Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China’s food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China’s future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2–7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10–19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO₂ fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.     

GRACE与SLR J_2项时间序列的小波分析

利用小波功率谱分析和离散小波变换,对CNES/GRGS、CSR、GFZ等研究机构发布的GRACE时变重力位模型的J2项时间序列进行了周期分析和特征提取,并与利用SLR跟踪数据获得的J2项时间序列的分析结果进行了比较,结果显示:SLR跟踪数据获得的J2项相较GRACEJ2项具有更明显的季节性变化特征.GRACE 时变重力位模型的J2项中混淆进了161天的周期信号,是由海洋潮汐模型中存在的太阳半日分潮S2项的误差引起的.     

Simulations of the Impact of Lakes on Local and Regional Climate Over the Tibetan Plateau

ABSTRACT

Because of the high elevation and complex topography of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the role of lakes in the climate system over the Tibetan Plateau is not well understood. For this study, we investigated the impact of lake processes on local and regional climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which includes a one-dimensional physically based lake model. The first simulation with the WRF model was performed for the TP over the 2000–2010 period, and the second was carried out during the same period but with the lakes filled with nearby land-use types. Results with the lake simulation show that the model captures the spatial and temporal patterns of annual mean precipitation and temperature well over the TP. Through comparison of the two simulations, we found that the TP lakes mainly cool the near-surface air, inducing a decreasing sensible heat flux for the entire year. Meanwhile, stronger evaporation produced by the lakes is found in the fall. During the summer, the cooling effect of the lakes decreases precipitation in the surrounding area and generates anomalous circulation patterns. In conclusion, the TP lakes cool the near-surface atmosphere most of the time, weaken the sensible heat flux, and strengthen the latent heat flux, resulting in changes in mesoscale precipitation and regional-scale circulation.     

冰碛土体起动泥石流的特征研究

与广泛分布于干旱河谷的宽级配砾石土体特征不同,冰碛土广泛分布在青藏高原地区,属粗大颗粒多、粘粒含量少、摩擦阻力大、粘滞阻力小的宽级配砾石土体。在冰川融雪与降雨的共同作用下冰碛土体可失稳并起动泥石流,形成灾害。针对冰碛土体起动泥石流机理研究薄弱的现状,本文选取波密县帕隆藏布流域的支流嘎弄沟一冰碛土堆积坡面,通过模拟降水与冰雪融水起动冰川泥石流实验,比较不同颗粒组成、不同实验条件下的土体起动泥石流特征,分析其起动成因及力学特性,探讨冰碛土体起动泥石流的机理。研究发现冰碛土体失稳起动泥石流是粘滞阻力降低、孔隙水压力升高、拖曳力与渗流侵蚀共同作用的结果,起动过程受粘土颗粒含量和径流类型的影响。当粘粒含量较高时（> 3%）,土体通过铲蚀与面蚀形成泥石流;粘粒含量中低时（不高于3%）,大部分坡面土体主要经掏蚀与坍塌起动泥石流;粘粒含量过低时（< 0.32%）,土体难以起动泥石流。在降水作用下土体孔隙水压力迅速增加,易造成土体破坏,起动泥石流;而在冰雪融水的作用下,土体孔隙水压力波动幅度不大时,土体同样可能发生失稳破坏起动泥石流。

     

Analysis of the Characteristics of Turbulent Flux and Its Footprint Climatology at An Agricultural Site

Based on quality controlled data from eddy covariance system and automatic weather station collected at Guantao farmland site from 2008 to 2010, the characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and annual variations of turbulent flux were reported. The corresponding source areas of flux measurement at different temporal scales were analyzed in detail, using arithmetic-averaged and flux-weighted footprint climatology calculation method, respectively. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, sensible heat and latent heat flux both show consistent diurnal variation throughout the year, while CO₂ fluxes only have significant diurnal variation in growing season with an opposite trend. The seasonal variation of the turbulent flux is mainly affected by the crop type and its growth status in different phenological periods. During growing season, latent heat flux and CO₂ flux are the dominant flux exchange items whose value are significantly higher in their middle growth stage than other ones during which latent heat and CO₂ flux exchange of the summer corn is stronger than winter wheat. Secondly, with combined effects of wind, turbulence and surface condition, the source area of flux measurement change most significantly at daily scale, less obvious at seasonal scale and smallest at annual scale. Finally, compared with arithmetic-averaged footprint climatology method, flux-weighted footprint climatology is a more reasonable method to calculate the source areas of the flux measurement, in that they account for the time change of the actual turbulent flux. The arithmetic-averaged results are most likely to overestimate the size of source area during small observed flux due to its weak turbulent exchange.     

南海珠江口盆地白云凹陷现今地温场与新生代构造—热演化特征

位于南海北缘的珠江口盆地深水区作为我国海洋油气勘探的重点区域,具有良好的油气勘探前景。本文利用钻井地热测量数据分析了珠江口盆地深水区现今地温场及岩石圈热结构特征,通过古温标反演和拉张盆地模型正演相结合的方法定量揭示了白云凹陷新生代以来的热史,总结了不同地热地质条件对油气生成的影响。研究结果表明：珠江口盆地大地热流分布特征具有北低南高的特点,同时具有“热幔冷壳”的特征。珠江口盆地深水区始新世以来经历了两期拉张过程,第一期（47.8～33.9 Ma）拉张自始新世发生,拉张强度较大,凹陷中心基底热流快速上升至～82 mW/m²;第二期（23～13.8 Ma）拉张发生于中新世,此次拉张在白云凹陷南部更强烈,白云凹陷主体在 13.8 Ma达到最高古基底热流,此后进入热沉降阶段,基底热流值一直缓慢下降。磷灰石裂变径迹、磷灰石（U-Th）/He及锆石（U-Th）/He联合反演给出了最高古地温在13.8 Ma附近达到,后期温度基本稳定。     

致密砂岩层内强钙质胶结物成因机制及其意义——以鄂尔多斯盆地三叠系延长组长7油层组为例

通过岩心和薄片观察,利用荧光显微镜、阴极发光显微镜、同位素质谱仪、冷热台等设备,对鄂尔多斯盆地长7油层组强钙质胶结砂岩及其附近含油砂岩开展研究。结果表明：钙质胶结是致密砂岩储层含油非均质性的主要因素,胶结期次主要为一期;簇同位素揭示该期钙质胶结物的形成温度为18~42℃,对应地质时代为中晚三叠世—中侏罗世,为早成岩期产物,推测与盆地早期小规模构造运动相关;相邻的含油砂岩中油气包裹体伴生的同期盐水包裹体的均一化温度为90~120℃,结合盆地模拟揭示油气主要为一期充注,充注期为100~130 Ma,处于早白垩世;长7油层组不含油致密砂岩内钙质胶结物形成时间早于含油砂岩内石油的充注时间。     

利用NCEP资料对赤峰机场一次雷暴天气的初步分析

文章利用NCEP再分析资料对2013年8月15日发生在赤峰机场的雷暴天气进行了初步分析,揭示了此次雷暴天气的产生机制。结果表明:低空暖式切变和高空槽是本次雷暴天气的触发因子,低空西南急流使辐合加剧并迅速输送了水汽;低空槽前气流的突然增大对对流性天气预报有一定的帮助,特别是低空西南急流的建立,不仅增大了水汽输送的效率,迅速积累了大量不稳定能量,还加剧了急流左侧区域的辐合;对流指数的统计经验阈值对雷暴天气预报有着很好的指示作用,综合分析多种指数使预报效果更好;温度层结差并不能说明没有对流性天气,低空充沛的水汽条件能弥补这一不足。     

苏北—滨海断裂北段最新活动时代研究

苏北—滨海断裂在江苏以北的存在与活动性长期以来存在争议。本研究通过小多道地震探测技术,对苏北—滨海断裂北段及附近海域进行探测,识别出4个反射界面,将研究区第四纪地层划分为4个地震层序,分别对应全新世、晚更新世、中更新世和早更新世4个地质时期。对照区域地质构造,对地震剖面断点进行分析,认为断点F1、F2、F3、F4、F8、F9、F10对应为苏北—滨海断裂,断裂错动的最新地层为晚更新世,因此推断苏北—滨海断裂为晚更新世活动断裂。     

井中地震用于陆相储层分析的几项技术

中国陆相储层分布广泛，类型复杂，横向变化大，勘探开发成本高，进行储层分析要求采用高新技术和综合利用多种方法。本文总结了在我国几个油区进行陆相储层分析的几项地震技术即：垂直地震剖面（ＶＳＰ）技术，多偏移距和井间层析成象技术以及多参数分析和综合解释技术，在适应我国经济发展的水平和现状的条件下，用以解决我国复杂的陆相油气储层分析的问题。