X-ray observations of the edge-on star-forming galaxy NGC 891 and its supernova SN1986J

We present XMM–Newton observations of NGC 891, a nearby edge-on spiral galaxy. We analyse the extent of the diffuse emission emitted from the disc of the galaxy, and find that it has a single-temperature profile with best-fitting temperature of 0.26 keV, though the fit of a dual-temperature plasma with temperatures of 0.08 and 0.30 keV is also acceptable. There is a considerable amount of diffuse X-ray emission protruding from the disc in the north-west direction out to approximately 6 kpc. We analyse the point-source population using a Chandra observation, using a maximum-likelihood method to find that the slope of the cumulative luminosity function of point sources in the galaxy is  −0.77^+0.13_−0.1  . Using a sample of other local galaxies, we compare the X-ray and infrared properties of NGC 891 with those of 'normal' and starburst spiral galaxies, and conclude that NGC 891 is most likely a starburst galaxy in a quiescent state. We establish that the diffuse X-ray luminosity of spirals scales with the far-infrared luminosity as   L _X∝ L ^0.87±0.07_FIR  , except for extreme starbursts, and NGC 891 does not fall in the latter category. We study the supernova SN1986J in both XMM–Newton and Chandra observations, and find that the X-ray luminosity has been declining with time more steeply than expected  ( L _X∝ t ⁻³)  .     

Ocean acidification and photic‐zone anoxia at the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event: Insights from the Adriatic Carbonate Platform

Severe global climate change led to the deterioration of environmental conditions in the oceans during the Toarcian Stage of the Jurassic. Carbonate platforms of the Western Tethys Ocean exposed in Alpine Tethyan mountain ranges today offer insight into this period of environmental upheaval. In addition to informing understanding of climate change in deep time, the effect of ancient carbon cycle perturbations on carbonate platforms has important implications for anthropogenic climate change; the patterns of early Toarcian environmental deterioration are similar to those occurring in modern oceans. This study focuses on the record of the early Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (ca 183.1 Ma) in outcrops of the north‐west Adriatic Carbonate Platform in Slovenia. Amidst environmental deterioration, the north‐west Adriatic Platform abruptly transitioned from a healthy, shallow‐water environment with diverse metazoan ecosystems to a partially drowned setting with low diversity biota and diminished sedimentation. An organic carbon‐isotope excursion of ?2.2‰ reflects the massive injection of CO₂ into the ocean‐atmosphere system and marks the stratigraphic position of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. A prominent dissolution horizon and suppressed carbonate deposition on the platform are interpreted to reflect transient shoaling of the carbonate compensation depth to unprecedentedly shallow levels as the dramatic influx of CO₂ overwhelmed the ocean’s buffering capacity, causing ocean acidification. Trace metal geochemistry and palaeoecology highlight water column deoxygenation, including the development of photic‐zone anoxia, preceding and during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. Ocean acidification and reduced oxygen levels likely had a profoundly negative effect on carbonate‐producing biota and growth of the Adriatic Platform. These effects are consistent with the approximate doubling of the concentration of CO₂ in the ocean‐atmosphere system from pre‐event levels, which has previously been linked to a volcanic triggering mechanism. Mercury enrichments discovered in this study support a temporal and genetic link between volcanism, the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event and the carbonate crisis.     

Heterogeneous water storage and thermal regime of supraglacial ponds on debris‐covered glaciers

The water storage and energy transfer roles of supraglacial ponds are poorly constrained, yet they are thought to be important components of debris‐covered glacier ablation budgets. We used an unmanned surface vessel (USV) to collect sonar depth measurements for 24 ponds to derive the first empirical relationship between their area and volume applicable to the size distribution of ponds commonly encountered on debris‐covered glaciers. Additionally, we instrumented nine ponds with thermistors and three with pressure transducers, characterizing their thermal regime and capturing three pond drainage events. The deepest and most irregularly‐shaped ponds were those associated with ice cliffs, which were connected to the surface or englacial hydrology network (maximum depth = 45.6 m), whereas hydrologically‐isolated ponds without ice cliffs were both more circular and shallower (maximum depth = 9.9 m). The englacial drainage of three ponds had the potential to melt ~100 ± 20 × 10³ kg to ~470 ± 90 × 10³ kg of glacier ice owing to the large volumes of stored water. Our observations of seasonal pond growth and drainage with their associated calculations of stored thermal energy have implications for glacier ice flow, the progressive enlargement and sudden collapse of englacial conduits, and the location of glacier ablation hot‐spots where ponds and ice cliffs interact. Additionally, the evolutionary trajectory of these ponds controls large proglacial lake formation in deglaciating environments. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Grain-size sensitive deformation of a stretched conglomerate from Plymouth, Vermont

The finite strain of clasts (maximum aspect ratio varying from 2 to 40) in a deformed conglomerate from Dry Hill, Plymouth, Vermont, correlates inversely with the average grain size (300-150 μm) in the clast, suggesting that the operative deformation mechanism was grain-size sensitive. In a general way, the average quartz grain size appeared to be smaller in those clasts with higher volume of minerals other than quartz. Dislocation densities varied by as much as a factor of 10 from grain to grain within a clast, but the average dislocation density was relatively constant from clast to clast. If grain-size sensitivity of strength is accepted as a working hypothesis, other elements of the microstructure, such as grain flattening, grain morphology, and dislocation structure can be reconciled as happening either through a late, low strain, high stress pulse—if the current palaeostress indicators are correct to within a factor of 10 or as happening concurrently with the grain-size sensitive mechanism if the current palaeostress estimates are in error. The evidence from this study agrees with several previously published suggestions that grain-size sensitive deformation occurs in the crust for quartzose rocks with grain size of 100 to 300 μm at temperatures of 350 to 420°C.     

Quasi-periodic fluctuations in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas region in a coupled climate model

We report an analysis of the mechanisms responsible for interannual variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas in a control integration of the HadCM3 coupled climate model. Interannual variability in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) is dominated by a quasi-periodic ∼7-year signal. Analyses show that the mechanism involves a competition between convection and advection. Advection carries cold, fresh, Arctic water over warm, salty, Atlantic water, while convection periodically mixes these two water masses vertically, raising SST. Convection is able to raise SST because of the presence of a subsurface temperature maximum. The GIN Seas convection in HadCM3 is forced by wind stress anomalies related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The consequent SST anomalies feedback positively to force the atmosphere, resulting in a weak spectral peak (at ∼7 years) in GIN Seas sea level pressure. Although there is no evidence of a similar oscillation in reality, key aspects of the simulated mechanism may be relevant to understanding variability in the real GIN Seas. In particular, the potential for increases in convection to raise SST offers a possible new explanation for increases in SST that occurred between the 1960s and the late 1980s/early 1990s. These SST increases may have contributed to the observed sea-ice retreat. In addition, a positive feedback between GIN Seas SST and the atmosphere could contribute to the persistence of the NAO, potentially helping to explain its red spectrum or recent northeastward shift.

Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability

The predictability of ocean and climate variables is investigated, using a perfect model-based case study approach that recognises that predictability is dependent on the initial climate state. In line with previous studies, large scale ocean variables show predictability for several years or more; by contrast, the predictability of climate variables is generally limited to 2 years at most. That predictability shows high sensitivity to the initial state is demonstrated by predictable climate signals arising in different regions, variables and seasons for different initial conditions. The predictability of climate variables in the second year is of particular interest, because this is beyond the timescale that is usually considered to be the limit of seasonal predictability. For different initial conditions, second year predictability is found in: temperatures in southeastern North America (winter) and western Europe (winter and summer), and precipitation in India (summer monsoon) and in the tropical South Atlantic. Second year predictability arises either from persistence of large-scale sea surface temperature (SST) and related ocean heat content anomalies, particularly in regions such as the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean, or from mechanisms that involve El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics.     

揭开水星的秘密

1975年,“水手”10号太空船曾首次飞临并造访水星。此后,“信使”号太空船拍下了1213张水星的新图片。有关这颗太阳系最里面的行星,该太空飞行任务的首席研究员肖恩·所罗门（Sean Solomon）解释了其中几张独特的图片。     

Equifinality and uncertainty in physically based soil erosion models: application of the GLUE methodology to WEPP–the Water Erosion Prediction Project–for sites in the UK and USA

Despite the wealth of soil erosion models available for the prediction of both runoff and soil loss at a variety of scales, little quantification is made of uncertainty and error associated with model output. This in part reflects the need to produce unequivocal or optimal results for the end user, which will often be an unrealistic goal. This paper presents a conceptually simple methodology, Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), for assessing the degree of uncertainty surrounding output from a physically based soil erosion model, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). The ability not only to be explicit about model error but also to evaluate future improvements in parameter estimation, observed data or scientific understanding is demonstrated. This approach is applied to two sets of soil loss/runoff plot replicates, one in the UK and one in the USA. Although it is demonstrated that observations can be largely captured within uncertainty bounds, results indicate that these uncertainty bounds are often wide, reflecting the need to qualify results that derive from ‘optimum’ parameter sets, and to accept the concept of equifinality within soil erosion models. Attention is brought to the problem of under‐prediction of large events/over‐prediction of small events, as an area where model improvements could be made, specifically in the case of relatively dry years. Finally it is proposed that such a technique of model evaluation be employed more widely within the discipline so as to aid the interpretation and understanding of complex model output. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Last glacial aggradation and postglacial sediment production from the non-glacial Waipaoa and Waimata catchments, Hikurangi Margin, North Island, New Zealand

The sediment flux generated by postglacial channel incision has been calculated for the 2150 km², non-glacial, Waipaoa catchment located on the tectonically active Hikurangi Margin, eastern North Island, New Zealand. Sediment production both at a sub-catchment scale and for the Waipaoa catchment as a whole was calculated by first using the tensioned spline method within ARC MAP to create an approximation of the aggradational Waipaoa-1 surface (contemporaneous with the Last Glacial Maximum), and second using grid calculator functions in the GIS to subtract the modern day surface from the Waipaoa-1 surface. The Waipaoa-1 surface was mapped using stereo aerial photography, and global positioning technology fixed the position of individual terrace remnants in the landscape. The recent discovery of Kawakawa Tephra within Waipaoa-1 aggradation gravels in this catchment demonstrates that aggradation was coincidental with or began before the deposition of this 22 600 ¹⁴C-year-old tephra and, using the stratigraphic relationship of Rerewhakaaitu Tephra, the end of aggradation is dated at ca 15 000 ¹⁴C years (ca 18 000 cal. years BP). The construction of the Waipaoa-1 terrace is considered to be synchronous and broadly correlated with aggradation elsewhere in the North Island and northern South Island, indicating that aggradation ended at the same time over a wide area. Subsequent downcutting, a manifestation of base-level lowering following a switch to postglacial incision at the end of glacial-age aggradation, points to a significant Southern Hemisphere climatic warming occurring soon after ca 15 000 ¹⁴C years (ca 18 000 cal. years BP) during the Older Dryas interval. Elevation differences between the Waipaoa-1 (c.15 ka) terrace and the level of maximum channel incision (i.e. before aggradation since the turn of the 20th century) suggest about 50% of the topographic relief within headwater reaches of the Waipaoa catchment has been formed in postglacial times. The postglacial sediment flux generated by channel incision from Waipaoa catchment is of the order of 9.5 km³, of which ~ 6.6 km³ is stored within the confines of the Poverty Bay floodplain. Thus, although the postglacial period represented a time of high terrigenous sediment generation and delivery, only ~ 30% of the sediment generated by channel incision from Waipaoa catchment probably reached the marine shelf and slope of the Hikurangi Margin during this time. The smaller adjacent Waimata catchment probably contributed an additional 2.6 km³ to the same depocentre to give a total postglacial sediment contribution to the shelf and beyond of ~ 5.5 km³. Sediment generated by postglacial channel incision represents only ~ 25% of the total sediment yield from this landscape with ~ 75% of the estimated volume of the postglacial storage offshore probably derived from hillslope erosion processes following base-level fall at times when sediment yield from these catchments exceeded storage.