基于概率断裂力学的管道疲劳寿命分析

采用奇异单元模拟裂纹尖端应力场的奇异性,计算裂纹尖端的应力强度因子和张开应力.以概率论为基础,结合确定性疲劳断裂力学估算方法,考虑参数的不确定性和随机性,应用蒙特卡洛模拟法分析管道的疲劳寿命.结果表明：通过J积分计算得到的裂纹尖端张开应力与计算得到的管道工作应力基本相等.采用蒙特卡洛模拟法进行的一定可靠度和置信度下的疲劳寿命预测能反映评定参数的不确定性,较传统的断裂力学计算结果更安全.     

基于气象大数据的台风强度预测统计模型研究

台风是一种破坏力极强的灾害性天气系统,做好台风路径和强度预报是防灾减灾的关键。除了气候性因子、台风持续性因子以及环境背景场因子,文章还考虑了在近海时,受陆地影响下,台风强度演变的情况,引入了新变量,即海陆比。将2000—2014年西北太平洋的所有台风样本分成海盆样本和近海样本,研究它们在12、24、36和48小时间隔的强度演变规律。本研究利用1°×1°美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心提供的 FNL全球再分析资料(Final Operational Global Analysis)数据,采用逐步回归和主成分分析法的多元统计回归模型预测台风强度,并比较了两种模型在台风强度预测上的表现。综合深海盆和近海台风强度的预测结果可以看出,文章提供的近海台风强度预报方法,比国内外的其他研究更具有防台减灾的实际应用价值。     

Performance comparison of reduced models for leak detection in water distribution networks

This paper presents a methodology for comparing the performance of model-reduction strategies to be used with a diagnostic methodology for leak detection in water distribution networks. The goal is to find reduction strategies that are suitable for error-domain model falsification, a model based data interpretation methodology. Twelve reduction strategies are derived from five strategy categories. Categories differ according to the manner in which nodes are selected for deletion. A node is selected for deletion according to: (1) the diameter of the pipes; (2) the number of pipes linked to a node; (3) the angle of the pipes in the case of two-pipe nodes; (4) the distribution of the water demand; and, (5) a pair-wise combination of some categories.The methodology is illustrated using part of a real network. Performance is evaluated first by judging the equivalency of the reduced network with the initial network (before the application of any reduction procedure) and secondly, by assessing the compatibility with the diagnostic methodology. The results show that for each reduction strategy the equivalency of networks is verified. Computational time can be reduced to less than 20% of the non-reduced network in the best case. Results of diagnostic performance show that the performance decreases when using reduced networks. The reduction strategy with the best diagnostic performance is that based on the angle of two-pipe nodes, with an angle threshold of 165°. In addition, the sensitivity of the performance of the reduced networks to variation in leak intensity is evaluated. Results show that the reduction strategies where the number of nodes is significantly reduced are the most sensitive.Finally this paper describes a Pareto analysis that is used to select the reduction strategy that is a good compromise between reduction of computational time and performance of the diagnosis. In this context, the extension strategy is the most attractive.     

基于ELM的硫熏强度软测量模型

硫熏强度是亚法糖厂澄清工段的关键工艺参数之一;硫熏强度过低会影响澄清效果,过高会造成成品糖二氧化硫残留过高;目前由于缺乏合适的硫熏强度在线测量装置,该参数主要采用人工取样和离线化验的检测方式,化验滞后时间较长,难以根据该指标及时指导实际生产的问题;为此文章采用极限学习机(ELLM)方法建立了硫熏强度软测量模型,并与基于支持向量机(SVM)、径向基函数(RBF)神经网络和反向传播(BP)神经网络的硫熏强度软测量模型进行对比分析;结果显示,基于ELM的硫熏强度软测量模型具有训练收敛速度快、模型精度高和泛化性能好等优点,可以满足实际糖厂澄清工段的要求.     

Critical stress and load conditions for pitting calculations of involute spur and helical gear teeth

Calculation methods of spur and helical gear drives for preliminary designs or standardization purposes available in technical literature, use the Hertz equation to evaluate the contact stress, assuming the load to be uniformly distributed along the line of contact. However, this model presents some discrepancies with experimental results because the changing rigidity of the pair of teeth along the path of contact produces a non-uniform load distribution, which implies that some load distribution factors are required to compute the contact stress. In this paper, a non-uniform model of load distribution along the line of contact, recently developed, obtained from the minimum elastic potential criterion, has been used. This model combined with the Hertz equation yields more accurate values of the contact stress. As the load per unit of length at any point of the line of contact and any position of the meshing cycle has been described by a very simple analytic equation, a complete study of the location and value of the critical contact stress has been carried out. From this study, a recommendation for the calculation of the pitting load capacity of spur and helical gears is proposed.     

Development of a robot assisted carotid blood flow measurement system

The ultrasound diagnosis of the carotid artery is one of the most common non-invasive methods to detect early stage heart and cerebrovascular diseases. However, the precision and repetitiveness of the probe positioning depend exclusively on the operator's skills and dexterity. For this purpose, we propose the development of a robot assisted system to enhance the accuracy and repetitiveness of the probe positioning to measure the wave intensity (WI) index. In this paper, the Waseda-Tokyo Women's Medical-Aloka Blood Flow Measurement Robot System No. 2 Refined (WTA-2R) is presented. The WTA-2R consists of a conventional ultrasound diagnosis system, a 6-DOFs parallel link slave manipulator, a 6-DOFs serial link passive arm, and a master device. Experiments were carried out to verify its effectiveness in terms of accuracy and required time to perform the task. From the experimental results, the positioning accuracy and reduction of required time were confirmed.     

Cellular analysis by open-source software for affordable cytometry

Image cytometry is an important technique in affordable healthcare and cellular research. Some efforts toward establishing a personal, low-cost cytometer have been described in the literature. However, a self-assembled fluorescence microscope requires software for cytometric analysis. There are some open-source image-based software analysis applications available. However, for a quantitative analysis of images, software that can generate data comparable to those of previously evaluated cytometric analyses programs is required. Hence, the aim of this study is to compare results of a commercially available image cytometry program to data obtained using the open-source software CellProfiler (CP). Leukocytes and fluorescent bead images obtained using a Laser Scanning Cytometer were analyzed by CP and the results compared with those of conventional cytometric analyses' programs. Algorithms were developed enabling the analysis of leukocytes and beads by CP. CP provided similar results to those obtained by the cytometer software. Hallmark parameters, including cell count and fluorescence intensity, revealed a high correlation in the analysis of both programs. Therefore, CP is appropriate for cellular analysis on a self-assembled microscope, thereby enabling affordable cytometry.     

金安桥水电站大坝抗震分析和抗震措施设计

金安桥水电站大坝地震设防烈度高达9度,基岩场地设计水平动峰值加速度为0.399 g,大坝抗震分析和抗震措施设计是工程关键性技术问题之一。采用数值计算法和模型试验法对碾压混凝土大坝进行了全面的动力分析,确定了大坝的抗震薄弱部位,为金安桥水电站大坝设计提供了保证。     

不同暴雨等级下崇明岛除涝能力评估

为支持崇明生态岛建设,在现状崇明岛水利控制工程的基础上,研究选取不同等级暴雨雨型和不同特征潮型的组合对崇明岛除涝排水能力进行计算,对预降能力、暴雨期间最高水位以及暴雨后排水时间等参数进行分析,并根据研究结果提出不同等级暴雨预报情况下调整水闸引排模式、预降水位的建议。