2004年夏季哈尔滨 5次短时强降水天气过程的对比分析

2004年夏季, 哈尔滨在 40d中发生了 5次短时强降水灾害,城市内涝严重,部分交通干线瘫痪.短时强降水天气多发生于中小尺度天气系统,空间尺度小,生命史短,预报难度大.虽然前人在此方面已做过大量工作,但在干旱的气候背景下,为什么频繁发生短时强降水天气,它们的共同特征是什么？本文从环流条件、卫星云图、多普勒雷达回波以及物理量场进行分析,对上述问题进行了探讨.     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

安徽凤阳和张八岭地区含金石英脉的40Ar/39Ar年龄及其地质意义

用快中子活化法测定了安徽凤阳和张八岭地区朱顶、毛山和上成3个金矿床第一阶段晚期和第二阶段的含金石英脉,石英的阶段加热40Ar/39Ar坪年龄值域为(116.1±0.6～118.3±0.5)Ma,分别与其最小视年龄和等时线年龄接近.坪年龄、最小视年龄和等时线年龄3种年龄值域为(113.4±0.4～118.3±0.5)Ma,可以作为石英的形成年龄域. 根据含金石英脉和围岩的空间关系,该年龄值域作为石英脉金矿的形成年龄是合理可靠的.金矿床形成于早白垩世阿普特期,与此时郯庐断裂带略带右行走滑正断层活动一致.     

A general model for estimating actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces

Based on energy balance equation and mass transfer equation, a general model to estimate actual evaporation from non-saturated surfaces was derived. Making use of two concepts, “relative evaporation” and “relative drying power”, a relationship was established to account for the departure from saturated conditions. Using this model, the actual evaporation (evapotranspiration) can be calculated without the need of potential evaporation estimation. Furthermore, the model requires only a few meteorological parameters that are readily and routinely obtainable at standard weather stations. Based on nearly 30 years data of 432 meteorological stations and 512 hydrological stations in China, in combined with GIS, nine typical river basins were selected. Using the data of the selected river basins, the model was tested. The results show that the actual evaporation rate can be estimated with an error of less than 10% in most areas of China, except few years in the Yellow River Basin.     

成都市农业区划与城市生态环境保护构想

扼要介绍了成都市区域土壤多目标地球化学调查的新近展，从地球化学和农业生态的角度论述了成都市农业区划发展构想，并探讨人工生态系统与城市生态环保建设的模式与构想建议。     

TDP-0844地震前兆数据综合采集器的研制

介绍了TDP—0844型地震前兆数据综合采集器采用的设计方案及工作原理，及各个功能模块的设计准则，并列出了采集器实现的功能。文章还给出了采集器的部分应用图例，证明该采集器能够满足地震前兆观测需要。     

Study of crustal structure with S—wave data from Maqen—Jingbian profile

2-D crustal velocity structure and vp/vs are obtained by processing and interpretation of S-wave data from Maqen-Jingbian deep seismic sounding(DSS)profile.The result shows that there exist obvious differences in 2-D S-wave velocity structure and vp/vs ratio structure along the profile.The S-wave velocities are low and vp/vs ration is high for the westem section of the profile and Haiyuan region,while they are normal for the middle and eastern sections.The changes in lithologic characters of two major anomalous zones are discussed according to lateral variation of S-wave velocity structure and vp/vs ratio structure.It is concluded that the development and occurrence of the Haiyuan strong earthquake is not only related to tectonic activities,but also to lithologic characters of the region.     

Re-discussion on the Jiaochang Arcuate Structure, Sichuan Province, and the Seismogenic Structure for Diexi Earthquake in 19331

The Jiaocbang arcuate structure is one of the numerous arcuate structural belts in Sichuan. The present paper gives a further argument about the characteristics of that arcuate structure and the new activity of the Songpinggou fault and affirms that the Songpinggou fault is an active fault in the Holocene epoch. The Diexi M7.5 earthquake took place in 1933 on the west wing of that arcuate structure, near the apex of the arc. Many authors have given quite different opinions about the genetic structure of that earthquake. The authors have made on-the-spot investigations time and again over recent years. Besides this, the authors have also further studied the shape of intensity contour lines, the distribution characteristics of ground surface seismic hazards, the left-lateral dislocation of buildings along the Songpinggou fault, the NWtrending ground fissures that developed on the ground surface after earthquake, and so on. On this basis, it is still considered that the seismogenic fault of the 1933 Diexi M7.5 earthquake was the Songpinggou fault on the west wing of the Jiaochang arcuate structure.     

按不同气候背景制作单站MOS预报方程

在基层业务体制的框架基本形成以后，县局在参考上级指导预报的同时，初步开展对单站数值预报模式的研究，注意中、小尺度天气的变化规律，以提高订正预报的精度。     

干旱对运城冬小麦的影响

0引言运城市地处φN34°35'至φN35°49'之间,属暖温带大陆性季风气候。基本气候特征是冬季气候干燥雨雪少,春季干旱风沙多,夏季炎热阵雨多,秋季凉爽有连阴。年降水量从东南往西北递减,山地多于丘陵,丘陵多于盆地。主要农作物以冬小麦为主,冬小麦的播种面积占耕地面积的60%以上,居所有农作物之首。影响本地冬小麦产量的主要气象灾害则是干旱。1降水量的时空分布运城市历年平均降水量为472mm至596.7mm,降水的时空分布为东南地区多于西北地区,山地、丘陵地带多于河滩地,其中垣曲、永济、平陆相对多为550mm以上;绛县、盐湖、芮城、闻喜、万荣…