Landslide Susceptibility Mapping along Bhalubang–Shiwapur Area of Mid-Western Nepal Using Frequency Ratio and Conditional Probability Models

Roads constructed in fragile Siwaliks are prone to large number of instabilities. Bhalubang–Shiwapur section of Mahendra Highway lying in Western Nepal is one of them. To understand the landslide causative factor and to predict future occurrence of the landslides, landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) of this region was carried out using frequency ratio(FR) and weights-of-evidence(W of E) models. These models are easy to apply and give good results. For this, landslide inventory map of the area was prepared based on the aerial photo interpretation, from previously published/unpublished reposts, and detailed field survey using GPS. About 332 landslides were identified and mapped, among which 226(70%) were randomly selected for model training and the remaining 106(30%) were used for validation purpose. A spatial database was constructed from topographic, geological, and land cover maps. The reclassified maps based on the weight values of frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence were applied to get final susceptibility maps. The resultant landslide susceptibility maps were verified andcompared with the training data, as well as with the validation data. From the analysis, it is seen that both the models were equally capable of predicting landslide susceptibility of the region(W of E model(success rate = 83.39%, prediction rate = 79.59%); FR model(success rate = 83.31%, prediction rate = 78.58%)). In addition, it was observed that the distance from highway and lithology, followed by distance from drainage, slope curvature, and slope gradient played major role in the formation of landsides. The landslide susceptibility maps thus produced can serve as basic tools for planners and engineers to carry out further development works in this landslide prone area.     

Field evidence of Quaternary seismites in the Mostaganem-Relizane (western Algeria) region: seismotectonic implication

Northwestern Algeria, Tell Atlas chain, belongs to the converging Africa-Eurasia plate boundary. Several active faults have been previously identified and several earthquakes occurred in the past. In the present study, seismites are observed in the Quaternary deposits. The identified seismites include injection sand dykes, pillar structures, pillow structures, load-cast structures, water escape structures, sismoslumps, thixotropic wedges, and thixotropic bowls. The following arguments support their seismic origin: (i) presence of active faults able of producing strong earthquakes, (ii) the granulometric characteristics of the deposits are favorable to liquefaction, (iii) the observed features, mainly those related to water escape structures, are comparable to those observed in modern earthquakes. Therefore, such features are evidence of the occurrence of earthquakes of M?>?5.5 magnitude in this study area, which may occur in the future.     

Analytical solution of polymer slug injection with viscous fingering

We present an analytical solution to estimate the minimum polymer slug size needed to ensure that viscous fingering of chase water does not cause its breakdown during secondary oil recovery. Polymer flooding is typically used to improve oil recovery from more viscous oil reservoirs. The polymer is injected as a slug followed by chase water to reduce costs; however, the water is less viscous than the oil. This can result in miscible viscous fingering of the water into the polymer, breaking down the slug and reducing recovery. The solution assumes that the average effect of fingering can be represented by the empirical Todd and Longstaff model. The analytical calculation of minimum slug size is compared against numerical solutions using the Todd and Longstaff model as well as high resolution first contact miscible simulation of the fingering. The ability to rapidly determine the minimum polymer slug size is potentially very useful during enhanced oil recovery (EOR) screening studies.     

博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖水位变化特征及预测对比

根据1961—2012年湖泊水位观测资料,采用时间序列线性趋势分析与小波分析法,对比研究了博斯腾湖与伊塞克湖近50多年来水位变化特征,并对湖泊未来水位变化趋势进行预测。结果显示:(1)1961—2012年,博斯腾湖和伊塞克湖年水位总体呈显著的下降趋势。20世纪80年代中期之前,两湖水位变化趋势基本一致,都平稳下降;90年代后,博斯腾湖水位变化波动比伊塞克湖更为频繁,经历了迅速上升和下降的阶段,而伊塞克湖年水位较为稳定。(2)水位小波分析结果表明,博斯腾湖和伊塞克湖年水位变化分别存在18a和22a的主周期,从水位未来变化趋势预测结果来看,博斯腾湖水位将来一段时间继续下降,伊塞克湖水位则继续上升。     

胡杨和灰杨的叶绿素荧光参数及茎水势对塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地生境的响应

通过测定胡杨（Populus euphratica）、灰杨（Populus pruinosa）叶绿素荧光参数和茎水势,研究了二者成龄叶片样本的电子传递和光能的吸收、分配和耗散对塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地生境的适应特征。结果表明,无论清晨弱光下还是正午强光下,胡杨茎水势均比灰杨低,胡杨具有更强的吸水能力;在光合有效辐射不十分高的晴天内,胡杨的光系统Ⅱ的电子传递速率ETR对时间的积分面积大于灰杨,表明胡杨的日能量积累量大于灰杨;胡杨的非光化学淬灭系数NPQ呈单峰状,灰杨呈双峰态,正午的光合有效辐射对灰杨造成了一定程度的光抑制;午后14时（光合有效辐射最大,PAR=1216 μmo·m-2·s-1）,胡杨Y(NO)∶Y(NPQ)∶Y(Ⅱ)=18%∶50%∶32%,主动耗散能量的比例占到50%,表现了极强的抗性,而灰杨3者比例为Y(NO)∶Y(NPQ)∶Y(Ⅱ)=16%∶19%∶65%,通过提高主动散热（NPQ机制）比例,胡杨较灰杨具有更强的强光适应能力。胡杨与灰杨皆可通过提高激发能热耗散比例适应较高光合有效辐射,但胡杨较灰杨具有更强的调节能力和抗性。