具有地形坡折带的坳陷湖盆层序地层模拟

层序地层学研究已在陆相湖盆中取得良好的应用效果，在陆相湖盆的地层对比、沉积体系空间分布预测中发挥重要作用。坳陷湖盆在基底受压变形过程中，常在盆缘形成地形坡折带，以坡折为界，基底的沉降速率和原始地形坡度等控制层序发育的重要因素在其两侧均存在显著的差异，这在很大程度上控制了层序的发育模式和沉积体系的空间配置关系。通过对基底沉降速率、湖平面变化速率、沉积物充填速率、沉积物充填准则、岩相确定原则等数学模 型的建立，模拟了具有地形坡折带的坳陷湖盆的层序发育和相演化过程。实际资料与模拟结果的对比分析表明，模拟具有很好的效果。     

西南丘陵山地区农村居民点土地整理模式——以重庆渝北区为例

通过对样本区域农村居民点布局及土地利用特点的研究 ,从丘陵山地区的自然环境条件和社会经济发展水平的实际出发 ,提出两种土地整理模式 :一是农林综合开发整理模式 ,即居民点闲置土地的复垦利用与抛荒地利用结合 ,与山地区退耕还林等生态建设工程结合 ,进行退宅还林 ;二是新村建设整理模式 ,即由政府对新村统一规划 ,供给道路等基础设施 ,引导农民集中建房的“政府引导型”农村居民点整理模式 ,并对重庆市渝北区新春村的新村建设的运作和效益进行了实证分析。     

Runoff reduction due to environmental changes in the Sanchuanhe river basin

Recently, runoff in many river basins in China has been decreasing. Therefore, the role that climate change and human activities are playing in this decrease is currently of interest. In this study, we evaluated an assessment method that was designed to quantitatively separate the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in river basins. Specifically, we calibrated the SIMHYD rainfall runoff model using naturally recorded hydro-meteorologic data pertaining to the Sanchuanhe River basin and then determined the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff by comparing the estimated natural runoff that occurred during the period in which humans disturbed the basin to the runoff that occurred during the period prior to disturbance by humans. The results of this study revealed that the S1MHYD rainfall runoff model performs well for estimating monthly discharge. In addition, we found that absolute runoff reductions have increased in response to human activities and climate change, with average reductions of 70.1% and 29.9% in total runoff being caused by human activities and climate change, respectively. Taken together, the results of this study indicate that human activities are the primary cause of runoff reduction in the Sanchuanhe River basin.     

上海黏性土剪切带形成的数值模拟分析

各种工程事故表明：现有的土力学计算模型均未考虑应变局部化问题,故不能解释这些工程事故的发生,因此应变局部化和剪切带形成的研究成为国际土力学界研究热点之一。数值模拟是研究剪切带形成的一个重要内容。在数值模拟中首先进行剪切带形成条件的研究,接着考虑土质不均匀性的影响,引入弱单元和强单元,进行弱单元与强单元影响力的研究。     

沉积过程的三维计算机模拟及其应用

利用模拟沉积、剥蚀和搬运过程的数学模型和基本算法,开发了模拟软件SSSP(simulating system of sedimentary processes)。该软件能够进行主要沉积环境的大规模剥蚀、搬运和沉积过程的复杂模拟,并可控制各种参数实时显示模拟结果,包括剖面图、沉积相图、等值线图、网格图和速度矢量图等。在已知沉积环境参数的情况下,利用SSSP再现盆地的沉积演化过程、沉积构型和沉积相分布,并给出了三角洲、河道和水下台阶沉积环境模拟实例。     

Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error

As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover.     

南昌地区建设用地空间扩展的广义转移概率模型建设与应用研究

对南昌地区城市发育约束因素的分析的基础上,基于非城市像元所处的城市化梯度、距离最近建成区斑块的距离、最近建成区斑块的规模、边缘像元的邻域水平等4个城市景观格局因子和道路及地形等两个社会经济和自然影响因子,构建了广义转移概率模型,并开展了相关的动态模拟研究。表明,与传统模拟方法相比,该模型具有比较理想的精度水平,模拟结果能够很好地反映南昌地区今后城市建设用地发展趋势,提出的模型手段改进设计获得了令人满意的效果,是对现行城市景观动态模拟研究工作的一个重要的方法论补充和完善。     

重庆地区夏季一次降水过程及增雨潜力的数值模拟分析

利用国家气象中心GRAPES人工增雨云系模式,选取2008年7月4日重庆地区一次降水过程进行数值模拟,分析了重庆地区降雨天气的水汽分布、云系宏微观分布、云中微物理转化和增雨潜力等特征。结果表明：本次降水大气过程中,重庆地区水汽含量极为丰富,水汽分布与地形分布呈明显的对应关系,低层水汽输送较大,整层水汽通量较高,有明显水汽辐合,云中液态水对地面降水影响很大。西南气流和地形共同作用为重庆地区液态水的形成提供了有利条件,在东北部山区迎风坡处大量水汽累积抬升,易形成丰富的液态水。重庆东北部地区水汽向云水转化较强,过冷液态水含量丰富,冰晶含量少,0℃层附近水汽垂直通量较大,降水效率较低,有较大的增雨潜力。     

夏季西北干旱气候形成的数值模拟——高原地形和环流场等的影响

为了进一步检验和修改本文部分作者先前初步提出的影响夏季西北干旱气候形成的因子及如何相互作用形成西北干旱气候的物理图像,本文继续用一全球大气环流谱模式,设计了5组试验,利用ECMWF 的格点分析值资料,进行了数值模拟。结果表明,青藏高原隆升和环流差异是形成西北干旱气候的重要因子,已提出的西北干旱气候形成的物理图像大体是正确的。     

夏季长三角城市群热岛效应及其对大气边界层结构影响的数值模拟

利用WRF/Noah/UCM模拟系统对长三角地区城市群进行了2003—2007年共5个夏季的高分辨率数值模拟,研究了夏季长三角城市群热岛效应及其对大气边界层影响。开展了2组平行的积分试验,控制试验为MODIS遥感资料给出的地表特征分布,敏感性试验将长三角地区的城市表面改为农田类型,其他与控制试验完全相同。两组试验的对比分析表明城市群热岛存在明显的日变化特征,热岛效应白天向上发展较高,夜间地表热岛强度明显增强。城市热岛导致午后城市上空产生强烈的局地上升气流,从而使得低层大气以补偿流的形式向城市辐合,然而在夜间上升运动很微弱。伴随这种热力状况的日变化,大气边界层高度也存在明显的日变化,白天增高,夜间降低。同时,白天城市边界层内风速明显减小,夜间地面风速减小加剧,但夜间边界层顶风速却有所增强。另外,城市化还会导致“城市干岛”现象,且其白天强度大于夜间。