一种基于风险的需求优先级排序方法*

为支持风险的量化分析以提高需求优先级排序的有效性,提出了一种基于风险的方法。方法从需求和任务两个层面实现对需求选取问题的建模,以风险为关键因素计算得出需求优先级。模拟实验的结果表明,本方法有助于提高项目最终取得的价值,同时优先级排序的结果符合费效比原则,即项目实现了在早期尽快获取价值的目标。     

项目投资风险管理体系模型研究

首先分析了项目投资管理、风险管理和信息管理的作用、内容和程序,得出了三者的内在关系;其次提出包括风险管理战略、风险管理程序、风险管理组织、风险管理方法、风险管理制度和风险管理文化的项目投资风险管理体系,分析了其构成要素的功能及设置方案;最后依据构成要素间的逻辑关系构建了项目投资全面风险管理模型.     

供电企业信息作业风险评估研究

在深入研究事故致因理论、事故风险管理和供电企业生产作业风险管理的基础上,提出了供电企业信息作业风险评估的模型和方法。有助于供电企业建立一套基于风险管理的信息作业指导书,为信息运维人员提供安全作业操作规范,减少安全事故的发生。     

梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险分析与防控研究综述

伴随超标准巨震、极端暴雨洪水、巨型滑坡等灾害频繁发生,极端载荷作用下梯级水电枢纽群的灾害风险分析与防控等问题成为当前水利工程领域的研究热点。为分析梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险研究现状,绘制了国内外水库大坝溃坝事件的时间序列图,分析了梯级水电枢纽群的风险特征,总结评述了梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险分析和巨灾防控研究进展,主要结论如下：1)梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险是我国水利水电工程风险防控面临的主要问题;2)梯级水电枢纽群风险分析方面主要聚焦于梯级水库连溃概率的分析和计算,对于溃决可能产生的巨灾损失的量化研究不足,缺乏对巨灾因子及其相关影响作用下巨灾风险的评估;3)缺乏对梯级枢纽群灾害链的阻断技术研究和应急避险方案设计研究。为此提出了梯级水电枢纽群可能最大灾难(Probable Maximum Disaster, PMD)的科学内涵,考虑可能遭遇的多种致灾因子和承灾体特征,分析相互因果关系和极端荷载组合情况,初步建立了PMD评估的理论模型,为绘制梯级水电枢纽群在巨灾情景下的灾难空间外包线和估算PMD损失上限值提供科学依据,为梯级水电枢纽群巨灾风险分析和防控提供理论基础和技术支持。     

太湖及太浦河两岸地区洪涝风险分析及对策探讨

由于特殊的自然地理条件,加之人类活动频繁,太湖及太浦河两岸地区的防洪、水资源和水环境等问题交织在一起,导致洪涝风险成因复杂,洪水风险长期存在。分析了该地区的洪涝风险特性,包括太湖水位易涨难消、太浦河两岸地区洪涝风险互相转化、上下游洪水风险转移,以及下垫面、引调水的变化而导致的洪水风险分布随之调整等;根据分析结果,对该地区的洪涝风险类型进行了识别。在此基础上,提出了科学精细调度水利工程、提升平原河网洪水风险分析技术、建立洪水风险实时分析系统以及探索"风险共担"的洪水管理模式等方面的建议。     

城市轨道交通地下工程风险分析

随着城市轨道交通地下工程建设规模的逐渐扩大,工程风险问题已经越来越突出,而风险管理主要是事前预防,规避企业风险的决策管理方式。介绍了轨道交通地下工程风险管理的国内外研究现状、风险发生机理以及当前风险管理存在的主要问题;对风险控制方法进行了适用性分类;总结出轨道交通地下工程风险管理应循序渐进,不断创新,增强城市轨道交通安全风险管理体系。     

Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers in Surface Sediment from Songhua River Basin, Northeast of China

Sixty sediment samples were collected from the main Songhua River in three years. Twelve polybrominated diphenyl ether ( PBDE) congeners ( BDE17, 28, 47, 66, 99, 100, 153, 154, 138, 183, and BDE?209) w...     

废液晶显示器铟的资源化回收研究进展

液晶显示器(liquid crystal display,LCD)的回收处理是资源与环境领域的重要问题。介绍了LCD的组成成分并阐述了其对环境的潜在风险,综述了近年来国内外对废LCD中铟的资源化回收处理技术的研究现状,指出了目前该研究领域中存在的问题及后续的研究方向。     

Cadmium in agricultural soils,vegetables and rice and potential health risk in vicinity of Dabaoshan Mine in Shaoguan,China

Soil cadmium （Cd） contamination resulted from mining and smelting is a major environmental concern,and health risk associated with Cd exposure to multi-media through muti-pathway is increasing.Cd concentrations in soils,vegetables and paddy rice were investigated,and potential non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks exposure to Cd were estimated at six villages around the Dabaoshan Mine,South China.A total of 87 soil samples were found to exceed the China＇s maximum permission level （MPL） for Cd,while the highest value of 4.42 mg/kg was found near irrigation ditch associated with Hengshi River in Xinyi （XY） Village.Cd contents in vegetables and rice exceeded the maximum permissible concentration by more than five times in every village.Cadmium accumulation in plants is in the order of celery 〉 lactuca sativa L 〉 Chinese cabbage 〉 Romaine lettuce 〉 asparagus lettuce 〉 mustard 〉 cabbage mustard 〉 cabbage.The mean hazard quotient （HQ） of all villages is in the range of [5.29,25.75],and the mean values of cancer risk for investigated areas are more than 10 times greater than the USEPA （2009） threshold limit value of 10-4.Moreover,human non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks are mainly attributable to paddy rice intake,followed by vegetables intake,soil ingestion,inhalation,and dermal contact.The results indicate that Cd has a huge potential risk on human health for the local residents.     

Risk reduction in Sechahun iron ore deposit by geological boundary modification using multiple indicator Kriging

Uncertainty on the geological contacts and the block volumes of the models along boundaries is often a major part of the global uncertainty of reserve estimation.This work introduces a geostatistical technique that has been developed and tested in an iron ore deposit at Bafq mining district,in central Iran,and that,based on a probability criterion,helps to objectively model the geometry of this iron ore deposit.The main problem in reserve estimation of this ore body is its geometrical modeling and uncertainty in geological boundaries.This work deals with the geostatistical method of multiple indicator kriging,which is used to determine the real boundaries of ore body in different categories.This approach has potential to improve project performance and decrease operational risk.For this purpose,the ore body is separated into two categories including rich iron zone （w（Fe）〉45%） and poor iron zone （20%〈w（Fe）〈45%）.It significantly benefits to decrease the risk of reserve evaluation in the deposit.This case study also highlights the value of multiple indicator kriging as a tool for estimates the position of grade boundaries within the deposit.Comparison of the resultant probability maps with the real ore/waste contacts on the extracted levels shows that the first indicator model could separate the whole ore body （poor plus rich） from the waste zone by probability of more than 0.35,which concludes the total reserve of 53 million tons.The second indicator model applied to separate the rich and poor domains and the results show that the blocks with the estimated probability of equal to or more than 0.4 lay within the rich ore zone consisting of 15.8 million tons reserve.