不同土壤含水量的动态临界雨量拟定方法研究

由于资料缺乏和对临界雨量分析不足等问题,部分山洪防治地区山洪预警效果不佳。基于流域降雨径流关系,结合流域土壤含水量和前期实测降雨量,计算了河道洪峰流量达到安全泄量所需的下一时段降雨量（临界雨量）;并以最小二乘法准则拟合前期实测降雨与临界雨量之间的函数关系,建立了不同土壤含水量等级下的动态临界雨量计算函数。依据试验流域隽水1964～2014年共38场具有代表性的典型洪水过程资料,对所建立的动态临界雨量计算函数进行检验,并开展山洪预警试验,合格率达到94.7%。表明该方法用于山洪预警在技术上是可行的。     

A coupled rainfall-runoff and runoff-routing model for adaptive real-time flood forecasting

This paper describes an adaptive hydrologic modelling technique for real-time flood forecasting. The modelling approach is based on a linear stochastic time-varying representation of the rainfall-runoff process and on the Muskingum routing method formulated as an optimal linear filtering problem. The most general stochastic rainfall-runoff model used for linear forecasting is known as the transfer function noise model. An on-line identification procedure based on an extension of the recursive Instrumental Variable estimator is discussed. The routing procedure, based on the Muskingum method, is written in a state-space representation. This allows real-time updating of the state and the system parameters by means of Kalman filtering. The described method is used to forecast extreme flood events for the River Ourthe (drainage basin: approx 3626 km²), one of the main tributaries of the River Meuse, Belgium. The method is compared with stationary modelling procedures and its superiority based on objective forecasting criteria is demonstrated.     

Sediment transport following water transfer from Yangtze River to Taihu Basin

To meet the increasing need of fresh water and to improve the water quality of Taihu Lake, water transfer from the Yangtze River was initiated in 2002. This study was performed to investigate the sediment distribution along the river course following water transfer. A rainfall-runoff model was first built to calculate the runoff of the Taihu Basin in 2003. Then, the flow patterns of river networks were simulated using a one-dimensional river network hydrodynamic model. Based on the boundary conditions of th...     

不同坡度和前期土壤含水率条件下裸地降雨产流试验研究

坡度和前期土壤含水率是降雨产流过程的重要影响因素。为研究华北半干旱地区的降雨产流机制,采用人工模拟降雨的方法,进行了不同坡度(5°、10°和15°)和前期土壤含水率(0.20、0.25和0.30)条件下的降雨产流试验。结果表明:在整个降雨产流过程中,地表径流量随坡度和前期土壤含水率的增加而增大,累积径流量与产流历时呈线性函数关系;土壤入渗率和产流滞时均随前期土壤含水率和坡度的增加而减小,且前期土壤含水率对土壤入渗率和产流滞时的影响较坡度更加明显;Horton模型对降雨入渗关系的拟合结果优于Kostiakov和Philip模型。     

栅格新安江-地表地下双人工调蓄分布式水文模型

为了提高地表地下双重人类活动干扰下的流域洪水模拟精度,基于调蓄水库概念提出了考虑地表水利工程和地下水超采影响下的网格化降雨径流模拟方法,通过在栅格新安江模型基础上引入地表地下双调蓄模块,构建了栅格新安江-地表地下双人工调蓄分布式水文(GXAJ-DAR)模型,将该模型同半分布式新安江-海河模型在海河的典型流域清水河流域进行了验证比较。结果表明：GXAJ-DAR模型在清水河流域的模拟精度高于新安江-海河模型;基于栅格的双调蓄结构能根据水利工程控制区域和地下水埋深的实际空间分布对地面和地下径流人工调蓄过程进行准确模拟;GXAJ-DAR模型对自由水蓄水库蓄水容量参数的取值较新安江-海河模型更加合理,能有效提高清水河流域的洪水模拟精度。     

Runoff changes simulated using a rainfall-runoff model

The Sacramento rainfall-runoff model has been used in experiments with 60 year daily series for the Czech part of the Labe River basin; simulations with decreased and/or increased inputs (precipitations, air temperature, evapotranspiration) provide results that could be used to appraise the runoff changes due to climatic warming.Simulations with the modified parameters are used for evaluation of runoff changes caused by landuse changes. For both purposes, the long-term data sets appear to be desirable; it is then possible to take into account accidental influences. The simulations also provide, as an output, the water contents in different zones of soil moisture; the relationships among evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and baseflow clearly appear in these results.     

连续API水文模型的研究及应用

连续API模型是传统的以前期影响雨量(Pa)为参数的降雨径流相关图法、单位线(或等时线)法与计算机技术相结合的产物,能预报连续的过程线.本文根据连续API模型原理,对模型参数进行改进,建立洪水预报模型应用于紧水滩流域,效果良好.     

聚合分解随机动态规划模型在梯级水库群发电调度中的应用研究

本文首先采用聚合分解思想将梯级水库群来水量和库容聚合等效为单库，从而简化水库群径流过程的描述和降低高维计算空间，使随机动态规划模型（SDP）在梯级水库群的应用中可以考虑更多的信息来提高模型效率；然后在径流预报中考虑美国全球预报系统（GFS）发布的未来10天降雨预报信息，来提高中期径流预报精度；最后在考虑径流预报不确定性的基础上建立了聚合分解贝叶斯随机动态规划模型（AD-BSDP）。同时与传统调度图、聚合来水量的随机动态规划模型（AF-SDP）和聚合来水量、库容的聚合分解随机动态规划模型（AD-SDP）进行了对比分析来验证模型的有效性，分析结果表明考虑预报信息不确定性的AD-BSDP模型比其他模型具有更高的效率和稳定性。     

降雨径流模型及其应用

针对目前国内对降雨径流模型研究中存在的问题,介绍了降雨径流模型的原理与特点,以沙子岭流域为例对降雨径流模型实际应用效果进行分析,并用卡尔曼滤波方法对降雨径流模型的预报结果进行了实时校正。研究表明,该模型预报效果较好,经卡尔曼滤波后预报效果明显改善。     

Evaluation of AMC-Dependent SCS-CN-Based Models Using Watershed Characteristics

This paper presents a quantitative evaluation of the existing Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) model, its variants, and the modified Mishra and Singh (MS) models for their suitability to particular land use, soil type and combination thereof using a large set of rainfall-runoff data from small to large watersheds of the U.S.A. The analysis reveals that the existing SCS-CN model is more suitable for high runoff producing agricultural watersheds than to watersheds showing pasture/range land use and sandy soils. On the other hand, the two different versions of the Mishra-Singh model are more suitable for both high and low runoff producing watersheds, but with mixed land use.