宁夏连阴雨(雪)过程变化规律研究

利用宁夏主要气象站1961年以来逐日降水及云量资料,定义了连阴雨（雪）日数的标准,分析了近50 a来宁夏连阴雨（雪）过程的分布特征、演变规律及与降水总量、干旱灾害的关系。1961年以来宁夏连阴雨（雪）过程总体呈下降趋势,尤其5~7日的过程显著下降;冬季连阴雨（雪）过程呈上升趋势,且近年来变率明显增大;其他季节呈下降趋势,尤其春季下降趋势最明显;进入21世纪以来,虽然连阴雨（雪）过程总体仍偏少,但比20世纪90年代明显增加,其中冬季各级别的次数均增加,而秋季4日以下、8日以上的连阴雨（雪）过程也增多,特别是8日以上的连阴雨（雪）过程,年、冬季、秋季均为各年代之首,尤其秋季平均每年偏多2.2站次。近50 a来,宁夏连阴雨（雪）过程降水量及持续时间均呈下降趋势,进入21世纪明显回升,且8日以上连阴雨（雪）过程、过程降水量超过50 mm的连阴雨均较80、90年代明显增加,尤其10日以上的过程总数及过程降水量在50.0~99.9 mm的连阴雨所占比例均达到各年代之最;连阴雨(雪)过程的减少使得降水量总量减少,干旱灾害增加。     

成矿地质事件的同位素年代学研究

成矿事件同位素地质年代学研究是一项十分重要而复杂的任务。成矿事件时间维的确定,对于矿床成因、成矿作用与其它异常地质事件的耦合关系的认识,以及对于找矿勘探均具有至关重要的理论和实际意义。文中讨论了各种常用测年方法（如Ｒｂ Ｓｒ、Ｓｍ Ｎｄ等时线法和Ｕ Ｐｂ法等）的适用性和局限性,并介绍了测年方法（尤其是与成矿事件年代学研究有关的测年方法）的新进展。结合国内外典型研究事例分析,比较了成矿事件的直接测年和间接测年方法,强调应在扎实的野外地质工作的基础上,综合采用多元同位素体系对成矿事件进行年代学研究。最后讨论了成矿事件与其它异常地质事件的耦合关系,并指出应加强成矿事件与大陆聚散旋回的时间耦合性的研究,这对于深入认识成矿规律具有重要意义     

南秦岭晚古生代海底喷气-沉积成矿系统

南秦岭显生宙喷气沉积成矿起始于晚志留世,泥盆纪是热水沉积成矿的主富集期,形成了以Ｐｂ,Ｚｎ为主的,伴生有Ｃｕ,Ａｇ,Ａｕ,Ｆｅ的矿床（体）和Ａｕ,Ｈｇ,Ｓｂ,Ａｓ等富集体,一般可划分出沉积和成岩两个阶段。之后发生了至少三个阶段的后生成矿作用,包括变质、改造、叠加成矿,以及局部的再造成矿。这一成矿系统有统一的物源和相似的金属组合,下伏沉积柱和基底提供了充足的Ｐｂ,Ｚｎ,Ａｕ,Ａｇ,Ｃｕ,Ｈｇ,Ｓｂ,Ａｓ以及Ｆｅ,Ｂａ等。成矿与该区地壳的构造盆地建造岩浆变质变形等演化相伴随,不同阶段与不同性质成矿流体的形成与贯穿造山前后的一系列热事件有密切成因联系,形成了这一金属硫化物成矿系统,并以主富集期和主要成矿形式给予命名     

用一个简单海气耦合模式对20世纪90年代厄尔尼诺事件的预报试验

使用一个动力海洋与统计大气耦合的热带太平洋模式,对２０ 世纪９０ 年代的厄尔尼诺事件进行了数值模拟和预报。结果表明,模式能较好地再现３ 次暖事件的发展和演化过程,也能模拟１９９５／１９９６ 年的冷海温过程。预报试验的结果指出,２０ 世纪 ９０ 年代发生的厄尔尼诺事件具有其特殊性,很难在发展阶段作出准确预报,而一旦形成后,模式仍可对这类事件的成熟位相阶段作出大致提前 ６ 个月的有效预报。文中还用该模式对 １９９７ 年的热带太平洋海表温度作了预报试验,预测 １９９７ 年年底可能发生一次新的厄尔尼诺事件。关键词：２０ 世纪９０ 年代厄尔尼诺,简单海气耦合模式,预报试验。     

Recent aquatic ecosystem response to environmental events revealed from Pb sediment profiles

The ²¹⁰Pb dating method was first introduced by Goldberg (1963), and since then has been applied to study sediment from lakes, estuaries and coastal marine environments. Hundreds of studies around the world have used ²¹⁰Pb as a geochronological tool in aquatic ecosystems. However little attention has been paid to the potential of this naturally occurring isotope as an environmental tracer of ecological events. Here we report three instances in which ²¹⁰Pb profiles measured on undisturbed sediment cores from lakes, rivers and fjords show us the potential of ²¹⁰Pb profile as a tracer of natural and anthropogenic processes. The methodology used here is a suite of techniques combining biogeochemistry (micro-electrodes), paleomagnetism (susceptibility), sediment characteristics (LOI) and visualization (SPI and X-ray) applied to the interpretation of ²¹⁰Pb profiles. We measured ²¹⁰Pb profiles on sediments from a river, Cruces River (Chile), which recorded a clear shift in the water chemistry caused by a pulp mill effluent to the river. Here metal mobilization and remobilization of the tracer may be the cause of the observed profile. We also measured ²¹⁰Pb profiles in sediment from two fjords of Southern Chile (Pillan and Reñihue), the sudden deposition change of fresh ²¹⁰Pb with depth observed could very well be the result of bioturbation but it occurred in a seafloor area deprived of bioturbators. In this case, ²¹⁰Pb recorded the onset of aquaculture activities (fish farming) that took place two decades ago. Finally, ²¹⁰Pb profiles measured in two lakes in the “pampa Argentina”: Epecuen and Venado showed a particular shape with depth. These profiles apparently registered a sudden depositional event with recent ²¹⁰Pb material, probably related to strong shifts in precipitation and drought cycles in that part of the world. These three examples show that ²¹⁰Pb profiles provide valuable information not only on geochronology, but also related to natural and anthropogenic short term processes, as shown here, but these are not always reported and well understood.     

剪切载荷扰动对断层摩擦影响的实验研究

利用双轴伺服控制加载装置,采用3块花岗闪长岩标本组成的含有2个滑动面的直剪结构,开展了摩擦滑动实验。实验中通过在剪切方向上叠加正弦波状的位移扰动,研究了剪应力扰动对断层粘滑失稳的影响。研究表明,在恒定的正应力和位移速率下,标本表现出较为规则的粘滑;当在剪切方向叠加位移扰动后,随扰动振幅的增加,粘滑发生时间与扰动的相关性增大,粘滑的应力降和时间间隔的分布趋于离散,其中扰动能产生明显影响的临界振幅大致为0.05MPa;粘滑应力降和时间间隔随扰动振幅增大而逐渐离散的现象在较高正应力下更为明显,而相同扰动振幅下粘滑失稳发生时间与扰动的相关性也随正应力增加而增大;扰动周期对摩擦性状的影响不明显。研究结果意味着,地震引起的同震剪应力的变化不仅会引起邻近断层上地震发生时间的变化,也可能引起地震强度的变化     

Observations of Antarctic precipitable water vapor and its response to the solar activity based on GPS sensing

Predicting global climate change is a great challenge and must be based on a thorough understanding of how the climate system components behave. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is one of the key components in determining and predicting the global climate system. It is well known that the local surface temperature and pressure have a direct influence on the production of PWV. However, the influence of solar activity on atmospheric dynamics and their physical mechanisms is still an open debate, where past studies are focused at mid-latitude regions. A new method of determining and quantifying the solar influence on PWV based on GPS observations to correlate the GPS PWV and total electron content (TEC) variations is proposed. Observed data from Scott Base (SBA) and McMurdo (MCM) stations from 2003 to 2005 have been used to study the response of PWV to solar activity. In the analysis, the effects of local conditions (wind speed and relative humidity) on the distribution of PWV are investigated. Results show significant correlation between PWV and solar activity for four geomagnetic storms, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.77, 0.64 and 0.69, which are all significant at the 95% confidence level. There was no significant correlation between TEC and PWV changes during the absence of storms. On a monthly analysis, a strong relationship exists between PWV and TEC during storm-affected days, with correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.89 (99% confidence level) for SBA and MCM respectively. These indicate a statistically significant seasonal signal in the Antarctic region, which is very active (higher) during the summer and inactive (lower) for the winter periods.     

Spatio-temporal variation of transition probability of bursting events over the ripples at the bed of open channel

In this study, the turbulent flow structure over the ripples at the bed of open channel was investigated experimentally. An analysis of bursting process was used to recognize the susceptible regions for sediment entrainment and deposition over the ripples. Two artificial ripples were built according to the ripples, formed by nature. Three different configurations of ripples were used by changing the wavelength. According to analysis of bursting event it was found that at the stoss side of ripples, quadrants (II) and (IV) were dominant to the quadrants (I) and (III) and at the lee side of the ripple it was vice versa. Also the transition probabilities of the bursting events were determined. The results showed that stable organizations of each class of the events had highest transition probabilities whereas cross organizations had lowest transition probabilities. Additionally, an effort was made to find the average inclination angle of the bursting events in quadrants (II) and (IV). The results showed that the mean angle of events in quadrants (II) and (IV) increases at the downstream of stoss side to the crest in each experimental test. Also, at the lee side where the sediment particles were deposited, the inclination angles had the highest values.     

Nannoplankton successions in the northern Red Sea during the last glaciation (60 to 14.5 ka BP): Reactions to climate change

Due to its restricted connection with the Indian Ocean, the desert-enclosed Red Sea is extremely sensitive to global sea level changes and thus ideally suited for paleoceanographic studies of what occurred during the last glaciation. The understanding of its glacial history is, however, still limited. A serious obstacle to obtain satisfactory paleoecological information has been the rarity of microfossil proxy species caused by high salinities. Here, we present a continuous and well-dated calcareous nannoplankton record from the northern Red Sea, covering the interval from 60–14.5 ka BP. Our investigation shows that the composition of the calcareous nannoplankton community varied between  32 ka BP and 14.5 ka BP in response to rapid environmental changes which are closely correlated to climatic fluctuations described from the North Atlantic region. Heinrich events H3, H2 and H1 are dominated by Emiliania huxleyi. Gephyrocapsa oceanica and especially Gephyrocapsa ericsonii are abundant between H3–H2 and H2–H1. A less pronounced response of the calcareous nannoplankton to the high latitudinal climatic oscillations is documented prior to  32 ka BP, suggesting that a strong atmospheric coupling between the northern Red Sea and the North Atlantic realm was established in the late Marine Isotope Stage 3. In contrast to the previously held view of a sea level related salinity increase as the major cause for changes of the plankton communities within the glacial Red Sea, we interpret the documented variations as being caused by local hydrographic changes under the atmospheric control from the extratropics. Temperature changes and especially variations of the water stratification appear to be critical selective factors for the calcareous nannoplankton composition.     

The impact of extreme weather events on the seagrass Zostera noltii and related Hydrobia ulvae population

Coastal areas are typically subjected to a range of stressors, but they now face the additional stressor of climate change, manifested in part by an increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Thus, the Mondego estuary (Portugal) has experienced organic enrichment (eutrophication) issues and these are potentially exacerbated by extreme weather events (floods, droughts and heat waves). In this paper, we explore the impact of interactions of these different stressors on the ecology of the system, specifically on the two key components, the seagrass Zostera noltii and the mud snail Hydrobia ulvae. Extreme events affected different components of the estuarine ecosystem (primary producers and macrofauna) differently. Whilst the floods directly impacted on H. ulvae, by wiping out part of its population, they did not directly affect the biomass of Z. noltii. In contrast, drought events, through their effects on salinity, directly impacted the biomass of Zostera, which had knock-on effects on the dynamics of H. ulvae. We conclude that over the period when the estuary experienced eutrophication, extreme weather events contributed to the overall degradation of the estuary, while during the recovery phase following the introduction of a management programme, those extreme weather episodes delayed the recovery process significantly.