Probability Disassembled

While there is no universal logic of induction, the probabilitycalculus succeeds as a logic of induction in many contexts throughits use of several notions concerning inductive inference. Theyinclude Addition, through which low probabilities representdisbelief as opposed to ignorance; and Bayes property, whichcommits the calculus to a ‘refute and rescale’ dynamicsfor incorporating new evidence. These notions are independentand it is urged that they be employed selectively accordingto needs of the problem at hand. It is shown that neither isadapted to inductive inference concerning some indeterministicsystems.

1 Introduction

2 Failure of demonstrations of universality

2.1 Working backwards

2.2 The surface logic

3 Framework

3.1 The properties

3.2 Boundaries

3.2.1 Universalcomparability

3.2.2 Transitivity

3.2.3 Monotonicity

4 Addition

4.1 The property: disbelief versus ignorance

4.2Boundaries

5 Bayes property

5.1 The property

5.2 Bayes' theorem

5.3Boundaries

5.3.1 Dogmatism of the priors

5.3.2 Impossibilityof prior ignorance

5.3.3 Accommodation of virtues

6Real values

7 Sufficiency and independence

8 Illustrations

8.1 All properties retained

8.2 Bayes propertyonly retained

8.3 Induction without additivity and Bayes property

9Conclusion

     

秦始皇兵马俑博物馆室内含硫颗粒物的SEM-EDX研究

本文对秦始皇兵马俑博物馆室内采集的长短期降尘、大气悬浮颗粒物和彩绘漆层进行了SEM-EDX研究，在大气悬浮颗粒、短期和长期降尘中，含硫颗粒的粒径分别为0.9～22.8μm、1.0～29.0μm和1.2～37.7μm，多为石膏与粘土或石英以内部混合的状态存在。降尘中的附着型絮状硫酸钙多于大气悬浮颗粒物中，显示降尘和大气中的二氧化硫发生了累进的化学反应。彩绘漆层表面的坑和裂隙附近观察到原位生长的硫酸钙晶体，显示漆层材料或降尘颗粒物与大气二氧化硫之间的酸化学反应，可能是彩绘漆层表面受侵蚀形成微小坑和裂隙的原因之一。