On the predictability of crude oil market: A hybrid multiscale wavelet approach

Past research indicates that forecasting is important in understanding price dynamics across assets. We explore the potentiality of multiscale forecasting in the crude oil market by employing a wavelet multiscale analysis on returns and volatilities of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil indices between January 1, 2001, and May 1, 2015. The analysis is based on a shift-invariant discrete wavelet transform, augmented by an entropy-based methodology for determining the optimal timescale decomposition under different market regimes. The empirical results show that the five-step-ahead wavelet forecast that is based on volatilities outperforms the random walk forecast, relative to the wavelet forecast that is based on returns. Optimal wavelet causality forecasting for returns is suggested across all frequencies (i.e., daily–yearly), whereas for volatilities it is suggested only up to quarterly frequencies. These results may have important implications for market efficiency and predictability of prices on the crude oil markets.     

Precocene-induced metamorphosis in the desert locustSchistocerca gregaria

Summary 50–100% of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th instar nymphs ofSchistocerca gregaria exposed to precocene 2 by contact method metamorphosed precociously from the instar treated. The corpora allata of the precocious adults were degenerate. Topical application of a juvenile hormone analogue (ZR-512) induced in the precocious adults the colouration characteristic of sexually mature adults.This research was supported by the N.S.E.R.C. grant No.A4669.We thank Dr G. B. Staal, Zoecon Corporation, Palo Alto, California, for the generous gift of precocene 2 and ZR-512, M. Hota for rearing the insects, R. G. Long, for the photographs, and Jann Aitken for technical assistance.     

Different marrow cell number requirements for the haemopoietic colony formation and the cure of the W/Wv anemia

Summary The lowest cell number in the normal marrow transplant, which allows the cure of W/W^v anemia was found to be between 10⁴ and 10⁵. This exceeds by several times the lowest cell number necessary for the haemopoietic colony formation. Therefore, either the colony forming cell is not the haemopoietic stem cell but rather its progeny, or this cell requires an aid from some other cells to exert its activity.Acknowledgments. We are indebted to Doc. Dr Maksymilian Siekierzynski for his help and advice and to Miss Elzbieta Szewczyk for expert technical assistance.     

Neural Network Based Model for Predicting Housing Market Performance

The United States real estate market is currently facing its worst hit in two decades due to the slowdown of housing sales. The most affected by this decline are real estate investors and home developers who are currently struggling to break-even financially on their investments. For these investors, it is of utmost importance to evaluate the current status of the market and predict its performance over the shortterm in order to make appropriate financial decisions. This paper presents the development of artificial neural network based models to support real estate investors and home developers in this critical task. The paper describes the decision variables, design methodology, and the implementation of these models. The models utilize historical market performance data sets to train the artificial neural networks in order to predict unforeseen future performances. An application example is analyzed to demonstrate the model capabili-ties in analyzing and predicting the market performance. The model testing and validation showed that the error in prediction is in the range between -2% and +2%.     

太阳活动峰年和谷年期间黑子群与耀斑的统计分析

基于NOAA/SWPC公布的太阳活动数据,我们选取第24太阳活动峰年附近的12个连续月份(2011年7月至2012年6月)和第23太阳活动周谷年附近的12个连续月份(2005年7月至2006年6月),统计了这两段时间中太阳黑子群和耀斑的活动规律,并根据时间、黑子群分布纬度、寿命和磁场类型等对峰年和谷年进行了详细分析和比较,主要结论如下所述.(1)黑子群数随时间的变化在峰年和谷年均比较随机,峰年期间黑子数比谷年增多1.5倍左右.耀斑爆发与黑子群活动具有良好的相关性,但峰年期间存在某个月份耀斑数很少的现象,而谷年期间存在某个月份耀斑数集中增多的现象.(2)无论峰年还是谷年,δ类型黑子群的耀斑产率(耀斑总数与黑子群总数之比)最大,但β型黑子群产生的耀斑爆发最多.耀斑产率与磁场类型有密切关系,但与其所处太阳活动周中的阶段无关.(3)黑子群和耀斑的纬度分布的南北不对称性,以X级耀斑最为显著.峰年较谷年的耀斑数增加主要集中在C级和M级.(4)耀斑产率同黑子群寿命具有良好的相关性,但黑子群的数目同它们的寿命之间没有明显的规律.     

Phase analysis of AlFe2B2 by synchrotron X-ray diffraction, magnetic and Mössbauer studies

The structural and magnetic properties of essentially phase pure AlFe_2B_2 prepared by arc melting were compared with a sample containing impurities. Analysis was carried out by means of synchrotron X-ray diffraction, magnetic measurements and M?ssbauer spectroscopy. The analysis of synchrotron X-ray diffraction data confirmed the orthorhombic structure of space group Cmmm for AlFe_2B_2 with Al_(13)Fe_4 as main impurity phase. The magnetic measurements revealed an unsaturated ferromagnetic state in AlFe_2B_2 with a transition temperature(T_c) of 286 K. Isothermal magnetization measurment at 5 K gave a saturation magnetization of 0.7 μB per Fe atom while Arrott plots establish the second order nature of ferromagnetic transition. The thermal evolution of M?ssbauer spectra confirmed the ferromagnetic nature of this material revealing an hyperfine field of 73 kOe and an isomer shift of 0.46 mm/s at 100 K. The M?ssbauer spectra of a phase pure sample was compared with the one containing impurity phases. It is suggested that the low temperature paramagnetic contribution in M?ssbauer spectra of phase pure material may have its origin in some intrinsic phenomena arising from defects or inhomogeneities in crystal structure.     

Replacement of alkali silicate solution with silica fume in metakaolin-based geopolymers

A metakaolin(Mk)-based geopolymer cement from Tunisian Mk mixed with different amounts of silica fume(SiO_2/Al_2O_3 molar ratio varying between 3.61 and 4.09) and sodium hydroxide(10M) and without any alkali silicate solution, is developed in this work. After the samples were cured at room temperature under air for 28 d, they were analyzed by X-ray diffraction(XRD), Fourier transform infrared(FTIR) spectroscopy, environmental scanning electron microscopy, mercury intrusion porosimetry, ~(27)Al and ~(29)Si nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR) spectroscopy, and compression testing to establish the relationship between microstructure and compressive strength. The XRD, FTIR, and ~(27)Al and ~(29)Si NMR analyses showed that the use of silica fume instead of alkali silicate solutions was feasible for manufacturing geopolymer cement. The Mk-based geopolymer with a silica fume content of 6 wt%(compared with those with 2% and 10%), corresponding to an SiO_2/Al_2O_3 molar ratio of 3.84, resulted in the highest compressive strength, which was explained on the basis of its high compactness with the smallest porosity. Silica fume improved the compressive strength by filling interstitial voids of the microstructure because of its fine particle size. In addition, an increase in the SiO_2/Al_2O_3 molar ratio, which is controlled by the addition of silica fume, to 4.09 led to a geopolymer with low compressive strength, accompanied by microstructures with high porosity. This high porosity, which is responsible for weaknesses in the specimen, is related to the amount of unreacted silica fume.     

Genetic variation in selenoprotein S influences inflammatory response

Chronic inflammation has a pathological role in many common diseases and is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. Here we assess the role of genetic variation in selenoprotein S (SEPS1, also called SELS or SELENOS), a gene involved in stress response in the endoplasmic reticulum and inflammation control. After resequencing SEPS1, we genotyped 13 SNPs in 522 individuals from 92 families. As inflammation biomarkers, we measured plasma levels of IL-6, IL-1beta and TNF-alpha. Bayesian quantitative trait nucleotide analysis identified associations between SEPS1 polymorphisms and all three proinflammatory cytokines. One promoter variant, -105G --> A, showed strong evidence for an association with each cytokine (multivariate P = 0.0000002). Functional analysis of this polymorphism showed that the A variant significantly impaired SEPS1 expression after exposure to endoplasmic reticulum stress agents (P = 0.00006). Furthermore, suppression of SEPS1 by short interfering RNA in macrophage cells increased the release of IL-6 and TNF-alpha. To investigate further the significance of the observed associations, we genotyped -105G --> A in 419 Mexican American individuals from 23 families for replication. This analysis confirmed a significant association with both TNF-alpha (P = 0.0049) and IL-1beta (P = 0.0101). These results provide a direct mechanistic link between SEPS1 and the production of inflammatory cytokines and suggest that SEPS1 has a role in mediating inflammation.     

Enhanced urease inhibition activity of Ag nanomaterials capped with N-substituted methyl 5-acetamido-β-resorcylate

Medically, bacterial ureases are important virulent factors and are used for treatment of peptic ulcers and urinary tones. Reported urease inhibitors are associated with various side effects including antibiotic resistance as a major one. Still there is an urgent need to synthesize new urease inhibitors. In this context we have synthesized new urease inhibitor i.e. AgL that is composed of Ag nanomaterials capped with N-substituted methyl 5-acetamido-β-resorcylate(L). The conjugation of L to silver was confirmed through FTIR, UV–vis and TEM analysis.Bare silver nanomaterials(Ag) were also prepared. The stability of AgL nanostructures was determined against various parameters(temperature, high salt concentration, pH) and found to be stable. The in vitro antimicrobial(antibacterial, antifungal), enzyme inhibition(xanthine oxidase, urease, carbonic anhydrase, α-chymotrypsin,cholinesterase) and antioxidant activities of AgL were investigated and compared with Ag, L and standard drugs.In comparison to other bioactivities, AgL shows statistically enhanced selective enzyme inhibition activity against urease enzyme. Urease inhibition activity of AgL was significantly greater than standard drug(thiourea),L and Ag. On a per weight basis, AgL required about 11–18 times less amount of L for inhibition of urease enzyme.     

Different marrow cell number requirements for the haemopoietic colony formation and the curve of the W/Wv anemia.

The lowest cell number in the normal marrow transplant, which allows the cure of W/Wv anemia was found to be between 10(4) and 10(5). This exceeds by several times the lowest cell number necessary for the haemopoietic colony formation. Therefore, either the colony forming cell is not the haemopoietic stem cell but rather its progeny, or this cell requires an aid from some other cells to exert is activity.