THE NUMÉRAIRE PROPERTY AND LONG‐TERM GROWTH OPTIMALITY FOR DRAWDOWN‐CONSTRAINED INVESTMENTS

We consider the portfolio choice problem for a long‐run investor in a general continuous semimartingale model. We combine the decision criterion of pathwise growth optimality with a flexible specification of attitude toward risk, encoded by a linear drawdown constraint imposed on admissible wealth processes. We define the constrained numéraire property through the notion of expected relative return and prove that drawdown‐constrained numéraire portfolio exists and is unique, but may depend on the investment horizon. However, when sampled at the times of its maximum and asymptotically as the time‐horizon becomes distant, the drawdown‐constrained numéraire portfolio is given explicitly through a model‐independent transformation of the unconstrained numéraire portfolio. The asymptotically growth‐optimal strategy is obtained as limit of numéraire strategies on finite horizons.     

Inventory investment and financial constraints in the Italian manufacturing industry: A panel data GMM approach

Three large unbalanced panels of Italian manufacturing firms observed over the period 1991–2009 are employed to assess, by means of a dynamic GMM approach, whether the existence of financial frictions is suitable to explain deviations of inventories from their long-run path. A negative response of inventory investment to the presence of financial burdens might provide evidence of a significant role played by the financial framework in conditioning the real side of the economy, especially during recession years, when liquidity problems arise. The negative effect is found over the entire analyzed period, with firms' dimensional aspects accounting more than risk characteristics to explain the phenomenon, but the inclusion of recessionary dummies into the model leads to controversial and puzzling results. A significant recessionary effect is found during the Nineties, accounting for inventories being more sensitive to financial frictions during the main recessionary peaks, 1993 and 1996. The result is not confirmed by the most recent estimates, especially the ones referring to the 2008–2009 recessionary shock, whose effects are investigated for the first time by a paper addressing the inventory investment–financial constraints subject. Alternative hypothesis for the proposed results have been tested on data. Firms were found to rely on inventory decumulation to a lesser extent compared to the past, to generate internal financing. More specifically, disinvestments in financial assets were found to represent, as a matter of fact, one of the main drivers adopted to ease liquidity tensions: a negative and strongly significant relationship with inventory investment was detected, after controlling for short-run liquidity constraints at firm level. By contrast, only a weak negative relationship was established with fixed capital during the same recessionary biennium.     

吉林省农村经济发展中的金融约束分析

金融作为现代经济的核心,是经济发展的重要推动力量。在当前建设社会主义新农村过程中,农村金融肩负着重要的历史使命,但是吉林省目前农村金融体系的制度性缺陷,直接融资渠道匮乏,非正规金融的先天不足,已经成为吉林省农村经济发展中的制约因素。     

论我国政府主导型国企制度变迁深化的必然及约束

政府主导型制度变迁是国有企业制度变迁的路径依赖之一，这是由客观的社会经济条件决定的。国企制度在同一轨迹上的变迁在取得巨大收益之后已进入边际效益递减、制度容量饱和的阶段，向更高效 水平的制度演进已成为必然。然而，政府主导型制度变迁也面临着政治竞争、交易费用、政治家效用函数、效率与稳定两难选择及其他体制性问题的约束。制度的进一步创新需要政治体制的相应调整、需要坚持政府主导型变迁方式，需要其他外部力量的影响。     

What Affects New and Established Firms’ Expansion? Evidence from Small Firms in Russia

Research on financial constraints of very small firms is scarce because it is difficult to observe and measure their transactions. Previous studies on small enterprises in post-communist countries have focused either on the effect of financing constraints on business growth (Budina et al., 2000, Economics of Transition 8(2), 453–475; Bratkowski et al., 2000, Economics of Transition 8(1), 101–116) or on the effect of property rights (Johnson et al., 2002, American Economic Review 92(5), 1335–1357). This paper provides evidence on both. It turns out that financing constraints and property rights considerations affects investment in firms of different age differently. Younger firms face higher information costs and their expansion is more dependent on the availability of internal funds than is the expansion of older firms. This paper also finds that while the financial sector did not channel funds to the most successful businesses, there is evidence that loans were given to firms that had more transparent transactions. Results also indicate that the security of property rights does not influence investment in young firms, which is interpreted to mean that only the most efficient entrepreneurs entered the market. In older small firms, investment is negatively influenced by the index of security of property rights suggesting that these firms might have “secured” their property rights by bribes. Improvements in the security of property rights, therefore, would help more micro enterprises to be born as well as decrease transaction cost of established enterprises.      

Is the Dutch consumer a true ricardian?

Summary In this paper the intertemporal optimization approach is adopted in order to estimate an empirical version of Blanchard's (1985) overlapping generations model. The observed sluggishness in consumption is incorporated into the model by recognizing both durability and habit formation as relevant determinants of total consumption. The model is estimated using quarterly data for The Netherlands from 1969:I to 1990:IV. The empirical estimates suggest that the status of the Dutch consumer as a true Ricardian is unambiguously rejected. The results furthermore suggest that this rejection is due to the existence of both liquidity constraints and finite planning horizons.Comments by Peter Broer, Jeroen Kremers, Debora Molenaar, Rick van der Ploeg, Frans Spinnewyn, Casper de Vries, Ed Westerhout and two anonymous referees are very much appreciated. Elbert Dijkgraaf has provided invaluable research assistance. We also thank participants of the OCFEB workshop and the CES seminar at the K.U. Leuven for their comments.     

融资约束抑或过度投资——中国上市企业投资一现金流敏感度的经验证据

本文以中国上市企业为分析样本，通过检验现金持有量对投资一现金流敏感度的影响，考察企业中的融资约束和代理）中突。结果显示，融资约束与过度投资导致企业投资支出与内部现金流密切相关。民营企业、大规模地方国有企业中存在过度投资，所持有的现金具有明显的壕沟效应、进一步提高投资一现金流敏感度。而中、小规模国有企业面临的融资约束比较突出，为了抵御外部融资约束，持有现金充当对）中工具、降低投资一现金流敏感度。     

融资约束抑或过度投资——中国上市企业投资—现金流敏感度的经验证据

本文以中国上市企业为分析样本,通过检验现金持有量对投资—现金流敏感度的影响,考察企业中的融资约束和代理冲突。结果显示,融资约束与过度投资导致企业投资支出与内部现金流密切相关。民营企业、大规模地方国有企业中存在过度投资,所持有的现金具有明显的壕沟效应、进一步提高投资—现金流敏感度。而中、小规模国有企业面临的融资约束比较突出,为了抵御外部融资约束,持有现金充当对冲工具、降低投资—现金流敏感度。     

Give Macroeconomic Stability and Growth in Russia a Chance

This paper identifies and investigates conceptual and empirical links among Russia's disappointing growth performance of the mid-1990s, its costly and eventually unsuccessful stabilization, the macroeconomic meltdown of 1998 and the spectacular rise of non-payments. Non-payments developed into a system that flourished in an atmosphere of fundamental inconsistency between a macroeconomic policy geared at sharp disinflation and a microeconomic policy of bailing-out enterprises through soft budget constraints. It embodies a large volume of untargeted, implicit subsidies in the order of 7–10 per cent of GDP, which has stifled growth, contributed to the 1998 meltdown through its impact on public debt and made at best a questionable contribution to equity. The overwhelming priority at this point is to dismantle this system, thereby promoting enterprise restructuring and growth (by hardening budget constraints) and medium-term macroeconomic stability (by reducing the size of the subsidies).     

Bank Concentration and Firm Investment: Empirical Evidence from India

This paper investigates the impact of bank concentration on firm-level investment across firm groups classified according to size, investment destination, and debt maturity structure. Using data of 302 manufacturing firms for the period 2000-2009, we show that elevated financial constraints are associated with small and medium-size enterprises and firms that are dependent on short-term debt and exhibit high levels of sensitivity of investment to cash flow. Our empirical finding confirms that bank concentration exerts a positive impact on firms' financial constraints on investment. This effect is more pronounced for small firms and firms dependent on short-term debt. However, our results are indifferent to domestic versus foreign investing firm groups.