武汉市日供水量与气象要素的相关分析

利用武汉市逐日供水量资料与温度、降水、日照等气象要素进行同步相关分析,选取相关性较高的气温作为预报因子,建立了日供水量的简易预测模型。     

FY2海面温度产品质量检验方法与误差分析

主要介绍了风云二号静止气象卫星海面温度产品的质量检验方法及检验流程,给出了FY2E业务海面温度产品和FY2F海面温度算法的质量检验结果,并从误差统计、反演算法、系统设计等方面分析了目前FY2海面温度产品与国外卫星海面温度产品差异大的原因。现场海面温度质量检验和分析场海面温度交叉检验各有优缺点。现场海面温度质量检验能够对FY2 SST产品给于客观的评价。国外分析场海面温度具有时效性好、全球覆盖且质量均一的优点,分析场海面温度交叉检验能满足FY2 SST质量检验的时效性,是对FY2 SST的相对检验。通过静止卫星海面温度产品质量检验信息可以为产品研发人员和相关用户提供参考。     

松花江、嫩江流域水资源形势分析

黑龙江省位于我国东北边疆地区,全省总面积 45.5万 km^2,属寒温带大陆季风区,年平均降水量 523.8mm,全省地表水资源量 655.83亿 m^3.人均占有水量 2074m^3,低于全国人均 2460m^3,居全国第 13位.亩均占有量 564m^3,低于全国亩均 1980m^3,居全国第 19位,可见水资源并不丰富.随着人口的增长,工农业不断发展,需水量逐年增加. 20世纪 80年代以来黑龙江气候变暖明显,蒸发量加大,连续干旱导致黑龙江水资源匮乏,松花江自 1998年以来连续 4、 5年枯水位,降到建国以来水位最低值,生活用水困难,航运中断,供需之间矛盾突出,水资源形势不容乐观.今后随着经济发展,工农业用水、河道内外用水与水资源之间矛盾会越来越突出.要求依法管好水、用好水,制定长运供需计划,提出水资源开发利用具体对策,以便供各级政府发展经济,规划蓝图作重要参考.文中水资源资料由文献和黑龙江省水文水资源勘测局提供.     

内伶仃岛及其附近海面低层大气的平均结构

本文综合分析了内伶仃岛低空温、风探测资料和海岛及其附近海面大气边界层的平均结构,讨论了海陆环流,并把实测风速廓线与理论计算结果进行了比较。      

珠江流域1961-2007年气候变化及2011-2060年预估分析

 根据珠江流域1961-2007年气温、降水量观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式2011-2060年预估结果,分析了流域过去47 a的气温和降水量变化,并预估未来50 a变化趋势。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,过去47 a温度呈上升趋势,约升高1.8℃。冬季增温最明显,夏季最弱。未来50 a流域温度仍呈上升趋势,A1B情景下升幅约1.9℃,并且年际变化增强。A2和B1两种排放情景下秋季升温最显著,冬季最弱,A1B排放情景与此相反。过去47 a秋季降水量呈减少趋势;春、夏、冬季和年降水量均呈增加趋势。未来50 a降水总体呈增加趋势,A1B排放情景降水增加最多,约为230 mm。A2、A1B和B1情景下降水季节分配未发生显著变化。年降水和冬季降水的年际变率增强,秋季减弱。     

2008年1月一次强雨雪过程的诊断分析

采用NCEP1°×1°客观再分析资料和常规观测资料,对2008年1月25—29日发生在长江中下游地区的强雨雪过程进行诊断分析,结果表明,低空急流与强雨雪有着密切关系,强雨雪的发生需具备一定的温度条件以及水汽场与动力场的耦合机制。对强雨雪过程的湿Q矢量诊断分析表明,700hPa湿Q矢量辐合区以及850hPa锋生函数正值区与强雨雪区对应较好,对雨雪天气的发生有着很好的指示意义。湿位涡特征分析表明,此次强雨雪过程发生在层结稳定的大气中且垂直涡度发展较强。     

Yangtze Delta floods and droughts of the last millennium: Abrupt changes and long term memory

Summary Climate variability and flood events in the Yangtze Delta, which is a low-lying terrain prone to flood hazards, storm tides and typhoons, are studied in terms of a trend and detrended fluctuation analysis of historical records. The data used in this paper were extracted from historical records such as local annuals and chronologies from 1000–1950 and supplemented by instrumental observations since 1950. The historical data includes frequencies of floods, droughts and maritime events on a decadal basis. Flood magnitudes increase during the transition from the medieval warm interval into the early Little Ice Age. Fluctuating climate changes of the Little Ice Age, which are characterised by arid climate events, are followed by wet and cold climate conditions with frequent flood hazards. For trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test is applied to determine the changing trends of flood and drought frequency. Flood frequency during 1000–1950 shows a negative trend before 1600 A.D. and a positive trend thereafter; drought frequency increases after 1300. The detrended fluctuation analysis of the flood and drought frequencies reveals power law scaling up to centuries; this is related to long-term memory and is similar to the river Nile floods.     

珠江三角洲城市群污染综合指数预报的模式方法

应用全二阶矩表示的商斯烟团模式,重点引入烟团的合并与分解及各种清除过程,并利用广州热带模式（GZTM）所提供的华南地区细网格的三维数字化流场,来计算污染物浓度的长期变化。具体先模拟计算SO2、NOx、TSP的地面浓度日变化,通过求平均得到每种污染物的日均浓度,并和对应的污染物的日均浓度二级标准比较,得到每种污染物的污染指数Pi,最后求和得出污染综合指数P,从而对珠江三角洲地区的污染综合指数作出预报。     

SVD方法在气象场诊断分析中的普适性

本文首次从理论上推导证明两个气象场的奇异值分解（ＳＶＤ）在气象场时空分布耦合信号的诊断分析中具有普适性。结果表明，两个场的ＳＶＤ求解准则不同于典型相关分析（ＣＣＡ），且ＣＣＡ模型可视为ＳＶＤ之特例，尤其当各个场经ＰＣＡ滤波后，其ＣＣＡ完全与ＳＶＤ等价。ＳＶＤ分析的结果不但可完全代替ＣＣＡ，且计算更简便，所得耦合信号的物理解释更清晰，特别适合于大尺度气象场的遥相关型研究。     

Statistical estimation of high-resolution surface air temperature from MODIS over the Yangtze River Delta,China

High-resolution surface air temperature data are critical to regional climate modeling in terms of energy balance, urban climate change, and so on. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) to estimate air temperature at a high resolution over the Yangtze River Delta region, China. It is found that daytime LST is highly correlated with maximum air temperature, and the linear regression coefficients vary with the type of land surface. The air temperature at a resolution of 1 km is estimated from the MODIS LST with linear regression models. The estimated air temperature shows a clear spatial structure of urban heat islands. Spatial patterns of LST and air temperature differences are detected, indicating maximum differences over urban and forest regions during summer. Validations are performed with independent data samples, demonstrating that the mean absolute error of the estimated air temperature is approximately 2.5°C, and the uncertainty is about 3.1°C, if using all valid LST data. The error is reduced by 0.4°C (15%) if using best-quality LST with errors of less than 1 K. The estimated high-resolution air temperature data have great potential to be used in validating high-resolution climate models and other regional applications.