鄱阳湖流域1955-2002年径流系数变化趋势及其与气候因子的关系

近些年来,由于人类活动的影响,湖泊普遍出现了萎缩、水位下降、水量锐减、水质污染等问题,研究湖泊最低生态水位,确保湖泊所必须的最小水量,对于解决我国湖泊生态退化问题具有重要意义.本文提出综合指标法来计算湖泊最低生态水位.根据博斯腾湖具体情况选取天然水位资料、湖泊形态和芦苇3种指标为依据分别计算博斯腾湖的最低生态水位,计算结果分别为1047.06 m,1047.41 m和1047.20 m,然后通过综合分析以上这3种指标所占权重,进行加权计算,最终确定博斯腾湖最低生态水位为1047.16 m,通过分析表明1047.16 m作为博斯腾湖最低生态水位是合理的,综合指标法作为湖泊最低生态水位的计算方法切实可行.     

全球增暖背景下2050年前长江流域气候趋势预估

根据ECHAM5/ MPI-OM模式对长江流域21世纪前半叶气候变化的预估数据,分析了全流域、上游地区和中下游地区未来气候变化趋势。结果表明,长江流域气温将持续升高,尤其7-8月升温趋势明显,年平均温度升高最大幅度为2.60℃;全流域7月降水将增加,8月降水有减少趋势,未来夏季降水更加集中,不仅会增加洪涝灾害的发生机率,也有可能导致旱灾的发生。     

中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究

This paper tests the idea of substituting the atmospheric observations with atmospheric reanalysis when setting up a coupled data assimilation system.The paper focuses on the quantification of the effects on the oceanic analysis resulted from this substitution and designs four different assimilation schemes for such a substitution.A coupled Lorenz96 system is constructed and an ensemble Kalman filter is adopted.The atmospheric reanalysis and oceanic observations are assimilated into the system and the analysis quality is compared to a benchmark experiment where both atmospheric and oceanic observations are assimilated.Four schemes are designed for assimilating the reanalysis and they differ in the generation of the perturbed observation ensemble and the representation of the error covariance matrix.The results show that when the reanalysis is assimilated directly as independent observations,the root-mean-square error increase of oceanic analysis relative to the benchmark is less than 16%in the perfect model framework;in the biased model case,the increase is less than 22%.This result is robust with sufficient ensemble size and reasonable atmospheric observation quality(e.g.,frequency,noisiness,and density).If the observation is overly noisy,infrequent,sparse,or the ensemble size is insufficiently small,the analysis deterioration caused by the substitution is less severe since the analysis quality of the benchmark also deteriorates significantly due to worse observations and undersampling.The results from different assimilation schemes highlight the importance of two factors:accurate representation of the error covariance of the reanalysis and the temporal coherence along each ensemble member,which are crucial for the analysis quality of the substitution experiment.     

洛阳地区非饱和土强度试验研究

在改进的非饱和三轴仪上针对洛阳地区非饱和土开展强度试验研究,结果表明:粘聚力趋势角相对内摩擦角有更高的变化率、更大的变化范围,似粘聚力和随着饱和度的降低而快速增长。全面地考虑土中力学因素及土体结构影响的强度、变形理论研究是目前非饱和土土力学理论研究领域中的难点,对此用饱和度作控制变量建立了基于饱和度的非饱和土广义双变量强度理论,研究表明这一与以往理论建立思想有所不同的尝试对考虑土中力学因素、土体结构性的影响是有效的。     

长江中游马口-田家镇河段40年来河道演变

Quantitative analysis was performed on the filling-scouring process for the river reach within Makou and Tianjiazhen, the middle Yangtze River with the help of GIS and DEM techniques. The research results indicate that the river reach between Makou and Tianjiazhen was dominated by the scouring process, and the magnitude of scouring is increasing over time. The intensity of scouring process is more in the deep and narrower river reach than shallower and wider ones. The river reach in the Makou and Tianjiazhen river knot is in fre-quent scouring and filling process, however the river reach upper to the Makou and lower to the Tianjiazhen river knot is in moderate scouring and filling process. The river reach just upstream or downstream to the river knot (e.g. Makou and Tianjiazhen river knot in this research) is dominated by filling process and the river reach in the river knot is dominated by the scouring process. Research results indicate no changes in the boundary of the river but the scouring and the filling magnitude in specific river channel is strong. The filling and the scouring process of the study river reach is greatly impacted by the sediments and water from the upstream of the study river reach. The construction of the Three Gorges Dam just upstream to Yichang will cause further decrease of the release of the sediment load to the middle and the lower Yangtze River basin, which will further intensify the scouring process of the river channel in the study river reach.     

滑坡临滑预报的态矢量方法研究

态矢量是统计物理学中对连续场进行粗粒化描述的一种方法。将其引入滑坡预报中,通过将滑坡危险区划分为n个子区域,在各个时间窗内对一系列子区域的监测数据进行态矢量分析,将监测数据与降雨量态矢量的模等归一化后叠加,研究一段时间内滑坡位移态矢量的发展变化规律,并提出利用态矢量进行滑坡预报的新方法。以新滩滑坡为例,对累计水平位移进行态矢量分析,发现在滑坡前态矢量的模和态矢量增量的模均发生了明显突变,按态矢量曲线的变化规律,依据滑坡预警分级方法提出3级滑坡预警,最高预警级别预报的滑坡时间比实际滑坡时间提前2天。研究结果表明,态矢量的急剧突变是滑坡发生的前兆,可以用来进行滑坡的短期和临滑预报。     

气温增加对长江流域参照黑散发的影响研究

本文以联合国粮农组织推荐的改进彭曼-蒙特斯公式为基础,通过日气温计算年蒸发总量并验证,用典型年预测全流域年平均气温增加时,参照蒸散发的变化情况。研究表明:长江流域的年蒸发量将随年平均气温的上升而增加;上游增幅大于中下游,各月增幅相近;气温增幅的年内分布不容忽视,考虑到年内气温不等量增长后的计算结果相对更为合理。研究结果表明:当流域年平均气温升高1℃时,流域上、中下游参照蒸散发分别将增加5%和4%.研究中未考虑气温日较差的变化.     

IPCC AR6报告解读：气候变化对城市、住区和关键基础设施的影响与适应

IPCC AR6 WGII评估了气候变化对城市、住区和关键基础设施的影响、风险及应对。气候变化对城市影响的程度和范围逐渐增加,全球城市化的过程与气候变化相互作用加剧了城市和住区的风险。通过社会基础设施、基于自然的解决方案和灰色/工程基础设施所采取的适应措施对气候恢复力发展均有贡献,而城市适应差距在世界各地普遍存在。气候恢复力发展需要多方协作、弥合政策行动差距、提升适应能力。评估报告的经验和案例为我国城乡地区适应和应对气候变化风险提供借鉴。     

气侯变化对东部季风区赣江和官厅流域径流的影响

选取中国东部季风区南方赣江流域和北方官厅流域,基于逐日气象和水文观测数据率定和验证了HBV水文模型,并以国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）中输出要素最多的5个全球气候模式在3种典型浓度路径（RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下的预估结果驱动HBV模型,预估了气候变化对21世纪两个流域径流的影响。结果表明：(1) 1961—2017年,赣江和官厅流域年平均气温均呈显著上升趋势,升温速率分别为0.17℃/(10 a)和0.28℃/(10 a);同期,赣江流域降水显著增加,官厅流域降水微弱下降。不同RCP情景下,21世纪两个流域均将持续变暖、降水有所增加,北方官厅流域的气温和降水增幅均大于南方赣江流域。(2) 21世纪,官厅流域年、季径流增幅远大于赣江流域。官厅流域年径流在近期（2020—2039年）、中期（2050—2069年）、末期（2080—2099年）均呈增加趋势,RCP8.5情景下增幅最大、RCP4.5最小。赣江流域在RCP4.5下,近期、中期年径流相对基准期略有减少,但在整个21世纪径流呈上升趋势;RCP2.6和RCP8.5下,21世纪中期以后径流增幅下降。(3) 21世纪,东部季风区北部的官厅流域发生洪涝、南方赣江流域发生干旱的可能性增大,不同RCP情景预估得到相同的结论。     

IPCC影响评估中的社会经济新情景（SSPs）进展

气候变化情景在全球和区域气候变化预估中得到广泛应用,温室气体排放情景是气候模拟的基础,影响温室气体排放的社会经济驱动因素,如人口增长、经济发展、技术进步、环境条件、社会管理等假设组成了社会经济情景.IPCC先后发展了SA90、IS92、SRES等情景,应用于历次评估报告.