Estimation of the temporal autocorrelation structure by the collocation technique with an emphasis on soil moisture studies

Abstract

The collocation technique has become a popular tool in oceanography and hydrology for estimating the error variances of different data sources such as in situ sensors, models and remote sensing products. It is also possible to determine calibration constants, for example to account for an off-set between the data sources. So far, the temporal autocorrelation structure of the errors has not been studied, although it is known that it has detrimental effects on the results of the collocation technique, in particular when calibration constants are also determined. This paper shows how the (triple) collocation estimators can be adapted to retrieve the autocovariance functions; the statistical properties as well as the structural deficencies are described. The coupling between the autocorrelation of the error and the estimation of calibration constants is studied in detail, due to its importance for analysing temporal changes. In soil moisture applications, such time variations can be induced, for example, by seasonal changes in the vegetation cover, which affect both models and remote sensing products. The limitations of the proposed technique associated with these considerations are analysed using remote sensing and in situ soil moisture data. The variability of the inter-sensor calibration and the autocovariance are shown to be closely related to temporal patterns of the data.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Zwieback, S., Dorigo, W., and Wagner, W., 2013. Estimation of the temporal autocorrelation structure by the collocation technique with an emphasis on soil moisture studies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1729–1747.     

积雪在El Niño影响东亚夏季气候异常中的作用

本文利用1948-2010年Global Land Data Assimilation System（GLDAS）NOAH陆面模式资料、GPCC月平均降水资料和NCAR/NCEP全球月平均再分析资料,采用滤波、距平合成和线性相关等方法,分析了El Niño成熟位相冬季欧亚大陆积雪异常的分布特征,研究了关键区积雪融化对后期春、夏季土壤湿度、土壤温度以及大气环流与降水的影响,揭示了El Niño事件通过关键区积雪储存其强迫信号并影响东亚夏季气候异常的机制和过程.主要结论如下：El Niño成熟阶段冬季伊朗高原、巴尔喀什湖东北部和青藏高原南麓区域是雪深异常的三个关键区,这些区域的雪深、雪融和土壤湿度有明显的正相关;这三个关键区雪深异常通过春季融雪将冬季El Niño信号传递给春、夏季局地土壤湿度,通过减少感热通量和增加潜热通量对大气环流产生影响;春末夏初伊朗高原土壤湿度异常对东亚夏季气候异常的影响最大,其引起的降水异常与El Niño次年夏季降水异常分布基本一致,春夏季青藏高原南麓和巴尔喀什湖附近土壤湿度也都明显增加,均会对中国华北降水增加有显著正贡献.总之,在利用El Niño事件研究和预测东亚夏季气候异常时,还应考虑关键区雪深异常对El Niño信号的存储和调制作用.     

Soil moisture dynamics across landscape types in an arid inland river basin of Northwest China

A combination of field measurements, continuous monitoring and numerical modelling was used to evaluate soil moisture regimes at four sites across a landscape gradient of the Heihe River Basin. Recorded data of precipitation, irrigation and floods were used to build the model, and an optimization technique was employed to calibrate the parameters. Based on the optimized parameters and estimates of future scenarios, the modelling structure was employed to predict the changes in the growing season soil moisture regimes due to climate change and intensive management. The results suggest that the upper‐reach Yeniugou and Xishui sites will become wetter because of alterations in the precipitation regime, and this trend could be strengthened by the expected amplified interannual variability. Precipitation features at middle‐reach Linze and lower‐reach Ejina, however, are not expected to change in the future. We assumed that a more water‐saving irrigation system will replace the current traditional one, and hence, the soil moisture probability density function at the Linze site would tend to be narrowed to ranges around either the wilting point or the point of incipient water stress, depending on how the intervention point and target level are settled. Ejina is expected to experience the most extreme ecological conversion effects in the future, and soil moisture would be more frequently recharged by water delivery. However, the soil moisture regime would not change much because of the poor water‐holding capacity and intensive evaporation. The revealed patterns and predicted shifts in soil moisture dynamics could provide a useful reference for identifying robust long‐term water resource management strategies for the Heihe River Basin. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Particle Filter-based assimilation algorithms for improved estimation of root-zone soil moisture under dynamic vegetation conditions

In this study, we implement Particle Filter (PF)-based assimilation algorithms to improve root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) estimates from a coupled SVAT-vegetation model during a growing season of sweet corn in North Central Florida. The results from four different PF algorithms were compared with those from the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) when near-surface soil moisture was assimilated every 3 days using both synthetic and field observations. In the synthetic case, the PF algorithm with the best performance used residual resampling of the states and obtained resampled parameters from a uniform distribution and provided reductions of 76% in root mean square error (RMSE) over the openloop estimates. The EnKF provided the RZSM and parameter estimates that were closer to the truth than the PF with an 84% reduction in RMSE. When field observations were assimilated, the PF algorithm that maintained maximum parameter diversity offered the largest reduction of 16% in root mean square difference (RMSD) over the openloop estimates. Minimal differences were observed in the overall performance of the EnKF and PF using field observations since errors in model physics affected both the filters in a similar manner, with maximum reductions in RMSD compared to the openloop during the mid and reproductive stages.     

How is water availability related to the land use and morphology of an inland valley wetland in Kenya?

Small inland valley wetlands contribute substantially to the livelihoods of rural communities in East Africa. Their conversion into farmland is driven by water availability. We quantified spatial-temporal dynamics of water availability in a headwater wetland in the humid zone of Kenya. Climatic conditions, soil moisture contents, groundwater levels and discharge data were monitored. A land-use map and a digital elevation model of the valley bottom were created to relate variations in soil moisture to dominant land uses and valley morphology.Upland crops occupied about a third of the wetland area, while approximately a quarter of the wet, central part of the valley bottom was designated for flood-tolerant taro, grown either by itself or in association or in rotation with upland crops. Finally, natural vegetation was found in 3% of the mapped area, mainly in sections with nearpermanent soil saturation.The HBV rainfall-runoff model's overestimation of stream discharge during the long dry season of the hydrological year 2010/2011 can be explained by the strong seasonal impact of water abstraction on the wetland's water balance.Our study vividly demonstrates the necessity of multi-method approaches for assessing the impact of management practices on water availability in valley bottom wetlands in East Africa.     

Hydropedology of a mildly‐arid loess covered area,southern Israel

Extensive loess covered areas characterize the mildly arid areas of western Israel, where average annual rainfall is 280 mm. Hydrological data point to a peculiar hydrological behavior of the ephemeral streams. The frequency of sporadic flash floods is very high. However, even in extreme rain events peak discharges are extremely low. Hydrographs are usually characterized by very steep rising and falling limbs, representative of saturated areas, extending over a limited part of the watershed. Following this observation we advanced the hypothesis that storm channel runoff originated in the channel itself, with negligible contribution from the adjoining hillslopes. The study was based on two complementary approaches. The hydrological approach was based on the detailed analysis of rainfall–runoff relationships in a small watershed (11 km²) and on the analysis of the hydrological characteristics of the drainage network. The second approach was based on the toposequence concept. Several boreholes were dug along a hillslope 400 m long. Chemical data obtained show no significant difference in the downslope direction. Similar results were also obtained for the particle size distribution and soil moisture content. Data obtained perfectly fit the concept of ‘Partial Area Contribution’ as it presents an extreme case of hydrological discontinuity at the hillslope–channel interface. The lack of pedological trends in the downslope direction is an additional indication of the limited connectivity between the hillslopes and the adjoining channel. The limited connectivity is attributed to the prevalence of low rain intensities in the study area. The present study is also relevant to our understanding of pedological processes in dryland areas. The high frequency of intermittent low intensity rainstorms limits runoff generation and flow distances, and casts doubt on the general application of the toposequence approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tide-induced variability in beach surface moisture: Observations and modelling

The moisture content w_s of a beach surface strongly controls the availability of sand for aeolian transport. Our predictive capability of the spatiotemporal variability in w_s, which depends to a large extent on water table depth, is, however, limited. Here we show that water table fluctuations and surface moisture content observed during a 10-day period on a medium-grained (365μm) planar (1:30) beach can be predicted well with the nonlinear Boussinesq equation extended to include run-up infiltration and a soil–water retention curve under the assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium. On the intertidal part of the beach the water table is observed and predicted to continuously fall from the moment the beach surface emerges from the falling tide to just before it is submerged by the incoming tide. We find that on the lower 30% of the intertidal beach the water table remains within 0.1–0.2 m from the surface and that the sand is always saturated (w_s≈20%, by mass). Higher up on the intertidal beach, the surface can dry to about 5% when the water table has fallen to 0.4–0.5 m beneath the surface. Above the high-tide level the water table is always too deep (>0.5 m) to affect surface moisture and, without precipitation, the sand is dry (w_s < 5 − 8%). Because the water table depth on the emerged part of the intertidal beach increases with time irrespective of whether the (ocean) tide falls or rises, we find no need to include hysteresis (wetting and drying) effects in the surface-moisture modelling. Model simulations suggest that at the present planar beach only the part well above mean sea level can dry sufficiently (w_s < 10%) for sand to become available for aeolian transport. ©2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

青藏高原蒸散年际变化及其对西风和季风环流的响应

在评估4种蒸散格点资料（GLDAS,GLEAM,MERRA-2,CRET）在青藏高原适用性的基础上,以精度最高的CRET（R²为0.83,RMSE为14.76 mm）及同期气象环境数据,在年际尺度上分析了青藏高原蒸散变化特征及其受大尺度西风和季风环流的影响.结果表明,青藏高原年平均蒸散为414.2±18.32 mm,具有明显的年际变率和变化趋势,且区域（西风区、季风区和过渡区）间差异明显.蒸散年际变化与西风和季风环流强弱的年际变化密切相关,且季风和西风对蒸散的影响存在显著的区域差异.西风和季风通过调节局地气候环境因子影响蒸散：土壤湿度、归一化植被指数（NDVI）和风速三个局地气候环境要素是青藏高原蒸散主要调控因子,蒸散与土壤湿度和NDVI呈显著正相关,与风速在高原西部呈显著负相关、在高原东部呈显著正相关;研究WYI（Webster-Yang Index）和WI（Westerly Index）与影响蒸散的主导气候环境因子的关系发现,WYI与土壤湿度和NDVI呈显著正相关,且WYI与NDVI的相关系数在高原中部和南部较大,使得WYI对蒸散影响在中部分过渡区和南部季风区较大,WI也与土壤湿度和NDVI呈显著正相关,但WI与NDVI的相关系数在中部和北部较大,WI对蒸散影响在中部过渡区和北部西风区较大,同时,WI与风速在大部分高原显著相关,WI在高原东部通过风速对蒸散变化具有正贡献,使得季风区东部蒸散年际变化也受WI影响,最终使得WI对蒸散的影响在除季风区西部以外的区域较大.该研究结果可加深认识青藏高原水循环变化及其机理,为区域水资源和生态系统管理提供科学依据.

     

古尔班通古特沙漠南部沙垄水分动态--兼论积雪融化和冻土变化对沙丘水分分异作用

2004年3月至2005年7月对古尔班通古特沙漠南部典型半固定沙垄土壤水分进行了系统监测,结合气象资料,特别是对冬季积雪和冻土资料的分析,认为该沙漠沙丘土壤水分时空变化规律在很大程度上受积雪融化和季节性冻土的影响.由于冬季稳定存在20~30 cm的积雪于春季融化,使得春季沙丘土壤含水率成为全年最高的季节,从而为早春植物的萌发生长创造了有利的条件.冬季1 m多深的冻土于早春时节由表及里开始消融,沙丘表面融化的雪水在坡面重力作用下,沿难以透水的冻土层上界自坡上向坡下发生迁移,在春夏季形成了垄间最高、坡部次之和垄顶最少的土壤水分空间格局.该研究具有生态学意义,可为古尔班通古特沙漠特殊环境条件下植被恢复与重建提供依据.     

晚中新世柴达木盆地低偏心率时期倾角驱动的干湿变化

当前间冰期正处在地球轨道低偏心率时期,在全球变暖的大趋势下北半球冰盖正逐渐消融。因此,解析北半球无冰背景下低偏心率时期亚洲内陆干湿变化规律和驱动机制,对预测该地区未来环境变化具有重要意义。然而,以前的研究关注亚洲内陆低偏心率时期环境变化的高分辨率记录较少,限制了对该区干湿循环和驱动机制的理解。柴达木盆地位于东亚季风降水边缘,对干湿变化非常敏感。选取柴达木盆地东北部大红沟剖面河湖相沉积地层,利用频率磁化率指标重建晚中新世时期(9~12 Ma)高分辨率干湿变化历史,揭示了典型的低偏心率时期干湿变化主导周期和轨道斜率驱动机制。结果表明,在低偏心率时期(9.2~9.4、 9.6~9.8和11.2~11.4 Ma),该区域干湿变化以4万年周期为主,对应倾角变化,说明在岁差振幅较小时,倾角变化可能上升为轨道调控干旱区干湿变化的主导因素。这一发现对理解未来气候变化具有一定的借鉴意义。