基于叠加的马尔科夫链的永吉县降水量分析

利用永吉县1957-2011年降水资料,采用线性回归法及叠加的马尔科夫链方法对永吉县的降水量进行分析,结果表明,永吉县降水量在54年中20世纪70-80年代为下降趋势,之后呈先上升后下降的趋势。以叠加的马尔科夫链可以很好的模拟永吉县降水量,但在大旱大涝年份误差较大,在计算中应综合降水序列整体进行计算以消除误差。     

IMPLEMENTING ENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS IN COMPLEX WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS – CASE STUDY: THE DUERO RIVER BASIN,SPAIN

European river basin authorities are responsible for the implementation of the new river basin management plans in accordance with the European Water Framework Directive. This paper presents a new methodology framework and approach to define and evaluate environmental flow regimes in the realistic complexities that exist with multiple water resource needs at a basin scale. This approach links river basin simulation models and habitat time series analysis to generate ranges of environmental flows (e‐flows), which are evaluated by using habitat, hydropower production and reliability of water supply criteria to produce best possible alternatives. With the use of these tools, the effects of the proposed e‐flows have been assessed to help in the consultation process. The possible effects analysed are impacts on water supply reliability, hydropower production and aquatic habitat. After public agreements, a heuristic optimization process was applied to maximize e‐flows and habitat indicators, while maintaining a legal level of reliability for water resource demands. The final optimal e‐flows were considered for the river basin management plans of the Duero river basin. This paper demonstrates the importance of considering quantitative hydrologic and ecological aspects of e‐flows at the basin scale in addressing complex water resource systems. This approach merges standard methods such as physical habitat simulations and time series analyses for evaluating alternatives, with recent methods to simulate and optimize water management alternatives in river networks. It can be integrated with or used to complement other frameworks for e‐flow assessments such as the In‐stream Flow Incremental Methodology and Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A SWAT evaluation of the effect of climate change on the hydrology of the Volta River basin

The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to evaluate the impacts of a climate scenario based on IPCC A1B emissions on flows in the Volta River basin in West Africa for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, using 1983–2012 as the reference period. Overall, the simulation indicates increased variability and a decrease of up to 40% in river flow as a consequence of decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature. In particular, the analysis shows smaller absolute but greater relative changes in the hydrology of the northern (upper) part of the basin, particularly at the end of the century.     

Drivers of change in agricultural water productivity and its improvement at basin scale in developing economies

We approach the issue of water productivity in agriculture by identifying five sets of drivers of change. We find that irrigation efficiencies at the field level can result in real water savings under certain conditions, but that small farmers in most of South Asia and Africa have little incentive to adopt the appropriate measures. Although water productivity improvement and water savings at the regional level are possible through a shift to economically efficient crops, such changes may be constrained by concerns with respect to domestic and regional food security, rural employment, and farming system resilience.     

River basin water resources management in China: a legal and institutional assessment

China's rivers face major challenges arising from social and economic development, particularly associated with pollution and over-abstraction. Although these issues vary significantly across the country, China has adopted a national, unified approach to manage water resources in a river basin context. This paper assesses the legal and institutional arrangements for river basin management in terms of decentralization and centralization. It considers the appropriate roles for the different levels of government, including providing for participation and integration across these levels. It proposes strengthening institutional development and capacity building in the future.     

基于水管理对象的数字流域顶层设计技术方法研究

水利信息化是实现水利现代化的基础和重要标志。以水管理对象为基础,利用现代信息技术构造数字流域,集中管理流域内的水事问题,是实现流域现代化管理的有效途径。从数字流域体系架构、水管理对象构造及全息化描述、基础平台构建、业务系统的构件化开发、数字功能流域等方面详细介绍了基于水管理对象的数字流域构造技术方法。     

Maximum speedup ratio curve (MSC) in parallel computing of the binary-tree-based drainage network

Restricted computational capacity has become a key factor in limiting the development of a majority of distributed basin models. Parallel computing is one of the most effective methods for solving this problem. Although many parallel-computing methods have been employed in basin models, few studies have carried out theoretical research on parallel characteristics of river basins. In this paper, the drainage network of river basins is treated as a binary-tree structure. Using the binary-tree theory, we find that there exists a maximum speedup curve (MSC) for an arbitrary drainage network. The x-coordinate of the MSC represents the number of processors used during the computing, while the y-coordinate corresponds to the maximum speedup ratio (MSR) that can be obtained. Under several essential assumptions, the theoretical function of MSC is established. The function indicates that the MSC consists of an ascending section and a horizontal section. A parallel algorithm capable of acquiring the MSC is proposed as well. Using this algorithm, the MSC is tested at two different-resolution drainage networks of the Lhasa River Basin. A 2-year rainfall-runoff process is simulated. The results prove the existence of MSC. However, primarily influenced by the load imbalance of subbasins, the simulation values of MSR are usually smaller than the theoretical ones.     

鄂尔多斯盆地东南部长7油层组沉积相研究

为了明确鄂尔多斯盆地东南部长7油层组沉积体系类型和沉积相展布特征,总结其沉积演化规律,以沉积学的基本原理和方法为指导,综合运用地球化学、盆地分析等理论和方法,通过野外露头、钻井、测井等资料的综合分析,认为鄂尔多斯盆地东南部长7油层组主要发育三角洲和湖泊沉积体系,可进一步划分为3类亚相,其中以三角洲前缘和深湖2种亚相为主．     

龙门山盆-山耦合带遥感地质解译

随着晚三叠世龙门山造山带的崛起,四川前陆盆地开始形成。强烈的喜马拉雅运动使龙门山进一步崛起,造就了龙门山与四川前陆盆地的盆-山耦合景观。结合遥感解译与实地调查,发现江油-灌县断裂带控制着前陆盆地的边缘,是一个构造形迹较为复杂的盆-山耦合断裂,由二王庙断裂和香水断裂组成,其主体断裂为二王庙断裂。而在四川前陆盆地西缘的香水断裂是半隐伏乃至全隐伏的盆地基底断裂构造,断裂在江油南西裸露地表且控制盆地边界,但在江油北东到广元则处于隐伏状态。香水断裂对盆地边缘早-中侏罗世盆地沉积相和晚侏罗世-早白垩世所谓＂城墙岩系＂巨厚磨拉石建造的形成均具有较强的控制性。