A CASE STUDY ON CONCENTRATION AND DECENTRALIZATION：BEHAVIOR AND DYNAMIC MECHANISM OF SPATIAL EVOLUTION IN METROPOLITAN AREA，NANJING，CHINA

In rapid socio-economic development,the process of concentration and dispersal of various elements tends to be more dramatic,tremendously influencing the shaping and transformation of the space in metropolitan area.Survey of spatial concentration and decentralization has thus become a basic method in examining metropolitan spatial evolution.In this research,three elements were selected as the essential indicators of the process:demographic density distribu-tion,employment density distribution and business office location.Performance of these elements in Nanjing City was exam-ined historically.As Nanjing City could be regarded as a representative of metropolitan areas in China,its situation large-ly suggestes the general characteristics in similar areas of China.Hence based on the investigation of Nanjing City,four general implications were highlighted.First ,metropolitan areas in China are in a violent process and shift of spatial concentra-tion and decentralization.Second,from now to at least the near future,concentration will continue to be the central fea-ture.Third,the landscape of metropolitan areas basically exhibits a dual structure character.The gap in environmental and ecological qualities among different districts will continue for a long time.Fourth,Central Business District (CBD) is playing an important role in helping to convert the traditionally single-centered city structure into a polycentric one.     

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE FLOODING AND DROUGHT CLAMITY DURING PAST 1500 YEARS IN THE HAI′AN REGION，JIANGSU PROVINCE

Collection and arrangement of the historical records of climatic changes and environment evolution,espectial-lyin the aspect of calamities,are made on the history documents of past 1500 years about Haiˊan region,Jiangsu Province.There existed two obvious flooding-drought frequently-occurring periods:one was from 1550 AD to 1850 AD and another was 100 AD to 1200AD.The period of 1550 AD to1850 AD is interrupted by two relatively arid and cold climatic periods:one was from 1630 AD to 1700 AD and another was 1750 AD to 1820 AD.The main characteristic of the calamity periods is that they occurred by turns,and sometimes,both drought and flooding occurred in the same year.The instability of the climatic changes in the Little Ice Age may be the main reason of the frequently-occurring flooding and drought in Haiˊan region.Research results also show that the frequently-occurring periods of flooding and drought is in close relationship with the solar activity,and therefore,occurrence of the flooding and drought may be in relation with the intensity of the solar activity.This hypothesis may need further study in the future.     

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山东水资源分析及趋势预测

通过分析近３９年山东省水资源的历史倾向性、阶段性、周期性,研究了水资源总量及径流量和地下水位的变化特征。结果表明,山东水资源量的年际变化大且呈快速下降态势,其中,地表径流量的下降尤为明显;水资源的变化存在一定的阶段性和周期性。通过分析降水与水资源的关系,发现两者的变化规律一致,但降水对水资源,特别是对地下水分量的影响有一定的持续性。建立均生函数预测模型,对未来水资源总量进行预测显示,１９９８￣２０     

长江防洪决策支持系统——防洪决策风险分析

针对长江中游防洪决策过程,筛选出几个主要的风险因子.考虑暴雨洪水历史资料,短期洪水位预报以及中长期雨洪预报三种不同信息条件,建立防洪决策风险分析模型,针对长江三峡至螺山河段防洪系统,是否启用分蓄洪区的各种防洪决策方案,给出决策风险的定量描述.     

Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China’s food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China’s future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2–7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10–19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO₂ fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.     

GRACE与SLR J_2项时间序列的小波分析

利用小波功率谱分析和离散小波变换,对CNES/GRGS、CSR、GFZ等研究机构发布的GRACE时变重力位模型的J2项时间序列进行了周期分析和特征提取,并与利用SLR跟踪数据获得的J2项时间序列的分析结果进行了比较,结果显示:SLR跟踪数据获得的J2项相较GRACEJ2项具有更明显的季节性变化特征.GRACE 时变重力位模型的J2项中混淆进了161天的周期信号,是由海洋潮汐模型中存在的太阳半日分潮S2项的误差引起的.     

Simulations of the Impact of Lakes on Local and Regional Climate Over the Tibetan Plateau

ABSTRACT

Because of the high elevation and complex topography of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the role of lakes in the climate system over the Tibetan Plateau is not well understood. For this study, we investigated the impact of lake processes on local and regional climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which includes a one-dimensional physically based lake model. The first simulation with the WRF model was performed for the TP over the 2000–2010 period, and the second was carried out during the same period but with the lakes filled with nearby land-use types. Results with the lake simulation show that the model captures the spatial and temporal patterns of annual mean precipitation and temperature well over the TP. Through comparison of the two simulations, we found that the TP lakes mainly cool the near-surface air, inducing a decreasing sensible heat flux for the entire year. Meanwhile, stronger evaporation produced by the lakes is found in the fall. During the summer, the cooling effect of the lakes decreases precipitation in the surrounding area and generates anomalous circulation patterns. In conclusion, the TP lakes cool the near-surface atmosphere most of the time, weaken the sensible heat flux, and strengthen the latent heat flux, resulting in changes in mesoscale precipitation and regional-scale circulation.     

冰碛土体起动泥石流的特征研究

与广泛分布于干旱河谷的宽级配砾石土体特征不同,冰碛土广泛分布在青藏高原地区,属粗大颗粒多、粘粒含量少、摩擦阻力大、粘滞阻力小的宽级配砾石土体。在冰川融雪与降雨的共同作用下冰碛土体可失稳并起动泥石流,形成灾害。针对冰碛土体起动泥石流机理研究薄弱的现状,本文选取波密县帕隆藏布流域的支流嘎弄沟一冰碛土堆积坡面,通过模拟降水与冰雪融水起动冰川泥石流实验,比较不同颗粒组成、不同实验条件下的土体起动泥石流特征,分析其起动成因及力学特性,探讨冰碛土体起动泥石流的机理。研究发现冰碛土体失稳起动泥石流是粘滞阻力降低、孔隙水压力升高、拖曳力与渗流侵蚀共同作用的结果,起动过程受粘土颗粒含量和径流类型的影响。当粘粒含量较高时（> 3%）,土体通过铲蚀与面蚀形成泥石流;粘粒含量中低时（不高于3%）,大部分坡面土体主要经掏蚀与坍塌起动泥石流;粘粒含量过低时（< 0.32%）,土体难以起动泥石流。在降水作用下土体孔隙水压力迅速增加,易造成土体破坏,起动泥石流;而在冰雪融水的作用下,土体孔隙水压力波动幅度不大时,土体同样可能发生失稳破坏起动泥石流。

     

Analysis of the Characteristics of Turbulent Flux and Its Footprint Climatology at An Agricultural Site

Based on quality controlled data from eddy covariance system and automatic weather station collected at Guantao farmland site from 2008 to 2010, the characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and annual variations of turbulent flux were reported. The corresponding source areas of flux measurement at different temporal scales were analyzed in detail, using arithmetic-averaged and flux-weighted footprint climatology calculation method, respectively. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, sensible heat and latent heat flux both show consistent diurnal variation throughout the year, while CO₂ fluxes only have significant diurnal variation in growing season with an opposite trend. The seasonal variation of the turbulent flux is mainly affected by the crop type and its growth status in different phenological periods. During growing season, latent heat flux and CO₂ flux are the dominant flux exchange items whose value are significantly higher in their middle growth stage than other ones during which latent heat and CO₂ flux exchange of the summer corn is stronger than winter wheat. Secondly, with combined effects of wind, turbulence and surface condition, the source area of flux measurement change most significantly at daily scale, less obvious at seasonal scale and smallest at annual scale. Finally, compared with arithmetic-averaged footprint climatology method, flux-weighted footprint climatology is a more reasonable method to calculate the source areas of the flux measurement, in that they account for the time change of the actual turbulent flux. The arithmetic-averaged results are most likely to overestimate the size of source area during small observed flux due to its weak turbulent exchange.