Methodology for estimating probability of dynamical system’s failure for concrete gravity dam简

Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower construction.Reliability analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases：failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure probability.Both of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters（earthquake variability and material randomness）.Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.     

可靠度理论在降雨入渗边坡工程中的应用——以元磨高速K253+(400~560)边坡为例

边坡工程是岩土领域研究的热点和难点,边坡工程的状态涉及众多参数,具有不确定性,可靠度理论能利用数学方法将边坡工程中随机不确定的参数与工程的安全性有机联系。以元磨高速公路K253+(400~560)段为例,通过Bishop法,运用极限平衡理论建立极限状态模型,进而推导极限状态方程;并利用Geo-studio对不同时段中边坡的降雨入渗情况进行分析,选取最不利状态为风险评价对象进行可靠度分析,验证JC法在边坡工程风险评价方法的可行性;同时对影响可靠度指标的变量进行敏感性分析,建议在此类地层相似的边坡加固方面,应该以主要提高土层整体的内摩擦角为主,在此基础上采取提高边坡岩土的黏聚力的治理措施更为有效。     

煤层底板岩体参数概率分布及Bayes优化

正确确定煤系岩体力学参数的概率分布是承压水上采煤底板稳定可靠性分析的关键。以淮北矿区部分煤矿下组煤底板砂岩强度参数为例,以K-S检验法对数据进行概率分布拟合,获取参数分布类型及统计量。以此大样本概型为先验函数,具体工作面底板岩体小样本参数的概型为似然函数,基于Bayes方法对其优化,得到验后分布的概型参数。计算结果表明,下组煤底板砂岩强度参数全部接受正态分布和对数正态分布,优化后的方差有所下降,可以提高底板采动稳定可靠性分析结果,从而达到优化目的。     

A study on corrosion resistance characteristics of PVD Cr-N coated steels by electrochemical method

The corrosion behavior of Cr-N coated steels with different phases (-Cr, CrN and Cr₂N) deposited by cathodic arc deposition on AISI H13 steel was investigated in a 3.5% NaCl solution at ambient temperature. Potentiodynamic polarization tests, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were the techniques applied to characterize the corrosion behavior. It was found that the CrN coating had a lower current density from potentiodynamic polarization tests than others. The porosity, corresponding to the ratio of the polarization resistance of the uncoated and the coated substrate, was higher in the Cr₂N coating than in the other Cr-N coated steels. EIS measurements showed, for most of the Cr-N coated steels, that the Bode plot presented two time constants. Also, the Cr₂N coating represented the characteristic of Warburg behavior after 72 h of immersion. The coating morphologies were examined in planar view and cross-section by SEM analysis and the results were compared with those of the electrochemical measurement. The CrN coating had a dense, columnar grain-sized microstructure with minor intergranular porosity. From the above results, it is concluded that the CrN coating provided a better corrosion protection than the other Cr-N coated steels.     

液压机用液压缸的计算机辅助设计

针对液压机用液压缸，在AutoCAD R14平台上开发了一套以专家系统、结构优化、参数化绘图技术为支撑的计算机辅助设计软件YYGCAD2．0。其专家系统YYGES的知识和数据来源于液压机领域专家的经验，基于规则推理，具有庞大的数据库和良好的人机接口。参数化绘图模块是在Visual C 6．0环境下用Object ARX语言开发的应用程序，运行速度快，利用MFC(微软基础类库)开发的用户界面，具有Windows风格。操作简单，易于推广。用户在输入液压缸的主要技术参数后，可以借助专家系统直接设计出液压缸的成套施工图纸，也可以通过优化设计得到结构最优并符合技术要求的设计图纸。该软件可以在Windows95／98／NT系统的微机上运行，具有较高的设计效率和设计水平。     

基于MasterCAM的复杂曲线及曲面的绘制

基于MasterCAM的绘图环境下，提出一种应用MasterCAM的Function plot（Fplot）绘图功能。绘制方程式及参数式曲线及曲面，用于高精度几何图形的绘制。     

How purchase intention consummates purchase behaviour: the stochastic nature of product valuation in electronic commerce

This study challenges the conventional assumption that online customers with high purchase intention routinely move to the purchase stage. To this end, the process of how online customers form purchase intention and behaviour is examined. On the basis of product value distribution (PVD), we propose that the hypothetically expected product value (i.e. PVD average) determines purchase intention, whereas the actual probability of attaining the expected product value (i.e. PVD variance) moderates purchase behaviour. This proposal indicates that the expected product value has significance only when repeated purchase is assumed given that most consumers do not repeatedly purchase the same product in reality. Thus, the actual probability of attaining the expected product value more critically affects customer behaviour than does its expected value. The effectiveness of the research model is verified by conducting a survey on 300 online mall shoppers in Korea. The results confirm model effectiveness.     

基于概率分布距离的多响应模型确认度量

针对模型确认中的确认度量问题,构造实验观测数据经验概率分布的置信包络。通过计算其与模型响应概率分布之间距离的上/下确界,给出基于概率分布距离确认度量的置信区间。通过构造与实验观测数据有关的协方差矩阵,给出基于概率分布距离的多响应模型确认度量及其置信区间的求解方式。该度量利用了模型输出与实验观测的完整概率分布信息,并且考虑了各模型响应间的相关性。算例仿真结果表明其确认错误率低于现有的其他两种确认度量。     

多比特概率幅编码的量子衍生粒子群优化算法

为了提高粒子群算法的优化能力, 提出一种新的量子衍生粒子群优化算法. 该方法采用多比特量子系统的基态概率幅对粒子编码, 基于自身最优粒子和全局最优粒子确定旋转角度, 采用基于张量积构造的多比特量子旋转门实施粒子的更新. 在每步迭代中, 只需更新粒子的一个量子比特相位, 即可更新该粒子上的所有概率幅. 标准函数极值优化的实验结果表明, 所提出算法的单步迭代时间较长, 但优化能力较同类算法有大幅度提高.

     

一种适用连续不确定XML数据的索引

针对连续不确定XML数据概率阈值范围查询,提出一种新的CUXI索引树。该索引树的构建方法是借鉴U树对空间数据自顶向下递归构建索引树的思想,将连续不确定XML文档中具有相同父亲的叶子节点构建二维数据矩形,在聚类的基础上来构建相应的CUXI索引树,其中叶子节点存储连续不确定数据辅助信息。为了提高查询效率,对连续不确定数据制定了过滤策略,通过遍历索引树过滤掉不满足查询范围的子树。理论和实验结果表明,此索引技术可提高查询处理的性能。