土地利用变化的解释

用途转移和集约度变化构成土地利用变化的两种基本类型。土地特性自身的变化、土地使用者个体经济行为分析及社会群体土地管理行为分析 ,构成土地利用变化解释的理论框架。从土地特性考察 ,多宜性和限制性是土地利用发生变化的基本条件。人类对土地利用的结果 ,总是趋向于使土地的多宜性降低和功能类型减少。竞租曲线、转移边际点以及打破土地利用空间均衡的条件分析 ,是土地利用变化经济分析的理论基础 ;“土地利用 -环境效应 -体制响应”反馈环的作用机制 ,构成社会群体土地管理行为分析的理论框架。土地利用变化的机理模型 ,目前主要以新古典经济学和地租理论为基础。多视角的探索可能是土地利用变化机理综合分析的有效途径。     

On the frequency distribution of land slope

Slope frequency distributions are computed from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of 18 areas from five different geographic and physiographic regions. Over 160,000 slope estimates are used in the definition of the slope frequency distribution for each area. Analysis of several transformations of the slope data indicates that no single transformation is capable of normalizing all slope distributions. This is, in part, due to the arbitrary placement of the boundaries of the map sheets used in the data collection. The square root of sine, however, provides better results than sine, log-tangent, or several other transformations. The degree of (positive) skewness of gradients in degrees correlates with the proportion of slopes below 2° or 5° (r_s = + 0·93), as does the kurtosis (r_s = + 0·91).     

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a large-scale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

卫星海洋水色遥感的辐射模式研究

海洋水体向上的辐射由水中多种成分的浓度所决定，同时辐射的强度十分微弱并随着时间和空间在变化。因此，海洋水色遥感需要从水体和大气辐射传递机理出发，研究到达卫星遥感器的辐射模式，以达到模拟仿真卫星水色遥感图像和卫星图像质量预测的目的。本研究通过叶绿素、悬浮泥沙和黄色物质等海洋水色的主要因子，分别从可见光波段和荧光波段对辐射的贡献出发，发展了海洋水体离水辐射率模式。在卫星水色遥感机理的基础上，同时运用Iqbal，Gordon和Sturm等的大气程辐射模式和太阳耀光模式，使卫星海洋水色遥感的辐射模式系统化，模拟仿真了我国1990年9月3日发射的FYIB卫星两个海洋水色通道的全轨道辐射图像，同时利用从德国柏林大学气象中心接收到的1990年9月23－25日卫星图像进行验证。结果认为，本文所发展的模式可应用于卫星图像质量的预测和水色信息的提取。     

Progress and Prospects of Research on Climatic Suitability at Home and Abroad

The research progress of climate suitability at home and abroad was briefly reviewed in this paper, which was divided into three stages: The initial stage of research, the initial development and application stage, and the application research warming stage. The main achievements and progress of climate suitability in China were also introduced from three aspects as follows: Improvement of climate suitability model, extension of climate suitability applications and development of climate suitability model. Based on the impact of climate change on agriculture and the weak links in climate suitability research, the focus and hotspot of future climate suitability research were proposed, which will be five important directions:The climate suitability model proceed from crop growth model, the climate suitability research proceed from characteristic agriculture, the climate suitability research proceed from climate change, the climate suitability model based on different theories and the climate suitability evaluation index research.     

气候适宜度国内外研究进展及展望

简要概述了国外在气候适宜度方面的研究现状,回顾了我国在气候适宜度方面的研究历程,将气候适宜度研究划分为3个阶段:研究的起步阶段、初步发展应用阶段及应用研究升温阶段。从气候适宜度模型的改进、气候适宜度应用的延伸及气候适宜度模型的发展3个方面介绍了我国在气候适宜度方面的主要成果和进展;从气候变化对农业的影响角度及气候适宜度研究存在的薄弱环节等方面,提出立足作物生长模型的气候适宜度模型研究、立足特色农业的气候适宜度研究、立足气候变化的气候适宜度研究、立足不同理论的气候适宜度模型研究和气候适宜度评价指标研究等方面将是未来气候适宜度研究的重点和热点。     

Simulating Potential Distribution of Tamarix chinensis in Yellow River Delta by Generalized Additive Models

There are typical ecosystems of littoral wetlands in the Yellow River Delta. In order to study the relationships between Tamarix chinensis and environmental variables and to predict T. chinensis potential distribution in the Yellow River Delta, 641 vegetation samples and 964 soil samples were collected in the area in October of 2004, 2005,2006 and 2007. The contents of soil organic matter, total phosphorus, salt, and soluble potassium were determined.Then, the analyzed data were interpolated into spatial raster data by Kriging interpolation method. Meanwhile, the digital elevation model, soil type map and landform unit map of the Yellow River Delta were also collected. Generalized Additive Models (CAMs) were employed to build species - environment model and then simulate the potential distribution of T. chinensis.The results indicated that the distribution of T. chinensis was mainly limited by soil salt content, total soil phosphorus content, soluble potassium content, soil type, landform unit, and elevation. The distribution probability of T. chinensis was produced with a lookup table generated by Grasp Module (based on GAMs) in software Arc View GIS 3.2. The AUC (Area Under Curve) value of validation and cross - validation of ROC (Receive Operating Characteristic) were both higher than 0.8, which suggested that the established model had a high precision for predicting species distribution.     

On the comparison of tidal gravity parameters with tidal models in central Europe

Two accurately calibrated superconducting gravimeters (SGs) provide high quality tidal gravity records in three central European stations: C025 in Vienna and at Conrad observatory (A) and OSG050 in Pecný (CZ). To correct the tidal gravity factors from ocean loading effects we compared the load vectors from different ocean tides models (OTMs) computed with different software: OLFG/OLMP by the Free Ocean Tides Loading Provider (FLP), ICET and NLOADF. Even with the recent OTMs the mass conservation is critical but the methods used to correct the mass imbalance agree within 0.1 nm/s². Although the different software agrees, FLP probably provides more accurate computations as this software has been optimised. For our final computation we used the mean load vector computed by FLP for 8 OTMs (CSR4, NAO99, GOT00, TPX07, FES04, DTU10, EOT11a and HAMTIDE). The corrected tidal factors of the 3 stations agree better than 0.04% in amplitude and 0.02° in phase. Considering the weighted mean of the three stations we get for O1 δ_c = 1.1535 ± 0.0001, for K1 δ_c = 1.1352 ± 0.0003 and for M2 δ_c = 1.1621 ± 0.0003. These values confirm previous ones obtained with 16 European stations. The theoretical body tides model DDW99/NH provides the best agreement for M2 (1.1620) and MATH01/NH for O1 (1.1540) and K1 (1.1350). The largest discrepancy is for O1 (0.05%). The corrected phase α_c does not differ significantly from zero except for K1 and S2. The calibrations of the two SG's are consistent within 0.025% and agree with Strasbourg results within 0.05%.     

On model validation for meso/submesoscale currents: Metrics and application to ROMS off Central California

ROMS with horizontal grid spacing of 3.5 km for the region off Central California was compared to RAFOS float observations and satellite altimetry on meso/submesoscales. The approach introduced and used two new metrics for model-data comparison, as well as suggested how to calculate these metrics for different spatio-temporal scales. The first metric consisted of the first two moments of exit time and was used to compare ROMS against RAFOS float observations at mid-depths (between 300 m and 350 m). Exit time is the time a float launched at a point takes to leave a domain for the first time. The second metric was spectral entropy and was used to estimate how well ROMS reproduced variability of the sea surface height (SSH) anomaly field extracted from an AVISO data set (1992–2007) for specified temporal and spatial scales. Calculations showed that ROMS reproduced the mid-depth mesoscale/submesoscale currents next to the coast in a very accurate manner (low-order exit time statistics of floats were reproduced by ROMS with an accuracy better than 95%); but ROMS overestimated the speed of westward drift of floats by as much as 20–30% at distances greater than 350 km from the coastline. ROMS predicted the variability of the mesoscale (100–400 km) SSH anomaly field for temporal scales of 1–12 months with a reasonable accuracy. A wavelet transform modulus maxima technique applied to the spectral entropy of SSH anomaly also demonstrated good agreement between ROMS and satellite altimetry for mesoscales characterized by singular exponents and multi-fractal spectra for 1–12 month time scales.