Comparison of direct statistical and indirect statistical-deterministic frameworks in downscaling river low-flow indices

ABSTRACT

This work explores the ability of two methodologies in downscaling hydrological indices characterizing the low flow regime of three salmon rivers in Eastern Canada: Moisie, Romaine and Ouelle. The selected indices describe four aspects of the low flow regime of these rivers: amplitude, frequency, variability and timing. The first methodology (direct downscaling) ascertains a direct link between large-scale atmospheric variables (the predictors) and low flow indices (the predictands). The second (indirect downscaling) involves downscaling precipitation and air temperature (local climate variables) that are introduced into a hydrological model to simulate flows. Synthetic flow time series are subsequently used to calculate the low flow indices. The statistical models used for downscaling low flow hydrological indices and local climate variables are: Sparse Bayesian Learning and Multiple Linear Regression. The results showed that direct downscaling using Sparse Bayesian Learning surpassed the other approaches with respect to goodness of fit and generalization ability.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed     

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.     

Vertical heterogeneities of hydraulic aquitard parameters: preliminary results from laboratory and in situ monitoring

Abstract

A borehole is developed in a shallow multi-layered aquifer and used to derive the porosity, specific storage and hydraulic conductivity of the aquitard. Local values of hydrodynamical parameters are estimated from petrophysical analysis of core samples, and the empirical relationship between porosity and permeability. Vertical diffusivity is determined from the response of the aquitard to a loading cyclic signal using pressure records at different depths. Hydraulic conductivities deduced from the petrophysical analysis ranged from 10^?8 to 10^?10 m s^?1 and are comparable with those of facies of marine/lacustrine clay observed in samples. The permeability values calculated based on diffusivity are within the range 10^?9 to 10^?11 m s^?1 with a quasi-systematic bias of one order of magnitude. These values are average for a larger part of the aquitard and correspond to an integrated value. The methodology retained for the aquitard characterization is discussed with emphasis on the implications for the management of a complex aquifer system.

Citation Larroque, F., Cabaret, O., Atteia, O., Dupuy, A., and Franceschi, M., 2013. Vertical heterogeneities of hydraulic aquitard parameters: preliminary results from laboratory and in situ monitoring. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 912–929.     

Influence of Soil Air Permeability Change on Soil Vapour Extraction Systems Design

Soil air permeability plays a decisive role in the effectiveness of soil vapour extraction (SVE) for the removal of volatile organic contaminants (VOCs) from soil. The objective of this work is to study the change of the soil air permeability during continuous venting and removal of contaminant from a polluted soil. SVE pilot experiments were conducted to investigate the interaction of soil air permeability with total liquids saturation. Oppositely to previous studies, air permeability was measured by fitting pressure data measured in a 3D laboratory venting pilot to an analytical airflow solution. The experimental correlation was compared with two different correlations published previously. A difference was observed between measured and calculated air relative air permeabilities especially for low water saturation degrees. The importance of the correct estimate of relative permeability was then illustrated by comparing vacuums and streamlines calculated using measured permeability and permeability values estimated with the two correlations tested here. Results show that an inappropriate assessment of relative permeability may engender significant errors in designing an SVE system. The second part of this work reports on the influence of air permeability change on the prediction capability of an SVE mathematical model. A significant difference between simulated breakthrough curves, estimated using firstly the relationship established experimentally and secondly the two other correlations, was observed. These results lead us to say that inadequate characterization of the air permeability change may generate significant errors in removal rate and closure time estimates.     

横波各向异性在裂缝和应力分析中的应用

针对裂缝性和低孔低渗地层的横波各向异性特征,反演得到横波各向异性参数,研究了裂缝的发育程度、方位和有效性,并对低孔低渗地层的应力场分布状态和方位进行了综合评价;通过对反演得到的快、慢弯曲波形进行频散分析以及计算单极横波各向异性大小,确定了引起横波各向异性的原因,并结合常规测井资料、岩心及FMI成像资料对分析结果进行了验证和对比,最后对研究区8口典型井的横波各向异性进行了综合处理和评价,得到了该区的横波各向异性特征以及和总的应力场走向.结果表明,利用横波的各向异性参数可以有效的评价裂缝的发育程度、走向及有效性,并能准确的确定地应力分布状态和最大水平应力方位.     

基于LWPC和IRI模型的NWC台站信号传播幅度建模分析

频率为3~30 kHz的甚低频（VLF,Very Low Frequency）电磁波具有波长长、传播距离远的特点,能够沿地面-低电离层波导进行传播,在通信、导航等许多领域都被广泛应用.基于波导模理论的长波传播模型（LWPC,Long-Wavelength Propagation Capability）能够用于计算甚低频波的传播路径及幅度,进而研究耀斑、磁暴、地震等事件对电离层的扰动.本文利用国际电离层参考模型（IRI,International Reference Ionosphere）对LWPC中电子密度和碰撞频率进行改进,并将模拟结果与武汉大学VLF接收机实际观测到的NWC（North West Cape）台站信号幅度进行比较分析,结果表明改进后LWPC模型得到的幅度及变化趋势与实际值更加接近.LWPC模型给出的电子密度与IRI模型得到的电子密度在日间基本一致,但是在夜间存在差异,造成夜间部分区域NWC台站信号幅度的差异性,验证了电离层电子密度对于VLF信号传播具有的重要影响.传播路径上的晨昏变化也可以引起VLF信号幅度分布的突变,在日出和日落时间段内存在明显的过渡区域.基于IRI模型的LWPC,改善了VLF电波传播过程的预测分析效果,提供了一种长波导航通信质量的评估方法.

     

基于“水文频率-水质”拟合曲线的河流水质变异与等级特征值分析方法

时空特征分析对全面掌握水质变异规律具有重要意义,但现有的水质时空特征分析方法仍存在水质变异次序不分、水质变幅极值不清、水质评价特征值不明等不足。为更加清晰地探析水质时空特征信息,以秦淮河为研究对象,参考工程水文学经验频率法,建立“水文频率-水质”拟合曲线用于探索流域内高/低活动区不同时间段和丰/枯水期不同河段水质变异特征,并与传统的箱线图法进行对比。结果表明:与箱线图相比,“水文频率-水质”拟合曲线可量化关键水质评判点与特征值信息,使水质时空变异过程更为清晰。在时间上“水文频率-水质”拟合曲线的最佳形式为线性曲线,水质浓度一般不会发生突变;在空间上“水文频率-水质”拟合曲线的最佳形式为指数曲线,水质浓度有较大可能发生突增。各时间段高活动区氮磷浓度大于低活动区,各水体断面丰水期氮磷浓度低于枯水期。该方法分析过程简单方便,结果直观有序,能将水质信息以统计规律自动反映出来,在水质采样点、采样时间和采样频率典型时可作为优选方法用于河流水质时空特征研究。     

MSCT对不同体重注射不同对比剂量在主动脉CTA中的探讨

目的:探讨64层螺旋CT对不同体重注射不同对比剂量在主动脉血管成像中的应用效果.方法:60例临床可疑主动脉病变患者,知情同意后根据不同体重分为A、B、C三组,每组20例.A组:体重在75kg以上注射75mL对比剂+25mL生理盐水;B组:体重在60～75kg之间注射60mL对比剂+40 mL生理盐水;C组:体重在60k...     

A meta‐analysis of reef island response to environmental change on the Great Barrier Reef

Reef islands on the Great Barrier Reef are influenced by a range of environmental factors. A meta‐analysis of 103 islands is presented to express variation in island size (area and volume) as a function of latitudinal and cross shelf gradients in regional oceanographic factors (exposure to incident waves, tidal range and tropical cyclone frequency) and local physical factors (position on the shelf, area, length and depth of supporting reef platform, vegetative cover). Models performed well for unvegetated sandcays (R² = 0.89), vegetated sandcays (R² = 0·72) and low wooded islands (R² = 0.78), with a moderate level of variation explained when all islands were simultaneously regressed (R² = 0.58). Future island dynamics were simulated for anticipated changes in cyclone regime, wave activity and sea level. For 38 islands mapped on the 1973 Royal Society and Universities of Queensland Expedition to the Northern Great Barrier Reef, change over the same 22 year period (1973–1995) was determined and the relative magnitude of observed and modelled changes was compared and found to be consistent through rank correlation analysis (Γ = 0.84 for unvegetated sandcays, Γ = 0.81 for vegetated sandcays). Simulations of island area or volume change from 2000 to 2100 indicated that under a 30% decrease in tropical cyclone activity, unvegetated sandcays continue to accrete at a lower rate, whereas all island types erode under a 38% increase in tropical cyclone activity. Vegetated sandcays initially accrete at higher levels of cyclone activity, entering an erosive state with a 60% increase in activity. Low wooded islands are unresponsive to environmental changes modelled. A sensitivity analysis of vegetated and unvegetated sandcays indicated that the presence of vegetation increases the tropical cyclone activity threshold at which islands begin to erode. Greatest sedimentary losses occur within the central band of high cyclone activity between Cooktown and Mackay. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical estimation of carbonate rock properties using multiscale images

Characterizing the pore space of rock samples using three‐dimensional (3D) X‐ray computed tomography images is a crucial step in digital rock physics. Indeed, the quality of the pore network extracted has a high impact on the prediction of rock properties such as porosity, permeability and elastic moduli. In carbonate rocks, it is usually very difficult to find a single image resolution which fully captures the sample pore network because of the heterogeneities existing at different scales. Hence, to overcome this limitation a multiscale analysis of the pore space may be needed. In this paper, we present a method to estimate porosity and elastic properties of clean carbonate (without clay content) samples from 3D X‐ray microtomography images at multiple resolutions. We perform a three‐phase segmentation to separate grains, pores and unresolved porous phase using 19 μm resolution images of each core plug. Then, we use images with higher resolution (between 0.3 and 2 μm) of microplugs extracted from the core plug samples. These subsets of images are assumed to be representative of the unresolved phase. We estimate the porosity and elastic properties of each sample by extrapolating the microplug properties to the whole unresolved phase. In addition, we compute the absolute permeability using the lattice Boltzmann method on the microplug images due to the low resolution of the core plug images. In order to validate the results of the numerical simulations, we compare our results with available laboratory measurements at the core plug scale. Porosity average simulations for the eight samples agree within 13%. Permeability numerical predictions provide realistic values in the range of experimental data but with a higher relative error. Finally, elastic moduli show the highest disagreements, with simulation error values exceeding 150% for three samples.