Environmentally stratified sampling design for the development of Great Lakes environmental indicators

Understanding the relationship between human disturbance and ecological response is essential to the process of indicator development. For large-scale observational studies, sites should be selected across gradients of anthropogenic stress, but such gradients are often unknown for a population of sites prior to site selection. Stress data available from public sources can be used in a geographic information system (GIS) to partially characterize environmental conditions for large geographic areas without visiting the sites. We divided the U.S. Great Lakes coastal region into 762 units consisting of a shoreline reach and drainage-shed and then summarized over 200 environmental variables in seven categories for the units using a GIS. Redundancy within the categories of environmental variables was reduced using principal components analysis. Environmental strata were generated from cluster analysis using principal component scores as input. To protect against site selection bias, sites were selected in random order from clusters. The site selection process allowed us to exclude sites that were inaccessible and was shown to successfully distribute sites across the range of environmental variation in our GIS data. This design has broad applicability when the goal is to develop ecological indicators using observational data from large-scale surveys.     

Artificial Neural Networks for Risk Decision Support in Natural Hazards: A Case Study of Assessing the Probability of House Survival from Bushfires

Risk decision-making in natural hazards encompasses a plethora of environmental, socio-economic and management-related factors, and benefits greatly from exploring possible patterns and relations among these multivariate factors. Artificial neural networks, capable of general pattern classifications, are potentially well suited for risk decision support in natural hazards. This paper reports an example that assesses the risk patterns or probabilities of house survival from bushfires using artificial neural networks, with a simulation data set based on the empirical study by Wilson and Ferguson (Predicting the probability of house survival during bushfires, Journal of Environmental Management 23 (1986) 259–270). The aim of this study was to re-model and predict the relationship between risk patterns of house survival and a series of independent variables. Various configurations for input and output variables were tested using neural networks. An approach for converting linguistic terms into crisp numbers was used to incorporate linguistic variables into the quantitative neural network analysis. After a series of tests, results show that neural networks are capable of predicting risk patterns under all tested configurations of input and output variables, with a great deal of flexibility. Risk-based mathematical functions, be they linear or non-linear, can be re-modelled using neural networks. Finally, the paper concludes that the artificial neural networks serve as a promising risk decision support tool in natural hazards.     

Sustainable Remediation and Decision Analysis Practices at an Onshore Gas Well Site

Strategies for remediation of drilling mud wastes at a typical deep sour gas well site in the foothills of Alberta were assessed in terms of financial and social costs and benefits, in alignment with established sustainable remediation and decision analysis principles. Managers of contaminated sites containing historical drilling wastes are challenged with managing liability through several regulatory changes over time. Excavation and disposal of the contaminated soil from the site was the only means of securing regulatory release, with the nearest landfill located 150 km away. A perception exists that in many cases excavation and disposal inflicts unnecessary levels of site intrusiveness and public disturbance when other options achieving a similar risk end point may do so for lower social cost. The study tested this hypothesis to ascertain whether the currently accepted solution is the best option when the wider costs and benefits to society and the environment are included. Eight remedial strategies were assessed using cost–benefit analysis, including using environmental economics techniques to quantify social and environmental impacts. The economic model showed that methods such as capping in‐place or engineered encapsulation were superior to full excavation and disposal from financial and sustainability perspectives. Quantified external costs and benefits such as road damage, greenhouse gas emissions, public nuisance and safety, and community amenity value were influential in identifying superior options. It was demonstrated that $0.2 million of societal costs could be avoided by choosing capping over landfill disposal. This represents substantial implications when viewed in the context of this and other operators’ portfolios of hundreds of abandoned wells in the area. ©2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Understanding Human–Landscape Interactions in the “Anthropocene”

This article summarizes the primary outcomes of an interdisciplinary workshop in 2010, sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation, focused on developing key questions and integrative themes for advancing the science of human–landscape systems. The workshop was a response to a grand challenge identified recently by the U.S. National Research Council (2010a)—“How will Earth’s surface evolve in the “Anthropocene?”—suggesting that new theories and methodological approaches are needed to tackle increasingly complex human–landscape interactions in the new era. A new science of human–landscape systems recognizes the interdependence of hydro-geomorphological, ecological, and human processes and functions. Advances within a range of disciplines spanning the physical, biological, and social sciences are therefore needed to contribute toward interdisciplinary research that lies at the heart of the science. Four integrative research themes were identified—thresholds/tipping points, time scales and time lags, spatial scales and boundaries, and feedback loops—serving as potential focal points around which theory can be built for human–landscape systems. Implementing the integrative themes requires that the research communities: (1) establish common metrics to describe and quantify human, biological, and geomorphological systems; (2) develop new ways to integrate diverse data and methods; and (3) focus on synthesis, generalization, and meta-analyses, as individual case studies continue to accumulate. Challenges to meeting these needs center on effective communication and collaboration across diverse disciplines spanning the natural and social scientific divide. Creating venues and mechanisms for sustained focused interdisciplinary collaborations, such as synthesis centers, becomes extraordinarily important for advancing the science.     

Guided group discussion and the reported use of toxic products: The persuasiveness of hearing others’ views

Guided group discussion ( [Lewin et?al., 1952] , [Werner, 2003] and [Werner and Adams, 2001] ) was used to persuade groups to replace their toxic home and garden chemicals with nontoxic alternatives. We hypothesized that discussion would allow participants to hear others endorse the new information, and this normative information would facilitate persuasion. Approximately two months after the group discussion, we obtained questionnaires from the organizer of the meeting and a member of the group who had missed the meeting because of another obligation (i.e., not because of disinterest in the topic). Most organizers were female and analyses were limited to females. This quasi-experimental matched control group design indicated that those who attended the meeting were more favorable towards using nontoxics and more interested in sharing leftover toxic products with friends (instead of discarding them). Path and mediation analyses showed that the organizer’s evaluation of the meeting predicted her final attitude, and perceptions that the group endorsed the material (perceived group norm) partially mediated this relationship. A second mediation analysis showed that evaluation of the meeting predicted intention to share leftover toxics and this relationship was fully mediated by the organizer’s impression that the group would also share leftovers. The results support the idea that persuasion is based both on individual evaluation and normative influence, especially when people are not confident others will accept the behavior, such as sharing leftover toxic products.     

MOTIVATIONS AND BEHAVIORS THAT SUPPORT RECYCLING

This paper proposes that recycling researchers should pay attention to both attitudes towards recycling and the processes involved in recycling (recyclers' phenomenal experiences and organizing strategies). As predicted by Sansone and colleagues' model of how people induce themselves to engage in necessary but boring tasks, people who had reasons to persist at recycling (that is, who held strong prorecycling attitudes or had a social orientation towards recycling) were more likely to redefine recycling so as to emphasize its pleasures or the sense of satisfaction they gained from contributing to the environment. These people were also more likely to have developed a way of organizing recycling in their homes, to report few interferences with recycling, and—most important—to recycle on both short- and long-term bases. In accord with the model, people who became better recyclers by Time 2 had had stronger prorecycling attitudes at Time 1 than people who remained poor recyclers. Our results are consistent with the view that people who make a valued but uninteresting task more phenomenally interesting and more manageable are more likely to continue at the task. Sansone and colleagues' model provides a useful way to look at recycling and also suggests a new way that attitudes may be linked to behavior—via cognitive transformation of behavior.     

Relationship of Indoor N02 Concentrations to Use of Unvented Gas Appliances

In preparation for a prospective study of the relationship of residential nitrogen dioxide exposure and respiratory infections in infants, we conducted a pilot study to assess NO₂ concentrations in a sample of homes in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The methods used to characterize concentrations are described. Three locations in 144 homes were monitored with passive diffusion samplers for two two-week cycles during November and December 1984. Two-week average NO₂ concentrations in the activity room ranged from 2.0 to 168.7 ppb. NO₂ concentrations in the activity room and the infant’s bedroom were fivefold higher in homes with gas stoves than in homes with electric stoves. Sixty-four percent of homes with gas stoves had activity room concentrations that exceeded the highest outdoor concentration. Multiple regression models Indicated that the outdoor concentration, use of a gas stove, particularly one with pilot lights, presence of a gas dryer in the living area, and use of a floor or wall furnace contributed to NO₂ concentrations. Use of a toaster or microwave oven in a house with a gas stove reduced NO₂ concentrations. The results of this study demonstrate a broad range of NO₂ concentrations in Albuquerque. We conclude with suggestions for an exposure assessment strategy that would be valid and feasible in the context of a large epidemiologic study of the health effects of NO₂.