajectories were typically observed 1 month sooner in Lima, which magnified these disparities. Motor activity differences were less consistent. No sex differences in fetal neurobehaviors were detected. It is concluded that population factors can influence the developmental niche of the fetus. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

高坝风险分析的事件树法

新世纪一批高坝将要在我国开工建设,这对我国的水电能源及国民经济的发展有着不可估量的作用,而高坝建设中,安全性是需要首先保证的。目前对高坝的风险分析方法有主观概率法、客观概率法等。从系统工程的角度出发,采用事件树方法对高坝的风险进行了探索研究,并给出了算例以说明该方法的有效性和实用性。     

Gender differences in computerised and conventional educational tests

Abstract Research has demonstrated girls to outperform boys on conventional literacy tests. The present studies concern gender differences on computerised educational tests. Seventy-one children were tested using LASS Secondary and a set of seven conventional measures. No significant gender differences were found on any of the LASS Secondary modules, although females did outperform males on a conventional spelling test. A further 126 pupils were tested on computerised and paper versions of the LASS Secondary reading, spelling and reasoning modules. No gender differences were found on the computerised versions, but there were significant differences on the paper versions of the reading and spelling modules favouring females. In a third study, 45 children were administered computerised and paper versions of the LASS Junior reading and spelling modules. There were no significant differences on the computerised modules, but girls performed significantly higher than boys on the paper version of the spelling module. It is possible that computerised assessment does not detect the established gender effect due to differences between males and females in motivation, computer experience and competitiveness. Further large-scale studies are necessary to confirm these findings.     

Technical risk involved in long-term operation of steam turbines

The scope of the paper is the assessment of the technical risk involved in long-term operation of power units. Detailed analyses have been conducted for steam turbine components. The sources and consequences of risk have been identified and the probability of turbine components failure calculated. The quantitative assessment of the risk has been made and possibilities of its reduction discussed.     

Distinctive Features of Minimization of a Risk Functional in Mass Data Sets

A statistical learning model is considered within the framework of the theory of uniform convergence of frequencies of errors in the case where the convergence is violated as a result of increasing the informativeness of training examples. Drawbacks of nonconstructive refinements of Vapnik-Chervonenkis estimates based on an assumption on the distribution law of violations are shown. A new approach to obtaining constructive estimates for mass data sets is proposed.