Uncertain reasoning using the Dempster-Shafer method: an application in forecasting and marketing management

Abstract: The intended purpose of this article is twofold: to study techniques for uncertainty management in expert systems, particularly the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief; and to use this method in the construction of an expert system for the field of forecasting and marketing management. Compared with the probabilistic approach, which can only deal with singleton possibilities, the Dempster-Shafer approach proves to be superior because it provides the ability to deal with sets of possibilities. Since market analysis and forecasting always have a strong element of uncertainty associated with them, and since, in general, we consider a combination of several different forecasting techniques for planning our marketing strategies, the Dempster-Shafer approach is particularly suitable. Here we present a short introduction to this theory, briefly discuss the domain of application (selection of forecasting techniques for marketing planning), discuss the interesting components of our expert system, and analyze our experiences in applying the theory to this domain.     

Honeymoon on Mars

The editor discusses new opportunities for multimedia research with regards to NASA and space development, also considering how the private sector might weigh in on financial space travel.     

The effect of replacing oil with water and NaCl with KCl on soybean oil hydrolysis and oxidation in canned skipjack tuna fish at the end of the 18-month shelf life

The effects of replacing oil with water (0, 3, 6, and 10% based on total net weight of the product) and replacing NaCl with KCl (0, 50, and 100%) at different replacement levels were surveyed. Hydrolysis (acidity number), peroxide value, and thiobarbituric acid (TBA) index were evaluated at the end of the 18-month shelf life in canned skipjack tuna fish. Results showed that the TBA index was not affected, whereas the peroxide value was affected by replacing oil with water and NaCl with KCl (p>0.05), so that by increasing in replacing oil with water and replacing NaCl with KCl, the peroxide value was significantly decreased (p<0.05). Hydrolysis (acidity number) was affected by replacing oil with water (p<0.05); however, it was not affected by replacing NaCl with KCl (p>0.05). It was found out the best suggestion is 10% replacing oil with water and 50% replacing NaCl with KCl.     

Effect of Geometrical Parameters on Piezoresponse of Nanofibrous Wearable Piezoelectric Nanofabrics Under Low Impact Pressure

Piezoelectric polymers are potential energizers for wearable electronics due to the possibility of developing their yarns for various textile products. The present study is aimed at understanding the effect of geometrical parameters, viz., yarn linear density (measured as Tex), twist per meter (TPM), plying, as well as weft and warp density on the piezoelectric voltage of electrospun yarns of polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) polymer and poly[(vinylidene fluoride)-co-trifluoroethylene] [P(VDF-TrFE)] copolymer. Yarns are developed by twisting and plying electrospun nanofibers and their mechanical and piezoelectric properties are systematically investigated. Relative advantages of the yarns of the copolymer with respect to PVDF in both aligned and random fiber geometries are evaluated. The studies show that piezoresponse of the woven nanogenerators can be enhanced by decreasing Tex and increasing the TPM, the plying number, and the fabric density. A record piezovoltage of ≈2.5 V is achieved through this work. The results of the present work can be used for the fabrication of flexible and breathable nanogenerators or sensors.     

Optimal Spectrum Management of DSL With Nonstrictly Convex Rate Region

Recently, the problem of optimal spectral balancing (OSB) for digital subscriber lines (DSL) with constrained transmit power has been solved using Lagrange's dual optimization technique and a weighted sum rate maximization (WSRM) approach. In many cases, the total power constraint is not binding. Although, this means a huge computational complexity reduction, the algorithm fails to reach certain points on the rate region (RR). In this paper, an in-depth analytical view of the WSRM approach is provided, and it is shown that when the RR is not strictly convex, the WSRM approach fails to reach certain points on the RR. Moreover, using N-dimensional geometry, a novel iterative facet dividing algorithm (IFDA) capable of reaching any point on the RR is proposed. Analytical and simulation results show that our technique is much more reliable and considerably faster than current algorithms. Moreover, it can be used for a wide range of problems which use WSRM approach, including OSB in the general case.     

TUI or GUI--It's a Matter of Somatics

The author considers the advantages and possibilities for developing and implementing touch-based interfaces.     

Thermal buckling and postbuckling analysis of functionally graded annular plates with temperature-dependent material properties

As a first endeavor, the thermal buckling and postbuckling analysis of functionally graded (FG) annular plates with material properties graded in the radial direction is presented. The formulation is derived based on the first-order shear deformation theory (FSDT) and the geometrical nonlinearity is modeled using Green’s strain in conjunction with von Karman’s assumptions. The material properties are temperature-dependent and graded according to the power law distribution. It is assumed that the temperature varies along the radial direction. Using the virtual work principle, the pre-buckling and postbuckling equilibrium equations and the related boundary conditions are derived. Differential quadrature method (DQM) as an efficient numerical technique is adopted to solve the governing equations. The presented formulation and the method of solution are validated by performing convergence and comparison studies with available results in the literature. Finally, the effects of volume fraction index, geometrical parameters, mechanical/thermal properties of the constituent materials and boundary conditions on the thermal buckling and postbuckling behavior of the radially graded annular plate are evaluated and discussed.     

A Multimedia Information Repository for Cross Cultural Dance Studies

Multimedia technologies provide effective means for studying the evolution of dance across time and space. The study may be at the micro level which analyzes the development of an individual's performance and the movements of the dancer(s) in 3D space and over the length of the dance. However, at the macro level, diffusion of dance throughout the world over a span of time may be investigated in order to trace particular dance repertoires that may have traveled across various cultures and traditions. Although clearly different with respect to the expected objectives, both micro level analysis and macro level analysis require detailed comparison of patterns on the basis of certain characteristics that are deemed significant for a given dance. These characteristics are diverse in nature and may include such parameters as design formations, use of space (including level, direction, etc.), dynamics, paraphernalia (e.g., swords, sticks, etc.), sound, and color.We present the design of a multimedia information system with two complimentary aims. The first is to automate, to the greatest degree possible, the process of comparison and analysis of dance and human movement. Much of the information about dance exists in the form of video, images, audio and written commentaries, all collected into a digital library. As dance related materials are added, a wide variety of routines are needed to extract the necessary low level features from the multimedia objects. These low level features are then interpreted to human understandable features and patterns, which will be used for analysis by specialists. The second aim is to bring artists and technologists closer in a meaningful way.     

Digital Textbooks

The traditional publishing industry is seeing the first signs of its own doom while desperately hanging on to the last few dollars of profit from selling pulped forest trees. The demise of paper-based publishing is as certain and as inevitable as the end of the use of stone hieroglyphics. It's likely that Generation X will be the last to support the traditional print-publishing industry. The rationale for this prediction is simple: there is absolutely no reason for high school students to carry around pounds of books in their backpack when almost everything else is now paperless. In the following paragraphs, I will explain why the extinction of paper-based textbook publishing is inevitable and why the strategies of the publishing industry to maintain its grip should be viewed as last-gasp efforts.