Reliability of calibration of a monthly rainfall-runoff model: the semiarid case / Validité de l'étalonnage d'un modèle pluie-débit à pas de temps mensuel: cas d'un bassin semi aride

ABSTRACT

A monthly conceptual rainfall—runoff model that enjoys fairly widespread use in South Africa was calibrated for each of 50 calibration samples of lengths 3–20 years, drawn from a synthetic 101-year semiarid streamflow time series generated with the Stanford Watershed Model. The ability of Pitman's model to reconstruct the original 101 years of monthly streamflow for each of the 50 calibrations was then examined against a set of statistics of monthly and annual streamflows. The variabilities of key model parameters associated with different lengths of calibration period were also investigated. The results show that it is well worthwhile to increase the calibration period to about 15 years in order to reduce errors in reconstructed flow statistics. Merely increasing the length of calibration period from 6 to 10 years may decrease the error in most regenerated flow statistics by 30–50%. A fair amount of variability in “optimum” parameters, however, seems unavoidable, even at longer calibration periods, though this may also partly be due to imperfect model calibration. The effects of this variability are greatly attenuated in the reconstructed flow statistics due to parameter interdependence.     

Cosmological Parameters from Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropies: Status and Prospects

A survey is made of the present constraints on cosmological parameters from Cosmic Microwave Background Anisotropies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Absolute parameters of the newly-identified contact binary star IS Canis Major

This paper presents the results of the first high-resolution spectroscopic observations of the Southern W UMa type system IS CMa. Spectroscopic observations of the system were made at Mt. John University Observatory using a HERCULES fibre-fed échelle spectrograph in September 2007. The first radial velocities of the component stars of the system were determined by using the spectral disentangling technique. The resulting orbital elements of IS CMa are: $a_1\sin i=0.0041\pm 0.0001$ AU, $a_2\sin i=0.0135\pm 0.0001$ AU, $M_1{\sin }^{3}i=1.48\pm 0.01{\mathrm{M}}_{\odot }$, and $M_2{\sin }^{3}i=0.44\pm 0.01{\mathrm{M}}_{\odot }$. The components were found to be in synchronous rotation taking into account the disentangled ${\mathrm{H}}_{\delta }$ line profiles of both components of the system. The Hipparcos light curve was solved by means of the Wilson–Devinney method supplemented with a Monte Carlo type algorithm. The radial velocity curve solutions including the proximity effects give the mass ratio of the system as 0.297 ± 0.001. The combination of the Hipparcos light and radial velocity curve solutions give the following absolute parameters of the components: $M_1=1.68\pm 0.04{\mathrm{M}}_{\odot }\text{,}{\mathrm{M}}_2=0.50\pm 0.02{\mathrm{M}}_{\odot }\text{,}{R}_1=2.00\pm 0.02{\mathrm{R}}_{\odot }\text{,}{R}_2=1.18\pm 0.03R_{\odot }\text{,}{L}_1=7.65\pm 0.60$ ${\mathrm{L}}_{\odot }$ and $L_2=1.99\pm 0.80{\mathrm{L}}_{\odot }$. The distance to IS CMa was calculated as $87\pm 5$ pc using the distance modulus with corrections for interstellar extinction. The position of the components of IS CMa in the HR diagram are also discussed: the system seems to have an age of 1.6 Gyr.     

Nepea and the nepeids (trilobites,Middle Cambrian,Australia)∗

Nepea narinosa Whitehouse, 1939, is as yet the only known species of the Nepeidae and Nepeacea. It is based on fragmentary material unsuitable for conclusive interpretation. The census of Nepeidae as yet unpublished includes five genera and twelve species, confined to the Middle and early Upper Cambrian of Australia. All nepeids have cedariform posterior sutures, free cheeks fused into a unit, a preglabellar boss, forked ocular ridges and a pustulose test. Nepea narinosa is distinguished by its very long intergenal spines and pointed, falcate palpebral lobes provided with a doublure.     

Secondary copper enrichment in tailings at the Laver mine, northern Sweden

 Field and laboratory studies of the sulphide-bearing tailings at Laver, northern Sweden, show that the present release of metals from the tailings is low, especially with regard to Cu. A large part of the Cu released by sulphide oxidation is enriched in a distinct zone just below the oxidation front. The enrichment zone occurs almost all over the tailings area except in areas with a shallow groundwater table. The Cu enrichment is caused by formation of covellite and adsorption onto mineral surfaces. The transport of Zn, Co, Cd, Ni and S seems to be controlled mainly by adsorption. No secondary zone or secondary minerals containing these metals have been found. Just below the groundwater table, metals are released into solution when the enrichment zone reaches the groundwater due to the low pH. An increased release of metals, especially Cu, can be expected in the future, since the enrichment zone is moving towards the groundwater table. Received: 4 December 1997 · Accepted: 17 December 1998     

A geological and geotechnical investigation of the settlement area of Zümrüt Building (Konya, Turkey) which caused 92 fatalities due to its collapse

This study examines the local geological conditions and soil structure as possible causes of the collapse of the Zümrüt Building 2 February 2004. This catastrophe resulted in 92 fatalities and 35 injuries. This study also examines other views which claim weak soil structure, elastic and consolidation settlement of soil and excessive groundwater extraction as well as subsidence resulting from the underground silt erosion as possible factors. Zümrüt Building was constructed on normally consolidated, low plasticity clay. The underground water table was 30 m in depth. The internal friction angle of soil was 8°–30°, its cohesion was between 34 and 127 kN/m² and standard penetration test numbers varied between 11 and 50. The underground water level beneath Zümrüt Building had risen 4.5 m since its construction. Therefore the claim that subsidence resulting from the decrease of underground water level contributed to the collapse is incorrect. Secondly the settlement, resulting from the filling up of the pores created by the silt receding with the underground water, was 4.4 mm in total, and attributing this as the primary cause of the collapse is also incorrect. Soil properties, in situ and laboratory test results showed that the existing and/or expected settlement and the differential ground settlement in the Zümrüt building vicinity had the potential to cause structural damage. The tensile stresses caused by differential settlements recorded here are thought to be an indicator, but not the main cause contributing to the collapse of the building. The Zümrüt Building collapse was due to several compounding mistakes during the construction phase. These were geotechnical and other project faults and the use of low quality construction materials. The resulting catastrophe caused 92 fatalities, 35 injuries and a material loss of approximately US$7 million.     

An improved input energy spectrum verified by the shake table tests

Input energy is the principal component of the energy balance equation. It is beneficial to determine, through its components, how the recoverable and irrecoverable energies are distributed within the structural elements. Several equations and attenuation relations to define mass-normalized input energy spectra exist in the literature. They are mainly proposed for elastic systems subjected to far-fault EQs. There is a lack of experimental verification of these proposed spectra. In this paper, experimental assessment was performed to the existing spectra, and further improvements were accomplished. For this purpose, steel cantilever columns were tested on the shake table for two specific historical EQs coincidently having similar spectral acceleration values. Based on the experimental results, a three-part mass-normalized relative input energy spectrum was formulated including soil type, EQ (corner period, intensity, duration, spectral acceleration, and velocity), and structural behavioral characteristics (period and structural damping). The proposed input energy spectrum was experimentally calibrated and numerically validated for various EQs featuring near- and far-field types. Analytical and experimental comparisons were made between the previously developed spectrum and the newly proposed one. The validation studies and the statistical evaluations exposed that the proposed spectrum yielded better agreement with the experimental and numerical results.     

‘PALEOVAN’, International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP): site survey results and perspectives

Lake Van is the fourth largest terminal lake in the world (volume 607 km³, area 3570 km², maximum depth 460 m), extending for 130 km WSW–ENE on the Eastern Anatolian High Plateau, Turkey. The sedimentary record of Lake Van, partly laminated, has the potential to obtain a long and continuous continental sequence that covers several glacial–interglacial cycles (ca 500 kyr). Therefore, Lake Van is a key site within the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) for the investigation of the Quaternary climate evolution in the Near East (‘PALEOVAN’). As preparation for an ICDP drilling campaign, a site survey was carried out during the past years. We collected 50 seismic profiles with a total length of ～850 km to identify continuous undisturbed sedimentary sequences for potential ICDP locations. Based on the seismic results, we cored 10 different locations to water depths of up to 420 m. Multidisciplinary scientific work at positions of a proposed ICDP drill site included measurements of magnetic susceptibility, physical properties, stable isotopes, XRF scans, and pollen and spores. This core extends back to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a more extended record than all the other Lake Van cores obtained to date. Both coring and seismic data do not show any indication that the deepest part of the lake (Tatvan Basin, Ahlat Ridge) was dry or almost dry during past times. These results show potential for obtaining a continuous undisturbed, long continental palaeoclimate record. In addition, this paper discusses the potential of ‘PALEOVAN’ to establish new results on the dynamics of lake level fluctuations, noble gas concentration in pore water of the lake sediment, history of volcanism and volcanic activities based on tephrostratigraphy, and paleoseismic and earthquake activities.