物质平衡法对定容煤层气藏生产动态的预测

由于煤层气藏特殊的赋存及渗流方式,使其有别于常规气藏,而煤层气藏开采初期的多相渗流问题使其产能预测更为复杂。在定容煤层气藏物质平衡法基础上,利用历史生产数据完成线性拟合,并用拟合得到的参数对未来生产动态进行预测。通过将模型预测的平均地层压力、平均含水饱和度及产气、产水量随时间变化与CMG数值模拟结果进行对比分析,结果显示,本文方法预测结果较为准确可靠,尤其是在煤层气峰值产量之后。     

综合信息矿产资源预测半定量快速分析方法初探-以巴音诺尔公-狼山地区铜多金属矿预测分析为例

本文在研究巴音诺尔公-狼山地区区域地质背景和主控矿因素的基础上,应用MAPGIS图形编辑、数据库管理及空间分析查询检索功能,建立了渣尔秦山群、岩浆岩、断裂构造、矿产和地球化学等控矿信息图层,分析了该地区矿产资源与各类控矿信息的关系,确定了10个单位(2km)的范围内为大型断裂构造对矿产地的最佳影响带.以铜矿为例,圈定了霍各乞外围铜预测区、盖沙图-阿责庙一带铜预测区和朱拉扎嘎-红格尔玉林金铜多金属预测区.初步形成一套基于MAPGIS系统下的综合信息矿产资源预测半定量快速分析方法.     

基于主体功能区约束的大气污染物总量控制目标分配研究

考虑经济发展水平、污染物排放现状、污染物治理水平、空气质量,特别是国家主体功能区环境目标约束等因素,构建大气污染物排放总量分配的指标体系,用改进的等比例分配方法对2015年国家SO2,NOx总量控制目标进行区域分配。分配结果表明:SO2和NOx削减量大的省份主要集中在华北平原及其周围地区,这些地区污染物排放量大、空气质量较差;削减比例较大的地区主要集中在西部地区以及北京、天津2个直辖市,这些地区单位GDP能耗高、工业污染物去除率低、空气质量差;削减量相对较小的地区主要集中在西南和南部一些省份;削减比例较小的地区主要集中在中南部和南部几个省份,这些地区污染物排放量相对较少,空气质量好于其他省份。     

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.     

Suspended sediment and total dissolved solid yield patterns at the headwaters of Urumqi River,northwestern China: a comparison between glacial and non‐glacial catchments

In order to understand the differences in the suspended sediment and total dissolved solid (TDS) yield patterns between the glacial and non‐glacial catchments at the headwaters of Urumqi River, northwestern China, water samples were collected from a glacier catchment and an empty cirque catchment within the region, during three melting seasons from 2006 to 2008. These samples were analyzed to estimate suspended sediment and TDS concentrations, fluxes and erosion rates in the two adjoining catchments. There were remarked differences in suspended sediment and TDS yield patterns between the two catchments. Suspended sediment concentrations were controlled mainly by the sediment source, whereas TDS concentrations were primarily related to the hydrologic interaction with soil minerals. Generally, the glacial catchment had much higher suspended sediment and TDS yields, together with higher denudation rates, than the non‐glacial catchment. Overall, glacial catchment was mainly dominated by physical denudation process, whereas the non‐glacial catchment was jointly influenced by physical and chemical denudation processes. The observed differences in material delivery patterns were mainly controlled by the runoff source and the glacial processes. The melting periods of glacier and snow were typically the most important time for the suspended sediment and TDS yields. Meanwhile, episodic precipitation events could generate disproportionately large yields. Subglacial hydrology dynamics, glaciers pluck and grind processes could affect erodibility, and the large quantities of dust stored on the glacier surface provided additional sources for suspended sediment transport in the glacial catchment. These mechanisms imply that, in response to climate change, the catchment behaviour will be modified significantly in this region, in terms of material flux. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

影像全站仪在文物三维数字化测量中的应用与实践

根据影像全站仪的工作原理,总结出在文物测绘中的技术路线,研究点云数据处理过程中拼接、降噪、纹理映射的方法,并通过对模型数据采集精度的分析,给出了合理的数据模型采集值,为影像全站仪快速、可靠的在文物三维数字化建模中提供有益的借鉴。     

基于AutoCAD的天津测绘生产系统设计与实现

城市测量的种类多且内业成果复杂,天津对各项内业成果都有特定的要求,急需一个统一的生产平台。通过对勘测定界、地籍等9类项目进行分析,规范了生产制作流程,制定了描述多种数据格式的标准,设计了系统结构,在AutoCAD基础上开发实现了天津测绘生产自动化系统。系统以项目工程为单元对成果数据进行管理,实现了标准化生产。     

求解GM(1,1)模型新总体最小二乘算法

在GM(1,1)模型中系数矩阵和观测向量都是由原始序列组成的。系数矩阵中同样是有误差的,与观测向量中的误差一样,亦来源于原始序列,即它们误差同源。不同位置的相同元素应该有相同的改正数,采用传统总体最小二乘求解则不能达到此目的。针对这一缺陷,推导了一种新的总体最小二乘算法;并且通过算例验证了新方法的可行性和有效性。     

Estimation of transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift: an aggregated data case study

Studies in transportation planning routinely use data in which location attributes are an important source of information. Thus, using spatial attributes in urban travel forecasting models seems reasonable. The main objective of this paper is to estimate transit trip production using Factorial Kriging with External Drift (FKED) through an aggregated data case study of Traffic Analysis Zones in São Paulo city, Brazil. The method consists of a sequential application of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). The traditional Linear Regression (LR) model was adopted with the aim of validating the proposed method. The results show that PCA summarizes and combines 23 socioeconomic variables using 4 components. The first component is introduced in KED, as secondary information, to estimate transit trip production by public transport in geographic coordinates where there is no prior knowledge of the values. Cross-validation for the FKED model presented high values of the correlation coefficient between estimated and observed values. Moreover, low error values were observed. The accuracy of the LR model was similar to FKED. However, the proposed method is able to map the transit trip production in several geographical coordinates of non-sampled values.