Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.     

Groundwater resources in the Jabal Al Hass region,northwest Syria: an assessment of past use and future potential

In many cases, the development of groundwater resources to boost agricultural production in dry areas has led to a continuous decline in groundwater levels; this has called into question the sustainability of such exploitation. In developing countries, limited budgets and scarce hydrological data often do not allow groundwater resources to be assessed through groundwater modeling. A case study is presented of a low-cost water-balance approach to groundwater resource assessments in a 1,550 km² semi-arid region in northwestern Syria. The past development of irrigated agriculture and its effect on the groundwater system were studied by analysis of Landsat images and long-term groundwater level changes, respectively. All components of the groundwater balance were determined. Groundwater recharge was estimated using the chloride mass balance method. Over the past three decades, groundwater levels have declined, on average, 23 m, coinciding with a two-fold increase in the groundwater-irrigated area. Groundwater resources are currently depleted by a value that lies between 9.5×10⁶ and 118×10⁶ m³ year^?1, which is larger than can be compensated for by a future decrease in natural discharge or changes in boundary conditions. However, groundwater resources are likely to be sufficient to supply domestic and livestock needs in the area.     

High heat flow anomalies on an old oceanic plate observed seaward of the Japan Trench

Thirty-three new measurements on the seaward slope and outer rise of the Japan Trench along a parallel of 38°45′N revealed the existence of high heat flow anomalies on the subducting Pacific plate, where the seafloor age is about 135 m.y.. The most prominent anomaly with the highest value of 114 mW/m² is associated with a small mound on the outer rise, which was reported to be a kind of mud volcano. On the seaward slope of the trench, heat flow is variable: high (70–90 mW/m²) at some locations and normal for the seafloor age (about 50 mW/m²) at others. The spatial variation of heat flow may be related to development of normal faults and horst/graben structures due to bending of the Pacific plate before subduction, with fluid flow along the fault zones enhancing the vertical heat transfer. Possible heat sources of the high heat flow anomalies are intra-plate volcanism in the last several million years like that discovered recently on the Pacific plate east of the Japan Trench.     

Mechanism for the rapid motion of the Qianjiangping landslide during reactivation by the first impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam reservoir, China

The first impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam reservoir in China started from a water surface elevation of 95 m on June 1, 2003 and reached 135 m on June 15, 2003. Shortly after the water level reached 135 m, many slopes began to deform and some landslides occurred. The Qianjiangping landslide is the largest one; it occurred on the early morning of July 14, 2003 and caused great loss of lives and property. Field investigation revealed that, although failure occurred after the reservoir reached 135 m, the stability of the slope was already reduced by preexisting sheared bedding planes. To study the mechanism of the rapid motion of this reactivated landslide, two soil samples were taken from a yellow clay layer and a black silt layer in the sliding zone, respectively, and a series of ring shear tests were conducted on the samples. One series of ring shear tests simulates the creep deformation behavior, while the other series simulates different shear rates. Conclusions drawn from analysis of the ring shear tests indicate that the mechanism of the rapid motion of the reactivated landslide was caused by the rate effect of the black silt layer during the motion phase after the creep failure. The yellow clay layer did not play any important role in the rapid motion in the 2003 event.     

电容测试法判断测井电缆系统故障

测井电缆因长途颠簸、拉伸及绞车缠绕挤压,电缆连接器、电缆、绞车滑环、滑环连线等部位极易出现故障。电容测试法是一种简易、快速的检测方法,该法可在现场准确诊断出故障电缆的位置。以四芯铠装电缆为例,每根缆芯的正常阻值约为80Ω/1 000m,两缆芯间的分布电容约为170PPF/1 000m。在实际检测中,根据电容较小时测点的位置,可以有效判断故障部位;而电缆故障位置则可利用电阻及电容的线性关系进行计算予以确定。     

基于ArcGIS Engine的水下间断等高线自动连接研究

本文利用ArcGIS提供的数据分析和数据管理功能对不连续的水下等高线自动连接问题进行了研究。ArcGIS Engine作为ESRI公司最新推出的面向开发的嵌入式组件,具有高效便捷的特点,由于其开发时完全脱离了ArcGIS桌面平台,因而为用户提供了一个可供选择的,有针对性的,低成本的GIS应用选择。本文对水下地形等高线的断线自动连接问题应用ArcGIS Engine进行了研究实验,阐述了使用该技术编程的具体过程,实验结果证明了本文方法的有效性和实用价值。     

三维地震小面元采集技术在晋城矿区的应用

依托“西部煤炭资源高精度三维地震勘探技术”工程,对晋城矿区进行了旨在提高小断层,小陷落柱探测能力的高密度三维地震勘探。根据面元选择因素及该区地质任务,采用5m×5m网格进行野外数据采集;考虑炮检距、方位角、覆盖次数、排列片横纵比及煤层埋深（350～500m）等因素,采用中点放炮、60道接收,24次覆盖（横向4次,纵向6次）的8线16炮束状观测系统,基岩中激发。原始资料经同一处理流程后,获得5m×5m×1ms、5m×10m×1ms、10m×10m×1ms及2.5m×2.5m×1ms不同单元的三维数据体多个,通过对比可以发现小断层,小陷落柱在其小面元叠加时间剖面、顺层切片及相干切片都有清晰的反映。实例说明,小面元采集技术可以提高对小构造的纵、横向分辨能力,满足山区对三维地震精确勘探的要求。     

Inversely-Mapped Analytical Solutions for Flow Patterns around and within Inclined Elliptic Inclusions in Fluid-Saturated Rocks

In this paper, an inverse mapping is used to transform the previously-derived analytical solutions from a local elliptical coordinate system into a conventional Cartesian coordinate system. This enables a complete set of exact analytical solutions to be derived rigorously for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function, and excess pore-fluid pressure around and within buried inclined elliptic inclusions in pore-fluid-saturated porous rocks. To maximize the application range of the derived analytical solutions, the focal distance of an ellipse is used to represent the size of the ellipse, while the length ratio of the long axis to the short one is used to represent the geometrical shape of the ellipse. Since the present analytical solutions are expressed in a conventional Cartesian coordinate system, it is convenient to investigate, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pressure around and within many different families of buried inclined elliptic inclusions. The major advantage in using the present analytical solution is that they can be conveniently computed in a global Cartesian coordinate system, which is widely used in many scientific and engineering computations. As an application example, the present analytical solutions have been used to investigate how the dip angle of an inclined elliptic inclusion affects the distribution patterns of the pore-fluid flow and excess pore-fluid pressure when the permeability ratio of the elliptic inclusion is of finite but nonzero values.