THE BEIJING AREA MESOSCALE NWP SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION

Significant progress has been made on the development of mesoscale numerical weather prediction(NWP)system for Beijing area,as a joint project of the National Meteorological Center(NMC)andthe Beijing Meteorological Bureau(BMB).On the basis of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model PSU/NCAR MM5,a mesoscale NWP system for Beijing area(BJ-MM5V.1)has been developed on thecomputer IBM/SP2 MPP with 24 nodes at NMC.As a two-way nested grid model two grids arechosen with 45 and 15km grid length respectively,and 23 levels in the vertical.It takes 2 hours and20 minutes to make a 36h forecast,which satisfies the time requirement for the operational use.Inaddition to the routine data received from GTS at NMC,the enhanced observations over Beijingregion are used for the objective analyses.This system was put into semi-operational use during thesummer of 1997 to test its performance.The forecast products,hourly rainfalls and all of themeteorological elements needed,are provided to the forecasters at BMB for use.It is identified fromthe test results that the system is robust and has pretty good ability to forecast the spatial andtemporal distribution of the precipitation for the local heavy rainfalls.     

用青藏高原1～3月OLR作我国夏季降水预报的探讨

对青藏高原１～３月ＯＬＲ与我国夏季降水进行时空综合的ＥＯＦ分析,所得高原ＯＬＲ的时空特征与其单获ＥＯＦ分析的时空特征十分相似,由此,对时空综合ＥＯＦ分析法拟合降水场的收敛速度进行了分析,探讨了用亮原１～３月ＯＬＲ预报我国夏季降水场的可行性,并对预报误差的原因进行了分析。     

THE EAST ASIA/PACIFIC PATTERN TELECONNECTION OF SUMMER CIRCULATION AND CLIMATE ANOMALY IN EAST ASIA

In this paper,many observations show that the thermal states including the SST,the convective activities in the west-ern Pacific warm pool largely influence the interannual and intraseasonal variations of summer circulation and the cli-mate anomalies in East Asia.Moreover,it is pointed out that there is a teleconnection pattern of summer circulationanomalies in the Northern Hemisphere,the so-called East Asia/Pacific pattern.The cause of the teleconnection pattern is studied by using the theory of quasi-stationary planetary wave propaga-tion,and it may be due to the propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves forced by heat source around thePhilippines.Moreover,this pattern is well simulated by using a quasi-geostrophic,linear,spherical model and theIAP-GCM,respectively.     

暖底积云自然降水过程和 人工催化个例数值模拟

利用一维积雨云双参数模式模拟福建省的暖底积云自然降水过程和催化过程。模拟结果表明:暖云催化影响了降水的演变过程,不仅使总降水量增加,而且改变了降水的分布,使降水提前出现。冷云催化对降水过程没有发生明显的影响。对催化云和自然云云水和雨水含量的模拟表明:暖云催化使云中碰并过程提前出现,导致催化云中云水含量明显少于自然云中的云水含量:催化云雨水含量先是明显大于自然云中的雨水含量,随后明显小于自然云中的雨水含量。     

滇中暴雨的湿位涡诊断分析

应用湿位涡理论,对１９９８年６月滇中地区罕见的６场暴雨过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明：θｅ面陡立且南侧暖湿气流活跃,易导致湿斜压涡度发展,形成θｅ陡峭密集区,密集区内暴雨容易发生;湿空气对流活动层仅能达到５００ｈＰａ至６００ｈＰａ之间,若对流层低层ＭＰＶ１〈０,同时ＭＰＶ２〉０,易产生暴雨。     

1998年夏季松花江、嫩江流域大暴雨中尺度雨团活动分析

用地面逐时降水资料、静止卫星云图、雷达图及常规气象资料,分析了８月上旬不同时段松花江及嫩江流域出现的中尺度雨团（≥５．０ｍｍ／ｈ）活动情况。根据它们的活动特点及在卫生云图、雷达回波上的演变和物理量诊断场的特征,将其分为两类。第１类是典型的冷涡中尺度雨团,第２类为东南方有地面气旋活动的冷涡中尺度雨团,它们都出现在冷涡的成熟及消亡阶段,活动在冷涡的不同部位,有着各自不同的演变特点。由此构建了相应的中尺     

预报异常极端高影响天气的 “集合异常预报法”：以北京2012年7月21日特大暴雨为例

对罕见极端高影响天气,既使一个模式有能力预报它,其数值预报也至少有以下难点:一是有多大把握确定所预报的天气是极端事件？二是其具体的定时、定量、定点预报可靠吗？本文介绍了集合预报和气候资料相结合的 “集合异常预报法”,并通过北京2012年7月21日（7.21）特大暴雨事件揭示出“集合异常预报法”和集合预报可以提供比单一模式预报更可靠和更准确的信息,从而可有效地缓解上述两大难点。作者建议中央气象台和其他有条件的台站可采用这种办法提高重大灾害性天气的预报能力。文中具体讨论了如下三方面:（1）标准化异常度（SA）的定义以及它同集合预报相结合提高对罕见极端高影响天气预报的可靠性,并由此可导出一个“社会影响矩阵”来定量地表达一个预报对社会的潜在影响;（2）利用集合预报,特别是多模式集合预报可以克服单一模式前后预报的跳跃性或不连续性问题,由此可延长实际可预报时效,如北京7.21事件超过100 mm大暴雨的实际可预报时效提前了2天;（3）SA还有助于认识异常天气发生的原因:从SA的分布看,造成北京7.21 大暴雨事件的短期天气尺度背景因素是从西北方向移来的冷锋和台风倒槽的相遇;从SA的演变看,该事件的中期大背景因素是在北京东北方向有阻塞高压发展并导致北京以西地区的低槽加强和发展（地面强冷空气堆积）,在高纬度形成了一个高、低压系统相间的波列,发展并维持,同时诱导热带系统北进。     

Energy Paths that Sustain the Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall over South China and Their Contrasts to the Frontal Rainfall: A Case Study

Predicting warm-sector torrential rainfall over South China, which is famous for its destructive power, is one of the most challenging issues of the current numerical forecast field. Insufficient understanding of the key mechanisms underlying this type of event is the root cause. Since understanding the energetics is crucial to understanding the evolutions of various types of weather systems, a general methodology for investigating energetics of torrential rainfall is provided in this study. By applying this methodology to a persistent torrential rainfall event which had concurrent frontal and warm-sector precipitation, the first physical image on the energetics of the warm-sector torrential rainfall is established. This clarifies the energy sources for producing the warm-sector rainfall during this event. For the first time, fundamental similarities and differences between the warm-sector and frontal torrential rainfall are shown in terms of energetics. It is found that these two types of rainfall mainly differed from each other in the lower-tropospheric dynamical features, and their key differences lay in energy sources. Scale interactions (mainly through downscale energy cascade and transport) were a dominant factor for the warm-sector torrential rainfall during this event, whereas, for the frontal torrential rainfall, they were only of secondary importance. Three typical signals in the background environment are found to have supplied energy to the warm-sector torrential rainfall, with the quasi-biweekly oscillation having contributed the most.     

福建西部山区一次中尺度对流系统触发机制分析

利用常规天气资料及地面自动站、风廓线雷达、新一代天气雷达资料和ERA-Interim逐6 h 0.125°×0.125°再分析资料,分析2015年5月19日福建西部山区一次极端降水的中尺度特征。结果表明：(1)极端降水分为锋前暖区降水和锋面降水两个阶段,暴雨区位于低空西南急流轴左侧,水汽充足,冷暖空气交汇,不稳定能量大,抬升凝结高度和自由对流高度低,大气可降水量大及中等强度的垂直风切变形成有利于中尺度对流系统(mesoscale covective system, MCS)发展的环境条件。(2)锋前暖区降水期间,西南气流携带高能量和水汽充足的空气移入暴雨区被中尺度边界附近的冷出流空气抬升,不断产生新的对流单体,对流单体向东北偏东方向移动,排列形成短雨带;若干条东北—西南向长度不等的短雨带在中尺度出流边界北侧建立,缓慢向东移动,依次重复影响关键区;暴雨关键区存在辐合线和风速辐合,为降水提供了良好的动力抬升条件;向西南开口的河谷地形加强了对流的发展;对流单体不断后部建立和东北西南向多个短雨带重复影响同一地区的列车效应是此阶段MCS主要发展方式。(3)锋面降水期间,对流单体在低涡切变南侧风速...