Information systems and uncertainty: a conspiracy of misplaced confidence

Abstract. Information technology is becoming an increasingly important factor in contemporary management. Information systems are being set up in business explicitly to accommodate the new opportunities of this technology, and these are having a lasting effect on managerial practice. The full implications of this technology-driven development have not been appreciated by organizations, which in absorbing technological systems, are tolerating a great drain on their resources.
The efficacy of computers is predicated on the acceptance of some very specific perspectives. A growing discontent and disappointment with their limited achievements is our reason for advocating a different point of view. We will discuss how a shift in perspective, particularly in respect to the perception of uncertainty, will affect thinking and practice in the field of management support systems. We will render our view of the application of computerized decision support systems (DSS), and especially, we will focus on the beliefs and assumptions that have shaped this technology thus far. To this end we will discuss the concept of uncertainty, by juxtaposing current thinking and practice with our understanding of the context of its application. Finally, we will place our understanding of uncertainty in a managerial context and explain the implications this would have for strategists.     

Pruning Redundant Alarm Correlation Patterns

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化工软测量技术研究进展

详细说明了软测量技术的含义以及软测量系统的组成。在此基础上，介绍了软测量技术中基于机理分析建模、应用状态观测器建模、应用统计分析建模、神经元网络、模糊技术、以及支持向量机的智能建模等软测量建模理论方法和最新研究成果，之后介绍了小波分析、推断控制算法在软测量数据处理中的应用，最后介绍了基于虚拟仪器开发平台的软测量系统实现技术。     

Immobilization and activation of vanadium(III) and titanium(III) single‐site catalysts for ethylene polymerization using MgCl2‐based supports

Significant increases in the activity of vanadium(III) amidinate catalysts for ethylene polymerization have been obtained by immobilization on a MgCl₂‐based support prepared by reaction of AlEt₃ with a MgCl₂/ethanol adduct. Catalyst immobilization and activation on this type of support prevents the rapid decay in activity observed under homogeneous polymerization conditions with unsupported catalysts. Stable polymerization activity is also observed with analogous titanium(III) complexes. Polyethylene with narrow molecular weight distribution and spherical particle morphology is obtained without reactor fouling. Copyright © 2005 Society of Chemical Industry     

Semiparametric Estimation in Time‐Series Regression with Long‐Range Dependence

Abstract. We consider semiparametric estimation in time‐series regression in the presence of long‐range dependence in both the errors and the stochastic regressors. A central limit theorem is established for a class of semiparametric frequency domain‐weighted least squares estimates, which includes both narrow‐band ordinary least squares and narrow‐band generalized least squares as special cases. The estimates are semiparametric in the sense that focus is on the neighbourhood of the origin, and only periodogram ordinates in a degenerating band around the origin are used. This setting differs from earlier studies on time‐series regression with long‐range dependence, where a fully parametric approach has been employed. The generalized least squares estimate is infeasible when the degree of long‐range dependence is unknown and must be estimated in an initial step. In that case, we show that a feasible estimate which has the same asymptotic properties as the infeasible estimate, exists. By Monte Carlo simulation, we evaluate the finite‐sample performance of the generalized least squares estimate and the feasible estimate.     

The new structure of fibre glass reinforced plastics bolt

The develop actuality and direction of FRP (fibre glass reinforced plastics) bolt in the world are analyzed. The new type structure of FRP bolt was designed. Trial data indicate that, all kinds of capability target of this FRP bolt all achieve and exceed the country stand-ard, substitute present metal bolt, wood bolt and bamboo bolt and other side bolt, it can gain magnitude technology and economy benefit. FRP bolt mechanization product line produce ef-ficiency is high, its throughput a day are 750 base, this can meet demand of hit-small mining company.     

Simultaneous Spectrophotometric Determination of Three Components Including Deoxyschizandrin by Partial Least Squares Regression

1IntroductionWuweizi is a traditional Chinese herb,usually usedto cure cough,asthma,neurasthenic,hepatitisetc.Theactive ingredients in wuweizi are5%-22%lignan,themain components of which include deoxyschizandrin,schizandrin andγ-Schizandrin.Forthe purpos…     

大孔径石蜡加氢精制催化剂的制备

采用氨吸附-程序升温脱附(NH3-TPD)、低温N2吸附(BET)、压汞法以及加氢精制活性评价等技术,探索SiO2-Al2O3载体在制备过程中孔结构和表面性质的变化。实验结果表明,采用特殊扩孔剂制备载体,当焙烧温度为700℃时,平均孔径可达到17.3nm,其中孔径大于20nm的孔占总孔体积的13.2%;同时载体表面上的中、强酸中心也全部丧失,均为弱酸中心。采用该载体制备的MoNiP/SiO2-Al2O3石蜡加氢精制催化剂,在MoO3用量减少了约1/4的情况下,比目前工业上使用的催化剂具有更高的脱金属能力和加氢精制活性。     

均匀设计法分析制备过程对钴钼硫化物催化剂机械强度的影响

建立了CoMoP/Al2O3加氢精制催化剂机械强度及其可靠性在制备过程中的数学模型,采用均匀设计考察了浸渍、干燥、煅烧、硫化4个制备过程中,浸渍时间、干燥温度、干燥时间、煅烧温度、煅烧时间、硫化温度和硫化升温速率7个实验因子对催化剂强度均值、Weibull模量的影响,同时考察了这些因素对颗粒密度的影响。方差分析表明所有模型都是充足的。实验结果表明,硫化过程是影响催化剂强度均值的主要过程。在实验范围内提高硫化温度、降低硫化时的升温速率有利于提高催化剂的强度。影响催化剂Weibull模量的因素主要为各个制备过程的交互效应。要提高催化剂强度的可靠性就必须全面考虑催化剂制备的各个过程,特别是各个制备过程的交互效应。     

松软厚煤层轻放工作面切眼锚杆支护实践

针对朱仙庄矿 84 15工作面切眼特殊的地质条件 ,介绍了高强锚杆 (索 )支护技术成功应用于特厚极软煤层的经验 ,并对巷道支护成本进行了分析