应力调制在辽宁地区地震预报中的应用

应用应力调制图像法对辽宁地区1970年以来的21次ML≥5．0地震进行了检验。结果显示，有18次地震的震前出现了S值异常单元，虚报地震11次，漏报3次，R值评分0．58。     

中国物理海洋学研究70年:发展历程、学术成就概览

本文概略评述新中国成立70年来物理海洋学各分支研究领域的发展历程和若干学术成就。中国物理海洋学研究起步于海浪、潮汐、近海环流与水团,以及以风暴潮为主的海洋气象灾害的研究。随着国力的增强,研究领域不断拓展,涌现了大量具有广泛影响力的研究成果,其中包括:提出了被国际广泛采用的“普遍风浪谱”和“涌浪谱”,发展了第三代海浪数值模式;提出了“准调和分析方法”和“潮汐潮流永久预报”等潮汐潮流的分析和预报方法;发现并命名了“棉兰老潜流”,揭示了东海黑潮的多核结构及其多尺度变异机理等,系统描述了太平洋西边界流系;提出了印度尼西亚贯穿流的南海分支(或称南海贯穿流);不断完善了中国近海陆架环流系统,在南海环流、黑潮及其分支、台湾暖流、闽浙沿岸流、黄海冷水团环流、黄海暖流、渤海环流,以及陆架波方面均取得了深刻的认识;从大气桥和海洋桥两个方面对太平洋–印度洋–大西洋洋际相互作用进行了系统的总结;发展了浅海水团的研究方法,基本摸清了中国近海水团的分布和消长特征与机制,在大洋和极地水团分布及运动研究方面也做出了重要贡献;阐明了南海中尺度涡的宏观特征和生成机制,揭示了中尺度涡的三维结构,定量评估了其全球物质与能量输运能力;基本摸清了中国近海海洋锋的空间分布和季节变化特征,提出了地形、正压不稳定和斜压不稳定等锋面动力学机制;构建了“南海内波潜标观测网”,实现了对内波生成–演变–消亡全过程机理的系统认识;发展了湍流的剪切不稳定理论,提出了海流“边缘不稳定”的概念,开发了海洋湍流模式,提出了湍流混合参数化的新方法等;在海洋内部混合机制和能量来源方面取得了新的认识,并阐述了混合对海洋深层环流、营养物质输运等过程的影响;研发了全球浪–潮–流耦合模式,推出一系列海洋与气候模式;发展了可同化主要海洋观测数据的海洋数据同化系统和用于ENSO预报的耦合同化系统;建立了达到国际水准的非地转(水槽/水池)和地转(旋转平台)物理模 型实验平台;发展了ENSO预报的误差分析方法,建立了海洋和气候系统年代际变化的理论体系,揭示了中深层海洋对全球气候变化的响应;初步建成了中国近海海洋观测网;持续开展南北极调查研究;建立了台风、风暴潮、巨浪和海啸的业务化预报系统,为中国气象减灾提供保障;突破了国外的海洋技术封锁,研发了万米水深的深水水听器和海洋光学特性系列测量仪器;建立了溢油、危险化学品漂移扩散等预测模型,为伴随海洋资源开发所带来的风险事故的应急处理和预警预报提供科学支撑。文中引用的大量学术成果文献(每位第一作者优选不超过3篇)显示,经过70年的发展,中国物理海洋学研究培养了一支实力雄厚的科研队伍,这是最宝贵的成果。这支队伍必将成为中国物理海洋学研究攀登新高峰的主力军。     

泉州湾水域浮游植物群落的昼夜变化

对福建省泉州湾口、大坠岛以北水域的浮游植物群落作了准同步昼夜连续观测,观测时间分别在2001年11月至2002年8月内的秋(11月)、冬(2月)、春(5月)、夏(8月)季大潮期.结果表明,该水域的叶绿素a生物量(以下简称生物量)受湾内高生物量的影响在潮汐作用下出现波动,高潮期出现低生物量,低潮期出现高生物量.靠近内湾的站位生物量大于湾外的站位;底层水体中的生物量普遍大于表层,底栖硅藻成为生物量变化的重要部分.调查海区生物量呈现昼夜节律变化,生物量白天高于夜间.进一步的分析表明,在潮汐和昼夜变化综合作用下,浮游植物的群落结构发生相应变化,白天的多样性指数低于夜间,浮游植物昼夜群落的不相似度很高.群落中一些种类如中肋骨条藻白天大量增殖,出现较高的优势度,昼夜平均密度比值达到9,变化节律明显.研究认为,尽管海区潮汐和流向左右着生物量变化,浮游植物的生态学过程如细胞增殖、再悬浮、扩散等过程在昼夜生物量变化中仍产生较大作用.     

A COMPARISON OF EASTERN AND WESTERN HONG KONG PHYTOPLANKTON FROM WEEKLY SAMPLES (1997-1999)

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Observation of recent tectonic movements by extensometers in the Pannonian Basin

In Hungary four extensometric observatories were established in the last two decades. The extensometers were installed primarily for observations of Earth tides. A 15-year continuous data series (1991–2005) was recorded at the Sopronbánfalva station and a 7-year record (1993–1999) was obtained at the Pécs station. The length of the measured continuous data series at the two other stations (Bakonya and Budapest) is only a few years. The long-term data records were also applied to the investigation of long-periodic deformations caused by recent tectonic movements. To get an insight into the present day tectonic processes on the margin of the Pannonian Basin, the measurement results of two additional stations (Vyhne in Slovakia and Beregovo in Ukraine) were also included into the investigations. The seasonal variations in the long data series due to temperature and air pressure effects were eliminated. The residual curve – after the correction of the seasonal effects and filtering the “high frequency” components (e.g. earthquakes, Earth tides, etc.) – contains the instrumental drift. It is impossible to determine this curve mathematically. It can be diminished by special instrumental solutions and by regular calibration of the instruments. This paper shows methods and possible solutions how the instrumental drift was investigated and eliminated in order to get the most reliable data for studying recent tectonic movements. The reliability of the extensometric measurements was tested by the tidal evaluation of the data series. The results of the observations show that the Pannonian Basin is under compressive stress. The strain rates measured by extensometers on the margin of the basin are about three orders of magnitude higher than the intra-plate strains obtained by GPS measurements. The reason for this large difference arises from the interaction between the plate boundary and intra-plate forces and from the different measurement techniques. Investigations showed that the rate of the tectonic movements varies, and depends on the local geographical and topographical conditions.     

SSQ-1 Digital Tape Recording Horizontal Pendulum Tiltmeter

The SSQ-1 Digital Tape Recording Horizontal Pendulum Tiltmeter is an instrument of high sensitivity to detect the changes of ground tilt. It uses a quartz horizontal pendulum held by Z?llner bifilar suspension to sense vertical displacement, the eddy-current transducer on the pendulum converts its displacements into electric signals. Then a microcomputer is used for data acquisition and printing as well as digit tape recording. And at the same time, a filtering pen recorder is used for visible recording. The scale value of the instrument is calibrated by computer using the known tilt angle of the bulging plate — mercury cup. The scale value is 0.3–0.5 m(″)/mV. The following are the testing results for the earth tide observation obtained from the east-west component at Baijiatan Seismic Station, Beijing: r(O₁): 0.6490±0.0179 α(O₁): −3.83°±1.58° r(K₁): 0.8049±0.0128 α(K₁): 1.40°±0.90° r(M₂): 0.6699±0.0040 α(M₂): −0.27°±0.34° r(S₂): 0.7316±0.0075 α(S₂): 2.83°±0.58° r(M₃): 0.8497±0.0964 α(M₃): 1.61°±6.51° The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 353–359, 1993. In this work also participated Mr. Huai-Wen PAN and Wei-Jin ZHANG. And we here give special thanks to Yun-Zao XI, Qin-Wen XI, Bo-Xong TANG, Yi-Hui CHEN and An-Xu WU for their kind help in the development and test of the instrument. This paper is translated by Mr. Zhong ZHENG.     

2004年12月26日印尼地震海啸与全球低温

气候潮汐循环说和海震调温说,阐明了冷气候、强潮汐和强震相互对应的物理机制,对2000年地球进入拉马德雷冷位相后的气候预测有重大科学意义.中国连续18年暖冬的终结是2000年地球进入拉马德雷冷位相和印尼发生地震海啸的合理结果.规律表明,在拉马德雷冷位相时期,全球强震、低温、飓风伴随拉尼娜、全球性流感伴随厄尔尼诺将越来越强烈.在20世纪50~70年代,强沙尘暴年与流感爆发年一一对应,沙尘暴可能传播禽流感。     

Comparison of two extensometric stations in Hungary

Quartz-tube extensometers are used to measure rock deformations in two geodynamic observatories in Hungary in order to contribute to the investigation of recent tectonic movements on the area of the Pannonian Basin. One of the observatories is situated on the border of the Alps at Sopronbánfalva and is set in the metamorphic (gneiss) material of the mountains. The other station is in the basically karstic environment of the Mátyáshegy (Mátyás Hill) near Budapest. The aim of this paper is to investigate how the local conditions, such as structure of the observatory, topography or geologic features of the surrounding rocks, lead to additional or modified deformations of the extensometric stations. Data collected over eight years were processed and analysed to compare the observatories taking into account geologic, lithologic and topograpic properties of the measurement sites. Tidal and coherence analysis of the continuous strain measurements revealed that the instrument at Sopronbánfalva is more sensitive to atmospheric pressure loading than the extensometer at Mátyáshegy. Signal to noise values from the data processing of the short period variations support the higher stability of tidal strain measurements at Mátyáshegy. The strain rates measured by extensometers in both observatories are in good agreement with the strain rates inferred from GPS measurements of the Hungarian GPS Geodynamic Reference Network and the Central European GPS Reference Network.     

长江口海域赤潮成因及其防治对策

对长江口海域的赤潮发生形势进行了系统总结与分析,探讨了长江口海域赤潮灾害的成因及其防治对策。长江口及邻近海域是我国赤朝高发区,自20世纪80年代以来赤潮发生越来越频繁,赤潮生物种类增加,2002年首次发生了有毒亚历山大藻(Alexandrium sp．)赤潮,赤潮危害程度在增大,这与长江口海域的环境和生物条件、河口最大军浊带、长江上游大型水利工程建设以及全球气候变化对长江口海域赤潮高发区的影响有直接关系,同时河口海域甲藻孢囊也是赤潮发生的种源。建议建立赤潮立体监测体系、赤潮信息管理系统、海产品赤潮毒素卫生检疫制度和赤潮应急响应机制,全面加强长江口海域的赤潮监控与防治工作。