SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

四川黑水锰矿床沉积环境的地球化学标志

含锰岩系不同地段的地球化学资料,可明显地反映不同地段的沉积地球化学环境和含矿性的差异.其效果和用传统的岩相古地理方法近似.但前者简单快速,并能反映岩相古地理方法所无法反映的微量元素局部变化地段.它给锰矿的成矿预测提供了更多的信息.     

南水北调东线水质污染和湖泊水生经济的系统分析

本文讨论了我国南水北调东线水质污染的产生及其对调水水质的影响,同时对调水区域内工业排水与治理经济模式和湖泊水生经济系统的最优化分析进行了探论.     

The FAST/SKA site selection in Guizhou province

Many karst depressions with diameters of 300 m to 500 m, suitable for constructing Arecibo-style radio telescopes, were identified in the south of Guizhou Province by Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies together with field investigations. Fundamental topography and landform databases were established for 391candidate depressions, and using GIS the3-dimensional images of depressions, at a scale of 1:10000, were then simulated to fit a spherical antenna. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Simulating Experiment in the Process of Soil Erosion on Bare Land in Mt. Tanakami

In order to understand the process of surface erosion and acquire basic data of conditions on hillslope without vege tation, a sprinkling experiment is conducted on a bare slope in Mt. Tanakami in the central part of Japan. Based on the mea surements of runoff, mean soil erosion depth, and sediment yield, etc. , the results suggest the following characteristics in the process of surface erosion in the experimental area. (1) The occurrence of sediment discharge is interrupted; (2) Surface runoff is a saturated overland flow; (3) The mean soil erosion depth is thick compared with other areas in Mt. Tanakami;(4) Sediment discharge process is detachment- limited.     

彗木碰撞期间3.6和12cm射电观测

本文介绍了1994年7月SL－9彗星撞击木星期间3．6cm和12cm射电连续谱观测的结果．在3．6cm波长上，撞击事件无明显的视效应，在12cm波长上，木星的射电平均视流量增加约20％．     

The Magnetic Topological Structure and Energy of the 2B/X2 Flare in NOAA 8100

In this paper, we reconstruct the finite energy force-free magnetic field of the active region NOAA 8100 on 4 November 1997 above the photosphere. In particular, the 3-D magnetic field structures before and after a 2B/X2 flare at 05:58 UT in this region are analyzed. The magnetic field lines were extrapolated in close coincidence with the Yohkoh soft X-ray (SXR) loops accordingly. It is found that the active region is composed of an emerging flux loop, a complex loop system with differential magnetic field shear, and large-scale, or open field lines. Similar magnetic connectivity has been obtained for both instants but apparent changes of the twisting situations of the calculated magnetic field lines can be observed that properly align with the corresponding SXR coronal loops. We conclude that this flare was triggered by the interaction of an emerging flux loop and a large loop system with differential magnetic field shear, as well as large-scale, or open field lines. The onset of the flare was at the common footpoints of several interacting magnetic loops and confined near the footpoints of the emerging flux loop. The sheared configuration remained even after the energetic flare, as demonstrated by calculated values of the twist for the loop system, which means that the active region was relaxed to a lower energy state but not completely to the minimum energy state (two days later another X-class flare occurred in this region).