Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.     

A multiple intelligent agent system for credit risk prediction via an optimization of localized generalization error with diversity

Company bankruptcies cost billions of dollars in losses to banks each year. Thus credit risk prediction is a critical part of a bank＇s loan approval decision process. Traditional financial models for credit risk prediction are no longer adequate for describing today＇s complex relationship between the financial health and potential bankruptcy of a company. In this work, a multiple classifier system （embedded in a multiple intelligent agent system） is proposed to predict the financial health of a company. In our model, each individual agent （classifier） makes a prediction on the likelihood of credit risk based on only partial information of the company. Each of the agents is an expert, but has limited knowledge （represented by features） about the company. The decisions of all agents are combined together to form a final credit risk prediction. Experiments show that our model out-performs other existing methods using the benchmarking Compustat American Corporations dataset.     

基于GIS的内蒙古中部区域洪水灾害风险评价

本文综合考虑自然以及社会的作用,从洪水危险性和社会易损性两个角度出发,选取地理高程、人口密度、人均GDP和历史灾情数据为指标,采用快易的叠加分析法对研究区(内蒙古中部)进行区域洪水灾害风险评价,实现了各种指标定性与定量的组合,得出研究区洪水灾害风险评价图.结果表明,研究区南部靠近黄河的河套平原地区,由于地势较为平缓、靠近河流、经济发达,洪水灾害风险较大.在研究区北部,由于经济不发达,人口较少,洪水灾害风险较小.与实际基本相符.     

Watching cartoons activates the medial prefrontal cortex in children

The medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) of human adults is involved in attributing mental states to real human agents but not to virtual artificial characters. This study examined whether such differential MPFC activity can be observed in children who are more fascinated by cartoons than adults. We measured brain activity using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while 10-year-old children watched movie and cartoon clips, simulating real and virtual visual worlds, respectively. We showed neuroimaging evidence that, in contrast to adults, the MPFC of children was activated when perceiving both human agents and artificial characters in coherent visual events. Our findings suggest that, around the age of 10 years, the MPFC activity in children is different from that in adults in that it can be spontaneously activated by non-human agents in a virtual visual world.     

基于CBR与RBR的交通事故责任认定系统研究

文章研究的系统运用辅助决策支持,在事故责任认定中将规则推理与案例推理结合,弥补各自的不足,充分发挥CBR和RBR各自优势,有效促进了事故的处理,从而实现交通事故责任认定工作的公开、公平、便民。     

矩形微细通道内流场的可视化实验研究

以蒸馏水为工质,水溶伊红为着色剂,对水力直径为419.2μm,相对粗糙度为3.86%的矩形不锈钢微槽内流动流态进行了可视化实验研究.经光学显微镜放大后由CCD相机拍摄,得到了不同Re数下矩形微槽内的流型图,同时测量了微槽内的摩擦阻力系数.可视化实验表明随Re数增大,出口段、中间段及入口段依次出现层流向湍流过渡,层流向湍流过渡是渐进的、连续的.摩擦阻力实验表明无论层流区还是过渡区,摩擦阻力系数均高于传统理论预测值,由于转捩提前层流区摩擦阻力系数随Re数增大,与传统理论预测值偏差越大.可视化实验与摩擦阻力实验均表明层流向湍流过渡的临界Re数在1 500左右.     

一步法合成甲基橙实验条件的优化

研究了常温下一步合成甲基橙的实验方法,优化条件为室温下pH=10时,反应搅拌时间25min.与低温法相比,减少了原料的消耗,降低了制备成本,低温方法制备甲基橙的产率为76.6%,常温一步法的产率为85.1%提高了产率.     

硫酸生产废水中除砷方法探讨

对硫酸生产中净化工序废水进行处理，根据其含砷量多少，介绍其处理方法、工艺流程及机理，经处理后的污水均可达到国家排放标准，并可取得良好的环境效益、经济效益和社会效益。     

Online uniform machine covering with the known largest size

This paper investigates the semi-online scheduling problem with the known largest size on two uniform machines. The objective is to maximize the minimum machine completion time. Both lower bounds and algorithms are given. Algorithms are optimal for the majority values of s≥1, where s is the speed ratio of the two machines. The largest gap between the competitive ratio and the lower bound is about 0.064. Moreover, the overall competitive ratio 2 matches the overall lower bound.     

岛屿地形对涡旋Rossby波传播影响的研究

首先在静止基本状态下,从线性f平面极坐标浅水方程出发,利用WKB方法求解方程,在理论上给出了一类由于地形βeff作用引起的Rosbby波的传播特征解,此类Rossby波类似于涡旋Rossby波(VRW),其中地形βeff作用与台风涡旋基态的垂直相对涡度径向梯度作用相似,此分析解可帮助理解地形对涡旋Rossby波的影响作用.在此基础上,利用一个高分辨率的浅水模式具体讨论了圆形、类似于台湾岛屿椭圆地形对VRW传播以及结构特征变化的影响.结果表明,地形对VRW的传播速度,台风内区的非对称结构的变化均构成影响.当台风位于地形东南一定距离处,与无地形相比,涡量向内向外传播均增强,扰动能量增大,涡量环绕地形中心沿等高线顺时针方向移动,局域风速增大,并形成尺度为几十公里左右的强局域风速区,平均风速减小.