马尔可夫链在企业经济预测上的应用

为了科学的预测企业所关心的各项经济指标 ,以便为企业的未来做出正确的决策方案 ,需用适当的数学模型和方法对企业的经济活动进行定量的研究 .基于经济活动的复杂、多变性及带有许多随机性因素的特点 ,针对这两种常见的经济问题 ,分别建立了相应的马尔可夫链模型 .应用马尔可夫链的相关理论、巧妙的构造转移概率矩阵 ,只通过简单的矩阵运算 ,便迅速解决问题 .实例表明 ,马尔可夫链模型及方法在企业经济活动分析中是可行和适用的 ,可广泛用于解决企业中常见的预测及决策问题 .     

过程链管理--用于制定和管理转型组织的工具

在当今企业环境日益复杂而活跃的背景条件下，企业需要不断进行重组和迅速转型。这要求企业要具备更强的适应性和更高的灵活性。为了确保实现这些动态的要求，企业必须制定和实施新型的组织形式。本文介绍过程链管理——一种面向过程进行转型的工具。本文首先简要说明了过程链管理应用的工具、过程链管理的任务和构造。它的出发点是由行动、结构、资源、和指挥所组成的过程链管理。在第二步骤中，重点阐述了客户取向这个过程链管理中最重要的取向量。总体来说，整个价值创造链及与此相关的内部交换关系都具有重要意义。在对过程链管理的方法进行了说明以后，提出了一个应用实例，该实例不仅描述了垂直重构，也对水平重构进行了描述。     

Markov analysis of qualitative dynamics1

Common sense sometimes predicts events to be likely or unlikely rather than merely possible. We extend methods of qualitative reasoning to predict the relative likelihoods of possible qualitative behaviors by viewing the dynamics of a system as a Markov chain over its transition graph. This involves adding qualitative or quantitative estimates of transition probabilities to each of the transitions and applying the standard theory of Markov chains to distinguish persistent states from transient states and to calculate recurrence times, settling times, and probabilities for ending up in each state. Much of the analysis depends solely on qualitative estimates of transition probabilities, which follow directly from theoretical considerations and which lead to qualitative predictions about entire classes of systems. Quantitative estimates for specific systems are derived empirically and lead to qualitative and quantitative conclusions, most of which are insensitive to small perturbations in the estimated transition probabilities. The algorithms are straightforward and efficient.     

纳米SiO_2与有机物分子的亲和性和分散性

介绍纳米SiO2的合成和粒子表面的粗糙形貌以及纳米粒子链具有类似高分子链的弹性力学属性,研究纳米SiO2的亲合性,探讨亲合性对纳米SiO2的分散、改性、应用的影响。研究表明,在极性外加剂(如乙二胺、乙二醇、PEG、PDMS、PTHF、PMMA、PBMA等)存在的情况下,纳米SiO2的弹性粒子链和硅烷醇对SiO2的分散和改性具有显著的影响。带有大烷基侧链的高分子链与SiO2表面的亲合能较低,而带有官能团的高分子链与SiO2表面具有较高的亲合性。     

EM procedures using mean field-like approximations for Markov model-based image segmentation

Image segmentation using Markov random fields involves parameter estimation in hidden Markov models for which the EM algorithm is widely used. In practice, difficulties arise due to the dependence structure in the models and approximations are required. Using ideas from the mean field approximation principle, we propose a class of EM-like algorithms in which the computation reduces to dealing with systems of independent variables. Within this class, the simulated field algorithm is a new stochastic algorithm which appears to be the most promising for its good performance and speed, on synthetic and real image experiments.     

多级网络多处理机系统的性能评估

本文建立了多级网络(δ-网)多处理机系统的马尔柯夫模型,为系统结构参数和任务粒度的选择提供了依据。文中分析了处理机数目、网络结构参数和任务粒度对系统性能的影响,并对模型计算结果和仿真结果作了比较。     

对等张力链条机构设计的再思考

为解决震源在振动器提升后链条与销轴的断裂问题,应采用等张力原理对链条提升机构进行改进设计。经野外实践证明,这种机构基本上能够满足野外工作的要求。本文对目前所采用的机构形式可能存在的改进设计进行了分析。     

APPLICATION OF THE POLYMERASE CHAIN REACTION TO THE RAPID ANALYSIS OF BREWERY YEAST STRAINS

The rapid discrimination of closely-related Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains can pose a significant problem to breweries, in particular where closely related strains are being used simultaneously to manufacture different products. In this study, two PCR approaches have been examined to assess their usefulness for the discrimination of brewery ale and lager yeast strains. PCR using arbitrary primers (RAPD PCR) was found unsuitable for such an application since the DNA profiles generated from brewery strains were generally found to be identical, due presumably to the close genetic relatedness of these yeasts. In contrast, PCR using δ sequence primers could rapidly differentiate between many ale and lager strains and characteristic profiles for these were generated. This method could also be applied directly to yeasts isolated from brewery worts or from active dried yeast preparations. Results of such analyses were available within the working day.     

基于分形理论的供应链管理模型分析

为了克服日益复杂的供应链问题,在分形理论的基础上介绍了分形供应链的概念和特点,认为分形供应链所具有的自相似、自组织、自优化等特点可以很好地提高供应链的灵活性,增强适应环境的能力.在此基础上进一步研究了分形供应链的结构模型和运作模型,探讨了其现实意义.     

Safe and effective navigation of autonomous robots in hazardous environments

The development of autonomous mobile machines to perform useful tasks in real work environments is currently being impeded by concerns over effectiveness, commercial viability and, above all, safety. This paper introduces a case study of a robotic excavator to explore a series of issues around system development, navigation in unstructured environments, autonomous decision making and changing the behaviour of autonomous machines to suit the prevailing demands of users. The adoption of the Real-Time Control Systems (RCS) architecture (Albus, 1991) is proposed as a universal framework for the development of intelligent systems. In addition it is explained how the use of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP) (Kaelbling et al., 1998) can form the basis of decision making in the face of uncertainty and how the technique can be effectively incorporated into the RCS architecture. Particular emphasis is placed on ensuring that the resulting behaviour is both task effective and adequately safe, and it is recognised that these two objectives may be in opposition and that the desired relative balance between them may change. The concept of an autonomous system having “values” is introduced through the use of utility theory. Limited simulation results of experiments are reported which demonstrate that these techniques can create intelligent systems capable of modifying their behaviour to exhibit either ‘safety conscious’ or ‘task achieving’ personalities.