Probabilistic heuristic estimates

Though they constitute the major knowledge source in problem-solving systems, no unified theory of heuristics has emerged. Pearl [15] defines heuristics as criteria, methods, or principles for deciding which among several alternative courses of action promises to be the most effective in order to achieve some goal. The absence of a more precise definition has impeded our efforts to understand, utilize, and discover heuristics. Another consequence is that problem-solving techniques which rely on heuristic knowledge cannot be relied upon to act rationally — in the sense of the normative theory of rationality.To provide a sound basis for BPS, the Bayesian Problem-Solver, we have developed a simple formal theory of heuristics, which is general enough to subsume traditional heuristic functions as well as other forms of problem-solving knowledge, and to straddle disparate problem domains. Probabilistic heuristic estimates represent a probabilistic association of sensations with prior experience — specifically, a mapping from observations directly to subjective probabilities which enables the use of theoretically principled mechanisms for coherent inference and decision making during problem-solving. This paper discusses some of the implications of this theory, and describes its successful application in BPS.This research was made possible by support from Heuristicrats, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Rand Corporation.     

人群头发元素分布及某些特征研究

本文介绍用堆中子活化分析法测定人群头发中I、Br、Mg、Mn、Cu、Na、V、Cl、Al、Ca、S等11种元素。研究人发中元素分布特征、相关性特征、性别年令分布特征。方法学中还从法庭科学应用角度介绍同一性识别中差异率和重合几率的双判据方法。     

区域土壤腐蚀试验数据分布特征研究——Ⅰ 概率分布特征表述

以塔里木和大港油田区域土壤腐蚀试验数据为例，论 证了区域腐蚀试验数据整体概率分布符合正态随机函数、其极大值数据符合Gumbel极值函数 .根据分布参数可以计算区内不同腐蚀性土壤比例、可能存在最大土壤腐蚀性和出现的概率 等工程信息.     

固溶处理对电解制备的A356合金硅颗粒的影响

以电解低钛铝基合金为原料制备了A356合金,研究了在535℃下固溶处理时间对合金共晶硅相细化、球化和分布的影响.测量了硅颗粒的长径和短径,计算了颗粒的直径和长短径比值等参数,分析了上述参数随固溶时间的变化及其概率密度分布.实验结果表明:由该电解合金制备的A356合金经2～4 h的固溶处理,共晶硅就可得到较好的细化和球化效果,具有较高的分布集中度;A356合金的固溶处理时间可有效缩短.     

弯道岸坡上粗细泥沙统一起动流速公式

该文基于概率论与泥沙起动基本理论,考虑了起动概率、相对暴露度与细颗粒泥沙间黏结力和附加下压力对泥沙起动的影响,采用滑动起动模型,从理论上推导出了适用于弯道岸坡上粗、细泥沙颗粒起动的统一流速公式,完善了已有研究成果对泥沙起动概率考虑的不足。公式综合了弯道岸坡、顺直岸坡、正负坡及平坡等条件下粗细泥沙颗粒起动流速计算,可简化为各简单条件下泥沙起动流速公式。通过各简单条件下泥沙起动流速实测资料验证,该文公式与实测数据符合良好。     

基于全概率公式直接推求管运洪水

本文为保证防洪安全的前提下充分发挥水库的综合效益,提出了基于全概率公式推求管运洪水的方法,并详细阐述了其基本原理;提出了在资料较短或前、后汛期洪水特性大致相同的情况下运用全概率公式推求管运洪水的实际方法;以马边站的洪水资料进行实例研究,其结果表明基于全概率公式推算出来的管运洪水既能使水库工程达到防洪标准,又能充分发挥水库的综合效益。     

Epileptic seizure classification in EEG signals using second-order difference plot of intrinsic mode functions

Epilepsy is a neurological disorder which is characterized by transient and unexpected electrical disturbance of the brain. The electroencephalogram (EEG) is a commonly used signal for detection of epileptic seizures. This paper presents a new method for classification of ictal and seizure-free EEG signals. The proposed method is based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and the second-order difference plot (SODP). The EMD method decomposes an EEG signal into a set of symmetric and band-limited signals termed as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). The SODP of IMFs provides elliptical structure. The 95% confidence ellipse area measured from the SODP of IMFs has been used as a feature in order to discriminate seizure-free EEG signals from the epileptic seizure EEG signals. The feature space obtained from the ellipse area parameters of two IMFs has been used for classification of ictal and seizure-free EEG signals using the artificial neural network (ANN) classifier. It has been shown that the feature space formed using ellipse area parameters of first and second IMFs has given good classification performance. Experimental results on EEG database available by the University of Bonn, Germany, are included to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

图的点可区别边染色算法研究

针对一般图设计了一种新型的点可区别边染色算法。该算法把概率思想和图染色相结合, 根据点可区别边染色的约束规则确立目标函数, 利用交换规则逐步寻优, 当目标函数的值满足要求时染色成功。给出详细算法步骤并进行了测试和分析, 实验结果表明该算法可以求出满足猜想的点可区别边色数。     

印刷哈萨克斯拉夫粘连字符的切分方法

哈萨克斯拉夫图像文本经过行切分和列切分后,存在水平方向接触和垂直方向重叠的粘连字符。为提高字符识别率,依据字符连通域的最小外接矩形切分开垂直方向重叠的粘连字符图像块;利用判决条件:字符宽度概率密度分布图、字符图像块垂直投影的波峰数目和字符图像块垂直投影波峰的对称性,分离初始粘连字符图像块中正确的单个字符图像块和实际接触的粘连字符图像块;在允许的字符宽度范围内,寻找粘连字符图像垂直投影图的极小值点,以切分实际接触的粘连字符。实验结果表明,该方法泛化能力较好且识别率有明显提高。     

Presumed joint probability density function model for turbulent combustion

A presumed joint probability density function (pdf) model of turbulent combustion is proposed in this paper. The turbulent fluctuations of reactant concentrations and temperature are described using a presumed joint pdf of three-dimensional Gaussian distribution based on first and second-order moments of reactant concentration and temperature. Mean reaction rates in both premixed and diffusion combustion are obtained by mean of integration under the presumed joint pdf. This model is applied to predict turbulent premixed combustion of sudden-expansion flow and turbulent jet diffusion methane/air flame. For turbulent premixed combustion, the predicted results of temperature distribution and maximum temperature using the proposed model agree better with the experiment than that using the conventional eddy-breakup (EBU)-Arrhenius model. For the turbulent jet diffusion methane/air flame, the predicted results of velocity, temperature and species concentrations using the proposed model, the Arrhenius, EBU-Arrhenius, and laminar flamelet models are compared with experiment data. Results obtained with the presumed pdf model and that obtained by the laminar flamelet model both agree well with experiments, while results using the other models have a significant difference. The presumed joint pdf model is used to predict the NO formation process, which also agrees well with the experiment data. A unified turbulent combustion model, in which both effects of turbulent diffusion and chemical dynamics are considered, is established for both premixed and diffusion combustion, especially for the process of NO formation.