中国近期主要农业自然灾害的时空变化分析(英文)

China is a disaster prone country, and a comprehensive understanding of change of disasters is very important for China’s agricultural development. In this study, statistical techniques and geographic information system tools are employed to quantify the main agriculture disasters changes and effects on grain production in China during the period of 1990–2011. The results show that China’s grain production was severely affected by disasters including drought, flood, hail, frost and typhoon. The annual area covered by these disasters reached up to 48.7×106 ha during the study period, which accounted for 44.8% of the total sown area, and about 55.1% of the per unit area grain yield change was caused by disasters. In addition, all of the disasters showed high variability, different changing trends, and spatial distribution. Drought, flood, and hail showed significantly decreasing trends, while frost and typhoon showed increasing trends. Drought and flood showed gradual changes and were distributed across the country, and disasters became more diversified from north to south. Drought was the dominated disaster type in northern China, while flood was the most important disaster type in the southern part. Hail was mainly observed in central and northern China, and frost was mainly distributed in southern China. Typhoon was greatly limited to the southeast coast. Furthermore, the resilience of grain production of each province was quite different, especially in several major grain producing areas, such as Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin and Jiangsu, where grain production was seriously affected by disasters. One reason for the difference of resilience of grain production was that grain production was marginalized in developed provinces when the economy underwent rapid development. For China’s agricultural development and grain security, we suggest that governments should place more emphasis on grain production, and invest more money in disaster prevention and mitigation, especially in the major grain producing provinces.     

近300年中国耕地开垦导致的碳排放估算

科学评估人类活动引起的土地利用/土地覆被变化所导致的陆地生态系统碳收支,将有助于降低陆地生态系统碳排放估算的不确定性.文章基于历史自然植被和耕地数据集建立不同生态系统的开垦速率,设定碳密度和响应曲线参数后,利用簿记模型估算近300年来中国耕地开垦导致的碳排放量.主要结论如下:(1)过去300年中国耕地累积增加约7.93×10~5km~2,开垦的耕地主要来源于森林(65%)和草地(26%);(2)近300年中国耕地开垦活动导致的碳排放总量介于2.94～5.61Pg,适中值为3.78Pg;(3)不同生态系统的碳排放差异较大,森林开垦导致的碳排放最大,草地和沼泽次之,灌丛的碳排放量最少,荒漠生态系统在开垦过程中表现为碳汇;(4)过去300年耕地开垦的碳排放总量,在年际间呈两头高中间低的U字型格局,在省际间表现为东北和西南地区的碳排放总量较大,而新疆、西藏、青海碳排放总量相对较少.     

2014—2019年中国秸秆焚烧火点的地理特征分析

客观、精细地刻画秸秆火点的地理空间分布特征,对科学引导作物秸秆焚烧和提高行政监管效率具有重要意义。基于2014—2019年中国区域内Satsee-Fire火点数据集和地形、社会经济数据建立的中国秸秆火点数据库和自然-人口-经济数据库,本研究采用GIS分析工具和数理统计方法,剖析了中国秸秆火点在地形、公共交通和人口-经济三方面7个因子之下的空间格局特征,结果表明：① 秸秆焚烧现象集中发生在高程低于250 m、坡度低于8°的区域,而位于北向坡和南向坡的秸秆火点数分别占总数的42.65%、37.36%。② 秸秆焚烧现象在机场和铁路禁燃区内呈不同的空间格局特征。距机场愈远秸秆焚烧行为愈普遍,机场禁燃区的秸秆焚烧有近六成发生在距机场11~15 km处;而铁路禁燃区内的秸秆火点分布较为均衡,总体呈内部圈层较外部区域略微密集态势,空间上火点密度整体随纬度增加而逐步增加,山西、内蒙古、河北及东三省铁路禁燃区火点数占总数的76.88%。③ 近七成的秸秆火点发生在人口密度低于250人/km2的县域,而58.17%的秸秆火点发生在年GDP低于100亿元的县域;秸秆焚烧现象与县域人口密度、GDP水平存在负相关关系,即县域人口密度愈大、县域经济愈发达,发生秸秆焚烧的现象愈为鲜见。