Markov analysis of qualitative dynamics1

Common sense sometimes predicts events to be likely or unlikely rather than merely possible. We extend methods of qualitative reasoning to predict the relative likelihoods of possible qualitative behaviors by viewing the dynamics of a system as a Markov chain over its transition graph. This involves adding qualitative or quantitative estimates of transition probabilities to each of the transitions and applying the standard theory of Markov chains to distinguish persistent states from transient states and to calculate recurrence times, settling times, and probabilities for ending up in each state. Much of the analysis depends solely on qualitative estimates of transition probabilities, which follow directly from theoretical considerations and which lead to qualitative predictions about entire classes of systems. Quantitative estimates for specific systems are derived empirically and lead to qualitative and quantitative conclusions, most of which are insensitive to small perturbations in the estimated transition probabilities. The algorithms are straightforward and efficient.     

Elastoplastic modelling of subsurface crack growth in rail/wheel contact problems

Propagation of small subsurface cracks subjected to shear under repeated rolling contact load is studied. An analytical crack model (Dugdale) with plastic strips at the two crack tips is employed. Compressive stresses promoting crack closure and friction between crack faces are considered. The triaxial stress state is used in the yield criterion. A damage criterion is suggested based on experimental LCF data. In a numerical study, critical crack lengths are found below which propagation of an existing crack should be effectively suppressed.     

行政权力腐败的模型分析及治理对策

腐败是与政府行政权力相伴生的痼疾，既是一个历史现象又是一个国际现象。贪污腐败和寻租腐败是委托一代理模型中最典型的腐败方式，文章在此基础上对贪污腐败和寻租腐败进行成本一收益分析和市场均衡分析，并探讨治理行政权力腐败的有效途径。     

A direct estimate of JIc from the load versus load-line displacement record

The purpose of this study is to examine the current standard fracture toughness test procedure to determine if there could be an easier method to get a J_Ic value from the test record. The current method for determining J_Ic involves a detailed computational and construction procedure. The objective in this study is to simplify the analysis for the determination of J_Ic. The results of this study show that the load and displacement record for a fracture toughness test can be used to directly estimate a J_Q value, a provisional value for fracture toughness, J_Ic. The J value taken at the maximum load point can be used along with an adjustment factor to estimate a J_Q value. This J_Q estimate is close to the one obtained from the construction procedure of ASTM Standard E 1820. When a unit‐sized specimen is tested, that is, a specimen with a width of 50 mm and a thickness of 25 mm the maximum load point provides a direct estimate of J_Q. Other sizes require a size adjustment factor, which is simply a square root relationship between the width of the test specimen and a unit width. The proposed new method of estimating J_Q is simple in concept and requires a minimum number of calculations. It appears to produce values of J_Q which are comparable to those obtained from the ASTM E1820 construction procedure and may produce less scatter.     

Grand theories of personality cannot be integrated.

Comments on the original article "A New Big Five: Fundamental Principles for an Integrative Science of Personality," by Dan P. McAdams and Jennifer L. Pals (see record 2006-03947-002). McAdams and Pals (April 2006) presented a new model to integrate the field of personality psychology. Cultural and evolutionary factors interact with an individual's basic traits, characteristic adaptations, and life narratives, which in turn are linked to roles, demands, and behaviors. The current authors welcome McAdams and Pals's (2006) model for providing a way to integrate much of the previously disparate empirical findings in personality psychology. However, the current authors also think that McAdams and Pals (2006) overstated the inclusiveness of the model, and more generally, the current authors dispute their assertion that the grand theories of personality can be integrated within a single model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

A longitudinal examination of the social-cognitive model applied to high school girls' choices of nontraditional college majors and aspirations.

This study tested a partial version of R. W. Lent, S. D. Brown, and G. Hackett's (1994) social-cognitive career theory model. Among 204 high school girls who attended science, math, and engineering (SME) career conferences, the authors used a 4-year longitudinal design to predict the choice of an SME college major and SME self-efficacy and outcome expectations in college. In addition, among students who had declared SME majors, variables assessed in high school and college were used to predict aspirations to become leaders in SME fields. The results generally provided empirical validation of the model. Regression analyses revealed that college SME outcome expectations were associated with plans to become a leader in an SME field. Implications for research and interventions are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

油气集输系统新增产能建设拓扑优化方法研究

在油气集输新增产能建设中,为充分利用已建管网系统的处理能力,达到降低投资,提高经济效益的目的,进行了油气集输新增产能建设布局优化方法的研究。针对新建集输管网为树状结构的情况,建立了油气集输系统新增产能建设拓扑优化的数学模型,讨论了计算复杂性问题。根据模型的特点,将问题分解为拓扑级优化和几何级优化两个子问题,并通过它们之间的迭代进行求解。实例计算表明,所建立的数学模型正确,求解方法可行,能用于工程实际设计。     

反拍卖采购:一种新的采购模式

反拍卖采购技术以其新的理念和对信息技术的融合，能够使企业采购成本大幅度降低。通过对我国传统采购模式与反拍卖采购模式的对比分析，可以了解到反拍卖采购技术的应用前景。