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现代地裂缝在世界许多国家普遍存在 ,已成为当今世界范围内的主要地质灾害之一。本文在详尽分析了山西榆次地裂缝的各个致灾因子的基础上 ,利用GIS技术建立了地质学意义上的专题层 ;然后采用人工神经网络技术构建出了地裂缝灾害活动性的评价模型 ,并建立了地裂缝活动性的评价系统 ,对榆次地裂缝进行了灾害活动性评价 ,为榆次市城建和国土规划等部门的正确决策提供了重要的科学依据 相似文献
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河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色-随机风险率概念,建立了水质超标灰色-随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中,将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布,将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率,即水质超标灰色-随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中,河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统,而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证,也即表明水体综合评价超标,最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。 相似文献
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The Vincent Thomas Bridge in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, is a critical artery for commercial traffic flow in and out of the Los Angeles Harbor, and is at risk in the seismically active Southern California region, particularly because it straddles the Palos Verdes fault zone. A combination of linear and non‐linear system identification techniques is employed to obtain a complete reduced‐order, multi‐input–multi‐output (MIMO) dynamic model of the Vincent Thomas Bridge based on the dynamic response of the structure to the 1987 Whittier and 1994 Northridge earthquakes. Starting with the available acceleration measurements (which consists of 15 accelerometers on the bridge structure and 10 accelerometers at various locations on its base), an efficient least‐squares‐based time‐domain identification procedure is applied to the data set to develop a reduced‐order, equivalent linear, multi‐degree‐of‐freedom model. Although not the main focus of this study, the linear system identification method is also combined with a non‐parametric identification technique, to generate a reduced‐order non‐linear mathematical model suitable for use in subsequent studies to predict, with good fidelity, the total response of the bridge under arbitrary dynamic environments. Results of this study yield measurements of the equivalent linear modal properties (frequencies, mode shapes and non‐proportional damping) as well as quantitative measures of the extent and nature of non‐linear interaction forces arising from strong ground shaking. It is shown that, for the particular subset of observations used in the identification procedure, the apparent non‐linearities in the system restoring forces are quite significant, and they contribute substantially to the improved fidelity of the model. Also shown is the potential of the identification technique under discussion to detect slight changes in the structure's influence coefficients, which may be indicators of damage and degradation in the structure being monitored. Difficulties associated with accurately estimating damping for lightly damped long‐span structures from their earthquake response are discussed. The technical issues raised in this paper indicate the need for added spatial resolution in sensor instrumentation to obtain identified mathematical models of structural systems with the broadest range of validity. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in Suzhou City,China 总被引:10,自引:2,他引:10
Suzhou City, located at the lower reaches of the Yangtze River in southeastern Jiangsu Province, is one of the few cities
in China which suffer from severe ground settlement. A research project was carried out to investigate this problem. Geological
and hydrogeological studies show that there is a multi-layered aquifer system with three distinct, soft mud layers of marine
and lagoonal origins. An examination of historical records of groundwater extraction, water levels, and ground settlement
shows that the ground subsidence is associated with the continuously increasing groundwater extraction in the deep, confined
aquifer. It is believed that the consolidation of the soft mud layers, especially the third layer which is thick and close
to the main pumped aquifer, contributes to the ground settlement. A three-dimensional finite difference numerical model representing
the multi-layered aquifer system was developed to study the ground settlement in response to groundwater extraction. By calibrating
the model with both the measured groundwater level and ground settlement, the aquifer parameters were estimated. The model
outputs fit reasonably well with the observed results, which indicates that the numerical model can reproduce the dynamic
processes of both groundwater flow and soil consolidation. The hydraulic conductivity of the third mud layer near the center
of the ground settlement has been reduced by over 30% in the last 14 years. The gradual deterioration in the hydraulic conductivity
of the mud may have significant adverse effect on the sustainable groundwater resource of the deep confined aquifer, since
the recharge from the shallow aquifers through the mud layer is the only source of water to the deep aquifer. An analysis
of the spatial distributions of groundwater drawdown and ground settlement shows that the area with maximum drawdown is not
necessarily the area with maximum ground settlement due to the occurrence of the soft mud layer. A simple reallocation in
pumping rates on the basis of the spatial distribution of the thick mud layer could significantly reduce the ground settlement.
Electronic Publication 相似文献