Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.     

Models of passive margin inversion: implications for the Rhenohercynian fold-and-thrust belt, Belgium and Germany

Positive tectonic inversion is related to the transmission of compressional stresses along a décollement into the foreland of an orogenic zone. This stress and strain concentration in regions remote from the main orogenic front is commonly related to the presence of pre-existing rheological heterogeneities such as normal syn-depositional faults. During inversion, these pre-existing normal faults are reactivated as reverse faults. Tectonic inversion in the Rhenohercynian fold-and-thrust belt during the Variscan Orogeny shows that inversion is likely synchronous with the onset of collision in the hinterland. Here, we present the results of a simplified thermo-mechanical model (STM) which allows one to study strain partitioning between two orogenic zones. We show that, if the two orogenic zones have the same mechanical properties, the viscosity of the décollement, which links them, controls the initial strain partitioning. During subsequent finite shortening, erosional processes determine the partitioning of strain rate. The presence of a weak structure in the inverted zone and of a low-viscosity décollement leads to initial strain concentration in the inverted track rather than in the collision zone and a progressive decrease in strain partitioning between the two orogenic zones. The STM results are in good agreement with results of a 2D finite-element model. We conclude that, in the western part of the Rhenohercynian Massif, simultaneous uplift and deformation within the Mid-German Crystalline Rise (the main collision zone) and the Ardenne Anticlinorium (the inverted zone) lead to interpreting this orogenic event as a case of vice tectonic rather than the propagation of a ‘wave of folding’ towards the Variscan front, as suggested by previous authors.     

山西北部至晋冀蒙交界地区几次中强地震前4.0级地震活动的研究

对山西北部至晋冀蒙交界地区中强地震前的 4 .0级地震进行了研究 ,得出其特征为异常增强—异常平静—信号地震的结论 ,认为该区某些 4 .0级地震活动似可作为某些中强地震的前兆地震而进行进一步的研究。     

新疆宏观生态的空间分异与变化

根据新疆环境和生态特点，将新疆划分为14个二级生态区进行了研究。结果表明，新疆荒漠与非荒漠生态景观面积大致相当，但空间分异较大。新疆北部荒漠景观占全区域的约1／3，非荒漠景观占2／3，宏观生态相对稳定；新疆东部荒漠景观占全区域的2／3以上，宏观生态十分严峻；新疆南部荒漠景观占全区域的1／2，宏观生态稳定性差。沙漠、绿洲、水体三种主要景观类型中，北疆阿尔泰山南坡、伊犁盆地及南疆叶尔羌－喀什河三角洲地区沙漠化呈降低趋势；天山北坡各段及准噶尔盆地西部，20世纪90年代以来沙漠化明显减缓；新疆东部及南部其余各地区沙漠化均呈现增强趋势。新疆水体景观的变化表现为天然和人工水体面积的消长。近50年来，新疆修建的水库和坑塘等人工水体总面积与同期天然水体缩小的面积基本相当，表明新疆水体景观再近50年来的变化主要体现为水体的空间位移。绿洲景观的变化表明，北疆地区天然绿洲与人工绿洲面积的比例已经从50年代的5：1以上下降到约1：1，南疆由6：1以上下降到3：1左右。天然绿洲的减少是绿洲生态局部劣变的标志。研究还表明，新疆宏观生态的空间分异主要受自然因素的影响，其中，区域降水量的影响最为重要。     

青藏高原土壤水热分布特征及冻融过程在季节转换中的作用

利用GAME-Tibet期间所取得的高分辩率土壤温度和含水量资料，对青藏高原（主要是藏北高原）土壤水热分布特征及冻融过程在季节转换中的作用进行了分析。指出藏北高原4cm学深处土壤在10月份开始冻结，次年4-5月份开始消融，冻结持续时间长达5-7个月。冻结过程有利于土壤维持其水分，因此，在刚刚开始消融时土壤含水量仍然很高。从而为夏季风爆发前土壤通过蒸发向大气提供水分打下了基础。指出土壤冻融过程可能在高原季节转换中起着重要作用。     

资源环境与社会经济协调发展探析

文章首先回顾了资源环境与社会经济发展的理论，提出资源环境与社会经济协调发展内涵：一方面，要在资源环境承载力范围内发展社会经济，追求社会经济发展的最大化，另一方面，环境承载力是动态的，要依靠社会经济发展不断提高，这两个方面是相互作用、相互制约的。在此基础上，详细论述了资源环境与社会经济协调发展的内容,并从社会经济发展、资源环境管理等角度探讨了资源环境与社会经济协调发展的政策调控，通过建立节约型国民经济体系、深化资源环境管理，实现区域一体化，以保证资源环境与社会经济协调发展的实现。     

Some Aspects of Resource Uncertainty and Their Economic Consequences in Assessment of the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Natural Resources Research - Exploration ventures in frontier areas have high risks. Before committing to them, firms prepare regional resource assessments to evaluate the potential payoffs. With...     

Alpine medicinal plant trade and Himalayan mountain livelihood strategies

Commercial alpine medicinal plants are collected from the wild by local rural households throughout the Himalaya and sold in order to increase household incomes. Recent studies indicate that this annual trade amounts to thousands of tonnes of roots, rhizomes, tubers, leaves, etc., worth millions of US dollars. The main market is in India. Based on a national survey, including the most commonly traded species, and a village study this paper investigates the importance of the alpine medicinal plant trade at national and local levels in Nepal. The national survey included standardized open-ended interviews with 232 harvesters, 64 local traders, 66 central wholesalers, 47 regional wholesalers, and 16 production companies. The village survey is based on the daily records of household activities in 15 households in a one-year period. The annual Nepalese alpine and sub-alpine medicinal plant trade is conservatively estimated to vary from 480 to 2500 t with a total harvester value of US$0.8–3.3 million; the average harvester value is estimated at US$66.0 ± 99.0. The trade in 1997/98 amounted to 1600 t with a harvester value of US$2.3 million and an export value equivalent to 2.5% of total export from Nepal. Medicinal plant harvesting was found to constitute an integrated part of local livelihood strategies, contributing from 3 to 44% (average of 12%) of the annual household income. Importance at household level depended on land and animal holdings, and the availability of adult male labour. The validity and reliability of methods and analyses is evaluated, and issues of conservation and management of alpine medicinal plant species under the community forestry scheme are discussed.     

海拉尔盆地贝尔凹陷的油气运聚分析

海拉尔盆地贝尔凹陷是一个以白垩系沉积为主的陆相断陷区。采用条件分析法,对贝尔凹陷的油气运聚条件及其成藏的基本模式进行了系统研究,认为,贝尔凹陷在剖面上有3套成藏组合,其中中部成藏组合最佳;在平面上可分为5个运聚系统,其中以位于凹陷西北部的3个系统为最佳。该凹陷不同构造部位的运聚条件相差较大,生烃洼陷深部位的油气运移以砂岩储集层和断裂为主要输导通道,构造高部位的油气运移以断裂为主,而两者之间的油气输导则以不整合面和断裂为主。在油气运聚和成藏模式分析的基础上,认为贝尔凹陷油气运聚的有利条件主要包括生油凹陷有充足的油源、生油区内有继承性发育的圈闭构造以及各运聚要素间存在良好的时空配置关系3个方面。     

生命线地震工程的研究进展

以我国、美国和日本的研究成果为依据，综述了生命线地震工程的研究概况、研究对象、震后恢复过程优化以及抗震防灾对策的新趋势。