A simulation study to examine the sensitivity of the Pettitt test to detect abrupt changes in mean

Abstract

The Pettitt test is a non-parametric test that has been used in a number of hydroclimatological studies to detect abrupt changes in the mean of the distribution of the variable of interest. This test is based on the Mann-Whitney two-sample test (rank-based test), and allows the detection of a single shift at an unknown point in time. This test is often used to detect shifts in extremes because of the lack of distributional assumptions. However, the downside of not specifying a distribution is that the Pettitt test may be inefficient in detecting breaks when dealing with extremes. Here we adopt a Monte Carlo approach to examine the sensitivity of the Pettitt test in detecting shifts in the mean under different conditions (location of the break within the series, magnitude of the shift, record length, level of variability in the data, extreme vs non-extreme records, and pre-assigned significance level). These simulation results show that the sensitivity of this test in detecting abrupt changes increases with the increase in the magnitude of the shift and record length. The number of detections is higher when the time series represents the central part of the distribution (e.g. changes in the time series of medians), while the skill decreases as we move toward either low or high extremes (e.g. changes in the time series of maxima). Furthermore, the number of detections decreases as the variability in the data increases. Finally, abrupt changes are more easily detected when they occur toward the center of the time series.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor K. Hamed     

Multiple Classifier Systems for Hyperspectral Remote Sensing Data Classification

One of the most widely used outputs of remote sensing technology is Hyperspectral image. This large amount of information can increase classification accuracy. But at the same time, conventional classification techniques are facing the problem of statistical estimation in high-dimensional space. Recently in remote sensing, support vector machines (SVMs) have shown very suitable performance in classifying high dimensionality problem. Another strategy that has recently been used in remote sensing is multiple classifier system (MCS). It can also improve classification accuracy by combining different classifier methods or by a diversity of the same classifier. This paper aims to classify a Hyperspectral data using the most common methods of multiple classifier systems i.e. adaboost and bagging and a MCS based on SVM. The data used in the paper is an AVIRIS data with 224 spectral bands. The final results show the high capability of SVMs and MCSs in classifying high dimensionality data.     

Investigating the capability of deformation rate analysis method in stress estimation: a case study of water conveyance tunnel of Gotvand Dam

Knowledge of the magnitude and orientation of the initial in situ stress of rock mass in underground spaces in mining, construction, and oil projects are so vital; hence, putting it aside could not only cost a lot rather incur some irrecoverable damage. Various methods are available to estimate in situ stress in rock mass. However, the most commonly used one, i.e., hydraulic fracturing (HF) method is considered expensive and time consuming. As a matter of fact, laboratory methods based on drilled “core” have become prevalent these days considering them simple, cheap, and quick. Taking into account one such procedure, i.e., deformation rate analysis (DRA), the current research tries to review the DRA capability in determining the magnitude of initial in situ stress is in different parts of stress–strain curve. Further, an investigation was made about the usage of DRA method for both brittle and ductile rocks. To compare the DRA and hydraulic fracturing methods in in situ stress measurement, the water conveyance tunnel of Gotvand Dam was selected as a case study. The DRA tests were conducted on core samples prepared from blocks of tuff (as brittle) and soft sandstones (as ductile) from shallow quarry. The results show that the DRA method is suitable for all types of intact rock and that this could easily estimate in situ stress values. A comparison between in situ stress values obtained by DRA and those of HF method show the feasibility of geotechnical project, simplicity, speed, and low cost.     

The middle Eocene high-K magmatism in Eastern Iran Magmatic Belt: constraints from U-Pb zircon geochronology and Sr-Nd isotopic ratios

ABSTRACT

Intrusive rocks are well-exposed in the south Birjand around the Koudakan is herein compared to previously studied outcrops along the middle Eocene to late Oligocene Eastern Iran Magmatic Belt. This pluton is composed mainly of monzonite, quartz-monzonite, and granite with high-K calc-alkaline to shoshonitic affinities. The U-Pb zircon geochronology from monzonite and quartz-monzonite reveals the crystallization ages of 40.96 ± 0.48 to 38.78 ± 0.78 Ma (Bartonian). The monzonite, quartz-monzonite, and granite rocks show similar REEs and trace element patterns, as well as limited variations in εNd_(i) and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) ratio, suggesting that they are a comagmatic intrusive suite. The chondrite and primitive mantle normalized rare earth and trace element patterns show enrichment in the light rare earth elements, K, Rb, Cs, Pb, Th, and U and depletion in heavy rare earth elements, Nb, Zr, and Ti. The εNd_(i) and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) values range from +1.32 to +1.68 and 0.7044 to 0.7047, respectively, identical to island-arc basalt composition. The whole-rock Nd model age (T_DM) for the intrusive rocks range between 0.69 and 0.73 Ga. These geochemical and isotopic signatures indicate a subduction-related sub-continental lithospheric mantle source for these rocks. Our new geochemical, isotopic, and geochronological studies integrated with previously published data indicate that the middle Eocene to late Oligocene magmatism in eastern Iran was formed in a post-collisional tectonic environment. We suggest the northeastward subduction of the Neo-Tethys ocean beneath the Lut block and the eastward subduction of the Sistan ocean beneath the Afghan block caused mantle wedge to be metasomatized by slab components. At a later stage, a collision between the Lut and Afghan blocks was accompanied by the lithospheric delamination, and the subsequent asthenospheric upwelling led to the melting of the metasomatized sub-continental lithospheric mantle and the generation of middle Eocene to late Oligocene magmatism in the Eastern Iran Magmatic Belt.     

A step beyond susceptibility: an adaptation of risk framework for monetary risk estimation of gully erosion

Natural Hazards - In an effort to improve the previous gully susceptibility assessments in Iran, we attempted to conglomerate the notions of susceptibility, vulnerability, and exposure associated...     

Unified bounding surface model for monotonic and cyclic behaviour of clay and sand

Acta Geotechnica - This paper presents a constitutive model enabled to simulate monotonic and cyclic behaviour of clay and sand in a unified framework. The bounding surface concept has been...     

Lithofacies attributes, depositional system and diagenetic properties of the Permian Gharif Formation from Haushi–Huqf area, Central Oman

Over 70 m thick interbedded sandstone, siltstone and claystone of the upper member of the Gharif Formation are exposed in western Huqf area in Oman Interior Sedimentary Basin. The Gharif Formation, particularly its upper member hosts major hydrocarbon reservoir in the subsurface of the Oman Interior Sedimentary Basin. The upper member of the Gharif Formation is comprised of interbedded thick sandstone, siltstone, carbonaceous clays and intraformational conglomerates. The sandstone lithofacies, on average, constitute 10 m thick multistoreyed sequences, which are composed internally of 2–3 m thick and 100 s of metres across vertically and laterally amalgamated sandstone bodies. Two major types of sandstones (types 1 and 2) are identified on the basis of their lithofacies association and internal architecture. The type 1 sandstone constitutes the lower part of the member and is comprised of pebbly to coarse-grained, planar and trough cross-bedded sandstone, plane bedded sandstone and pebble lags at the base of major sandstone bodies. The cross-beds are, on average, 30 cm thick exhibiting a dominant paleoflow direction towards NW (280–300° N). It is interpreted to be deposited by low sinuosity braided streams. The type 2 sandstone constitutes the upper part of the member and is comprised of medium-grained sandstone, trough to low angle plane bedding associated with lateral accretion surfaces. It is commonly interbedded with carbonaceous clays. Silicified plant fragments are commonly distributed in the upper part of the sandstone. Interbedded clays and siltstones are red, mottled and extensively bioturbated due to root burrows. It is interpreted to be deposited by high sinuosity meandering streams. In the uppermost part of the section, several dark grey to black carbonaceous clay/coal beds with plant matter are interbedded with sandstone and red clay indicating development of swampy conditions during onset of the coastal setting in the uppermost part of the formation. About 30 cm thick bioclastic sandstone deposited by the marine coastal bars mark transition from the Gharif Formation to carbonate dominated Khuff Formation. The sandstone of the Gharif Formation is arkosic in composition. Very small amount of cement and negligible compaction of constituent grains in sandstone indicates shallow burial before uplift.     

Strength and Compressibility Characteristics of a Soft Clay Subjected to Ground Treatment

The compressibility properties, undrained shear strength, and stress history are essential for reliable calculations of settlement and bearing capacity of soft soils. However, it is sometimes a challenge to determine representative parameters for very soft and high plasticity clays, which are often found in Brazilian coastal areas. In this study an extensive site investigation was planned aiming to interpret the behaviour of a trial embankment on stabilized soft ground. The site investigation was carried out in a test area located in the west of city of Rio de Janeiro, consisted of three clusters in which standard penetration tests, vane shear tests, and piezocone tests (CPTu) were performed. A number of correlations was developed and compared with empirical equations in order to verify their reliability. The results of these tests made it possible to define geotechnical parameters of the soft clay to use in the numerical and analytical computations of the embankment on reinforced ground.