Fingerprinting of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in climate models to aid in the design of proxy investigations

It is desirable to design proxy investigations that target regions where properties reconstructed from calibrated parameters potentially carry high-fidelity information concerning changes in large-scale climate systems. Numerical climate models can play an important role in this task, producing simulations that can be analyzed to produce spatial “fingerprints” of the expected response of various properties under a variety of different scenarios. We will introduce a new method of fingerprinting the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that not only provides information concerning the sensitivity of the response at a given location to changes in the large-scale system, but also quantifies the linearity, monotonicity and symmetry of the response. In this way, locations that show high sensitivities to changes in the AMOC, but that exhibit, for example, strongly nonlinear behavior can be avoided during proxy investigations. To demonstrate the proposed approach we will use the example of the response of seawater temperatures to changes in the strength of the AMOC. We present results from an earth-system climate model which has been perturbed with an idealized freshwater forcing scenario in order to reduce the strength of the AMOC in a systematic manner. The seawater temperature anomalies that result from the freshwater forcing are quantified in terms of their sensitivity to the AMOC strength in addition to the linearity and monotonicity of their response. A first-order reversal curve (FORC) approach is employed to investigate and quantify the irreversibility of the temperature response to a slowing and recovering AMOC. Thus, FORCs allow the identification of areas that are unsuitable for proxy reconstructions because their temperature versus AMOC relationship lacks symmetry.     

Class distribution and locality in rural areas: an example from Gloucestershire

The analysis of rural social change has reached a point of somewhat saturated orthodoxy. Numerous studies over the last 20 years have served to reinforce a standard view that it is the ‘newcomer vs local’ conflict which lies at the heart of social and cultural changes in rural communities. Moreover, these broad categorisations have often been translated into class terms without due regard for the detailed circumstances of locality or intra-class fractions. This paper presents some evidence from an intensive study of 10 parishes in rural Gloucestershire, and seeks to provide a detailed background to the distribution of selected indicators of social change in that area. It focuses on the diversions and needs experienced by different social groups and suggests additional complexities to those recognised in traditional treatments of rural conflict.     

Atmospheric effects from post-nuclear fires

During a large nuclear war, the atmosphere would be loaded with huge quantities of pollutants, which are produced by fires in urban and industrial centers, cultivated lands, forests and grasslands. Especially detrimental are the effects of light absorbing airborne particles. An analysis of the amounts of the various types of fuels which could burn in a nuclear war indicates that more than 10¹⁴ g of black smoke could be produced by fires started by the nuclear explosions. Due to this, the penetration of sunlight to the earth's surface would be reduced greatly over extended areas of the northern hemisphere, maybe even globally. This could temporarily cause extreme darkness in large areas in midlatitudes and reduce crop growth and biospheric productivity.This situation would last for several weeks and cause very anomalous meteorological conditions. Much solar radiation would be absorbed in the atmosphere instead of at the earth's surface. The land areas and lower atmosphere would, therefore, cool and the overlying atmosphere warm, creating strong vertical thermal stability in a highly polluted atmosphere. For extended periods and in large parts of the world, weather conditions would be abnormal. The resulting cold, probably freezing, temperatures at the ground would interfere severely with crop production during the growing season and cause extreme conditions for large sections of the biosphere. The combination of lack of sunlight, frost and other adverse meteorological conditions would add enormously to the already huge problems of the survivors.     

Climate change and coastal flooding in Metro Boston: impacts and adaptation strategies

Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will increase storm surge height along the 825 km long coastline of Metro Boston, USA. Land at risk consists of urban waterfront with piers and armoring, residential areas with and without seawalls and revetments, and undeveloped land with either rock coasts or gently sloping beachfront and low-lying coastal marshes. Risk-based analysis shows that the cumulative 100 year economic impacts on developed areas from increased storm surge flooding depend heavily upon the adaptation response, location, and estimated sea level rise. Generally it is found that it is advantageous to use expensive structural protection in areas that are highly developed and less structural approaches such as floodproofing and limiting or removing development in less developed or environmentally sensitive areas.     

Development of FBMINC model for particle diffusion in fluids

An accurate particle tracking method using FBMINC （new fractional Brownian motion） is outlined. It generates non-Fickian diffusion rather than Fickian diffusion as traditional particle tracking model does. The FBMINC model is based on fractional Brownian motion （fl3m） which is generalization of regular Brownian motion. The two models of fBms （FBM model and FBMINC model） were explored and the differences of the two models are compared from the three aspects： the standard deviation of each step, the small memory and the effect of the number of particles in the cloud. The results show the FBMINC model is a better model as it produces more accurate statistics. The effect of simple shear dispersion for both Brownian and fBm was investigated. The power law scaling of fBm shear dispersion was correctly identified. In addition, a scaling coettieient was found numerically. The FBMINC model is then used for producing both superdiffusive and subdiffusive particle paths, therefore, the non-Fickian diffusion of soil particle clouds can be modelled. The particle clouds represent soil contaminant are released in an idealised coastal bay and the fBm particle tracking method is used for simulation the particle cloud spreading in the bay. There is a noticeable increase in the spreading rate of the cloud. In addition, owning to the spreading rate of the cloud, a noticeable part of it has escaped the bay area and transported downstream. The variation of the Hurst exponent can lead to an area of the flow being affected by a contaminant cloud which is not picked up by the regular Brownian motion models. The purpose of this paper is to bring soil transport engineers a new angle on soil particle transport research in fluids. Using FBM1NC particle tracking model allows more flexibility in simulation of diffusion in soil contaminant spread in coastal bay or ocean surface.     

DETERMINANTS OF STRUCTURE IN AQUATIC NON-PELAGIC PROTOZOAN COMMUNITIES

Although microbes have traditionally been used as models for testing ecological theory, research on the organization of these communities has largely been isolated from other areas of community ecology. Early studies indicated that microbial populations can form dynamic, interacting assemblages. Observations of distributional patterns suggest that certain deterministic forces regulate community structure. It appears that protozoans are tolerant of a wide range of environmental conditions although evidence for this is largely based on gross environmental analyses. Laboratory studies have suggested the importance of negative and positive biotic interactions in determining community membership, but little field evidence for this exists. The importance of transport processes in controlling community composition is being increasingly recognized. All three types of processes likely act to regulate the colonization and successional dynamics of these communities. A simple model is presented to promote the devel     

Evidence of multiple evaporite recycling processes in a salt‐tectonic context,Sivas Basin,Turkey

The isotopic composition of evaporites can shed light on their environment of precipitation and their subsequent recycling processes. In this study, we performed Sr, O and S isotopic analyses on evaporitic sulphates in the halokinetic Sivas Basin. The main objectives were to decipher the age and origin of the evaporites responsible for the salt tectonics, and to test whether diapir dissolution acts as the source of younger evaporitic layers in continental mini‐basins. The Sr isotopes demonstrate that the first evaporites precipitated from seawater during the Middle–Late Eocene. The similar isotopic values measured in the halokinetic domain confirm that the Eocene evaporites triggered the salt tectonics and were continuously recycled in Oligo‐Miocene mini‐basins as lacustrine to sabkha evaporites. Modern halite precipitates suggest that the dissolution and recycling of diapiric halite is ongoing. This study demonstrates the efficiency of isotopic analyses in constraining evaporite recycling processes in continental halokinetic domains.