Impacts of Coastal SST Variability on the East Asian Summer Monsoon

The impacts of the seasonal and interannual SST variability in the East Asia coastal regions （EACRSST） on the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） have been examined using a regional climate model （PδRCM9） in this paper. The simulation results show that the correlation between the EACRSST and the EASM is strengthened after the mid-1970s and also the variability of the EACRSST forcing becomes much more important to the EASM interannual variability after the mid-1970s. The impacts of the EACRSST on the summer precipitation over each sub-region in the EASM region become weak gradually from south to north, and the temporal evolution features of the summer precipitation differences over North and Northeast China agree well with those of the index of EASM （IEASM） differences.
The mechanism analyses show that different EACRSST forcings result in the differences of sensible and latent heat flux exchanges at the air-sea interface, which alter the heating rate of the atmosphere. The heating rate differences induce low level air temperature differences over East Asia, resulting in the differences of the land-sea thermal contrast （LSTC） which lead to 850 hPa geopotential height changes. When the 850 hPa geopotential height increases over the East Asian continent and decreases over the coast of East China and the adjacent oceans during the weakening period of weakens consequently. On the contrary, the EASM enhances during the strengthening period of the LSTC.     

Dislocating modernity: Identity, space and representations of street trade in Durban, South Africa

South Africa’s cities have experienced dramatic changes over the past decade. Cities are now home to a multiracial population, and have been transformed by new forms of economic and social interaction. For some, these changes have become a significant source of fear and anxiety. In this paper, we examine reactions to urban spatial change in the city of Durban, as expressed in local newspapers and interviews with suburban residents. We describe how the discourses of urban change in Durban have centred on the increased presence of street traders within the city’s public spaces, and the various ways in which the activity of street trade has disrupted long-established modernist norms governing the occupation and use of the urban space. Specifically, we offer a detailed reading of three prominent narratives within the discussion of street traders in Durban--chaos, congestion and pollution. We argue that street traders have come to embody a wide range of more deeply seated cultural anxieties, which have been brought to the fore in the context of South Africa’s transition. These anxieties arise from the ways in which modern understandings of order, agency and subjectivity have been called into question by material changes in the city, and have implications for the nature of citizenship and civic engagement in post-apartheid South Africa.     

The instability of a horizontal magnetic field in an atmosphere stable against convection

The theoretical problem posed by the buoyant escape of a magnetic field from the interior of a stably stratified body bears directly on the question of the present existence of primordial magnetic fields in stars. This paper treats the onset of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability of the upper boundary of a uniform horizontal magnetic field in a stably stratified atmosphere. The calculations are carried out in the Boussinesq approximation and show the rapid growth of the initial infinitesimal perturbation of the boundary. This result is in contrast to the extremely slow buoyant rise of a separate flux tube in the same atmosphere. Thus for instance, at a depth of 1/3R beneath the surface of the Sun, a field of 10² G develops ripples over a scale of 10³ km in a characteristic time of 50 years, whereas the characteristic rise time of the same field in separate flux tubes with the same dimensions is 10¹⁰ years. Thus, the development of irregularities proceeds quickly, soon slowing, however, to a very slow pace when the amplitude of the irregularities becomes significant. Altogether the calculations show the complexity of the question of the existence of remnant primordial magnetic fields in stellar interiors.This work was supported in part by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant NGL 14-001-001     

Studies on the Application of Steady State Assumption in 1DV Model for the Estimation of Settling Velocity of Suspended Sediments in a Shallow Estuary

Settling velocity is one of the important parameters in sediment transport modeling of estuaries. The methods adopted for its determination vary from theoretical equations to experimental methods. The theoretical equation generally adopted in the 1DV model include assumptions in order to simplify the solution. It is generally assumed that either the condition is steady or the vertical diffusion is negligible. This study evaluated the relative importance of the two assumptions made for the estimation of settling velocity. Two approaches were adopted: unsteady and negligible vertical diffusion (NS-NVD) and steady with vertical diffusion (S-VD) to estimate the settling velocity. The Muthupet Estuary in the Coromandal coast of India was selected for the study. The S-VD approach estimated settling velocity fairly well at the two locations with appreciable vertical diffusion. The NS-NVD approach was observed to be superior for estimating settling velocity at shallow reaches of the estuary having low flow velocity. The calculated settling velocity was further applied in 1DV model to predict the suspended sediment concentration. The S-VD approach predicted suspended sediment concentration at those locations with appreciable vertical diffusion with an R² value of 0.82 against 0.67 for the NS-NVD approach. At the other shallow reach of the estuary with low flow velocity, the NS-NVD approach gave an R² value of 0.822 against 0.71 for the S-VD approach. The vertical diffusion was observed to play a secondary role at those locations which are shallow with a water depth of 0.6 m and with a low flow velocity of the order of 0.01 m/s. The study demonstrated that localized hydrodynamic conditions influence the method adopted for the estimation of settling velocity.     

Weak velocity anomaly in the Earth’s outer core from seismic data

Experimental data on the differential travel time t _BC–t _DF of seismic waves PKP_DF and PKP_BC in the Earth’s core under Africa and Australia are analyzed. The differential travel-time residuals beneath Africa in a narrow range of angles from 21° to 25° between the direction of the seismic ray in the core and the Earth’s rotation axis exhibit a scoop-shaped peculiarity not accounted for by cylindrical anisotropy in the inner core. A model with a 0.2–0.8% P-wave velocity anomaly with a radius of 1375 km in the cylindrical region in the outer core is proposed, which closely fits the experimental data. We suggest that the velocity anomaly is generated by the dynamical processes occurring in the outer core, namely, the growth of the inner core and the convection in the outer core, both leading to the formation of a low-density anomaly in the outer core.     

On the importance of soil moisture in calibration of rainfall–runoff models: two case studies

Streamflow modelling results from the GR4H and PDM hydrological models were evaluated in two Australian sub-catchments, using (1) calibration to streamflow and (2) joint-calibration to streamflow and soil moisture. Soil moisture storage in the models was evaluated against soil moisture observations from field measurements. The PDM had the best performance in terms of both streamflow and soil moisture estimations during the calibration period, but was outperformed by GR4H during validation. It was also shown that the soil moisture estimation was improved significantly by joint-calibration for the case where streamflow and soil moisture estimations were poor. In other cases, addition of the soil moisture constraint did not degrade the results. Consequently, it is recommended that GR4H be used, in preference to the PDM, in the foothills of the Murrumbidgee catchment or other Australian catchments with semi-arid to sub-humid climate, and that soil moisture data be used in the calibration process.     

Interhemispheric Linkage of Paleoclimate During the Last Glaciation

Combined glacial geologic and palynologic data from the southern Lake District, Seno Reloncaví, and Isla Grande de Chiloé in middle latitudes (40°35’–42°25’S) of the Southern Hemisphere Andes suggest (1) that full-glacial or near-full-glacial climate conditions persisted from about 29,400 to 14,550 ¹⁴C yr BP in late Llanquihue time, (2) that within this late Llanquihue interval mean summer temperature was depressed 6°–8°C compared to modern values during major glacier advances into the outer moraine belt at 29,400, 26,760, 22,295–22,570, and 14,550–14,805 ¹⁴C yr BP , (3) that summer temperature depression was as great during early Llanquihue as during late Llanquihue time, (4) that climate deteriorated from warmer conditions during the early part to colder conditions during the later part of middle Llanquihue time, (5) that superimposed on long-term climate deterioration are Gramineae peaks on Isla Grande de Chiloé that represent cooling at 44,520–47,110 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-11), 32,105–35,764 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-9), 24,895–26,019 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-7), 21,430–22,774 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-5), and 13,040–15,200 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-3), (6) that the initial phase of the glacial/interglacial transition of the last termination involved at least two major steps, one beginning at 14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP and another at 12,700–13,000 ¹⁴ C yr BP , and (7) that a late-glacial climate reversal of ≥2–3° C set in close to 12,200 ¹⁴C yr BP , after an interval of near-interglacial warmth, and continued into Younger Dryas time. The late-glacial climate signal from the southern Chilean Lake District ties into that from proglacial Lago Mascardi in the nearby Argentine Andes, which shows rapid ice recession peaking at 12,400 ¹⁴C yr BP , followed by a reversal of trend that culminated in Younger-Dryas-age glacier readvance at 11,400–10,200 ¹⁴C yr BP . Many full- and late-glacial climate shifts in the southern Lake District match those from New Zealand at nearly the same Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes. At the last glacial maximum (LGM), snowline lowering relative to present-day values was nearly the same in the Southern Alps (875 m) and the Chilean Andes (1000 m). Particularly noteworthy are the new Younger-Dryas-age exposure dates of the Lake Misery moraines in Arthur's Pass in the Southern Alps. Moreover, pollen records from the Waikato lowlands on North Island show that a major vegetation shift at close to 14,700 ¹⁴C yr BP marked the beginning of the last glacial/interglacial transition (Newnham et al. 1989). The synchronous and nearly uniform lowering of snowlines in Southern Hemisphere middle-latitude mountains compared with Northern Hemisphere values suggests global cooling of about the same magnitude in both hemispheres at the LGM. When compared with paleoclimate records from the North Atlantic region, the middle-latitude Southern Hemisphere terrestrial data imply interhemispheric symmetry of the structure and timing of the last glacial/interglacial transition. In both regions atmospheric warming pulses are implicated near the beginning of Oldest Dryas time (～14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP) and near the Oldest Dryas/Bölling transition (～12,700–13,000 ¹⁴ C yr BP ). The second of these warming pulses was coincident with resumption of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation similar to that of the modern mode, with strong formation of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water in the Nordic Seas. In both regions, the maximum Bölling-age warmth was achieved at 12,200–12,500 ¹⁴ C yr BP , and was followed by a reversal in climate trend. In the North Atlantic region, and possibly in middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, this reversal culminated in a Younger-Dryas-age cold pulse. Although changes in ocean circulation can redistribute heat between the hemispheres, they cannot alone account either for the synchronous planetary cooling of the LGM or for the synchronous interhemispheric warming steps of the abrupt glacial-to-interglacial transition. Instead, the dominant interhemispheric climate linkage must feature a global atmospheric signal. The most likely source of this signal is a change in the greenhouse content of the atmosphere. We speculate that the Oldest Dryas warming pulse originated from an increase in atmospheric water-vapor production by half-precession forcing in the tropics. The major thermohaline switch near the Oldest Dryas/Bölling transition then couldhave triggered another increase in tropical water-vapor production to near-interglacial values.     

The origin of pseudoleucite in tinguaite,Ghori, India: a Re-evaluation

Pseudoleucite occurs as large megacrysts (giant phenocrysts) in tinguaite at Ghori which is located in the Panwad-Kawant carbonatite-alkalic complex, India. In thin sections the pseudoleucite crystals show mainly an oriented intergrowth of nepheline and orthoclase with additional minerals phases such as white mica, analcime, sodalite and cancrinite. From mineralogy and geochemistry it is inferred that the scheme involving subsolidus breakdown of leucite and subsequent reaction with Na-rich fluids can satisfactorily explain origin of pseudoleucite crystals in tinguaites.     

aiNet- and GIS-based regional prediction system for the spatial and temporal probability of rainfall-triggered landslides

We developed a real-time forecasting system, aiNet-GISPSRIL, for evaluating the spatiotemporal probability of occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides. In this system, the aiNet (a kind of artificial neutral network based on a self-organizing system) and GIS are merged for integrating the rainfall conditions into various environmental factors that influence the landslide occurrence and for simulating the complex non-linear relationships between landslide occurrence and its related conditions. Zhejiang Province (101,800 km² in area), located in the southeast coastal region of China, is highly prone to the occurrence of landslides during intensive rainfall. Since 2003, the aiNet-GISPSRIL has been used to predict landslides during the rainy seasons in the region. The aiNet-GISPSRIL uses the regional 24-h forecast rainfall information and the real-time rainfall monitoring data from the rain-gauge network as its inputs, and then provides 24-h forecast of the landslide probability for every 1 × 1-km grid cell within the region. Verification studies on the performance of the aiNet-GISPSRIL show that the system has successfully predicted the dates and localities of 304 landslides (accounting for 66.2% of reported landslides during the period). During the period from 2003 to 2007, because the system provided the probability levels of landslide occurrences up to 24-h in advance, gave locations of potential landslides, and timely warned those individuals at high-risk areas, more than 1700 persons living in the risk sites had been evacuated to safe ground before the landslides occurred and thus casualty was avoided. This highly computerized, easy-operating system can be used as a prototype for developing forecasting systems in other regions that are prone to rainfall-triggered landslides.     

The effects of source size on concentration fluctuations in plumes

The effects of source size on plume behaviour have been examined in a 1.2 m wind tunnel boundary layer for isokinetic sources with diameters from 3 to 35 mm at source heights of 230 mm and at ground level. Experimental measurements of mean concentration and the variance, intermittency and probability density functions of the concentration fluctuations were obtained. In addition, a fluctuating Gaussian plume model is presented which reproduces many of the observed features of the elevated emission. The mean plume width becomes independent of source size much more rapidly than the instantaneous plume width. Since it is the meandering of the instantaneous plume which generates most of the concentration fluctuations near the source, these are also dependent on source size. The flux of variance in the plume reaches a maximum, whose value is greatest for the smallest source size, close to the source and thereafter is monotonically decreasing. The intermittency factor reaches a minimum, whose value is lowest for the smallest source, and increases back towards one. Concentration fluctuations for the ground-level source are much less dependent on source size due to the effects of the surface.