新加坡中国大陆新移民现状浅析

在日益全球化的今天,国际移民活动正以前所未有的规模进行着,其原因主要是地区经济发展不平衡导致发展中国家的人口大量移居发达国家。源自中国大陆的新移民是国际移民的一个重要组成部分。据估计,20世纪70年代中期至90年代中期华人新移民的人数至少在240万以上,其中源自大陆的     

高校公共体育课“2S”教学理念的提出与实施

依据“健康第一”、“以人为本”的理念,结合体育教学基本理论,针对我国大学生体质健康状况急剧下降的严峻形式,创造性地提出高校公共体育“2S”教学理念,强调“微笑”与“出汗”的相互融合。该教学理念重视快乐体育教学模式、成功体育教育模式的价值,突出教学内容专项化,教学过程的科学负荷,教学方法的多样化,强调教学组织以学生为主体,教学评价重视过程评价。     

医教结合：实践、争议与问题

目前我国特殊教育学校学生残障程度趋重,残障类型、教康需求日趋多样化。我国在不断的探索中形成符合自身特点的教育和康复的整合模式———医教结合,并在医教结合的实践中取得一定成果。但目前国内不仅对医教结合内涵、过程等方面未达成一致观点,学者们在其他一些问题上也存在争议。医教结合推进过程中,适用对象、学校教师、理论本身、政策制定方面存在的问题,仍需各方共同努力去解决,研究完善医教结合的理论与政策,促进特殊教育医教结合的发展。     

Estimation of the joint survival function for successive duration times under double-truncation and right-censoring

ABSTRACT

In incident cohort studies, survival data often include subjects who have had an initiate event at recruitment and may potentially experience two successive events (first and second) during the follow-up period. When disease registries or surveillance systems collect data based on incidence occurring within a specific calendar time interval, the initial event is usually subject to double truncation. Furthermore, since the second duration process is observable only if the first event has occurred, double truncation and dependent censoring arise. In this article, under the two sampling biases with an unspecified distribution of truncation variables, we propose a nonparametric estimator of the joint survival function of two successive duration times using the inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) approach. The consistency of the proposed estimator is established. Based on the estimated marginal survival functions, we also propose a two-stage estimation procedure for estimating the parameters of copula model. The bootstrap method is used to construct confidence interval. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed estimation approaches perform well with moderate sample sizes.     

对天津滨海新区服务业发展的几点思考

服务业的发展水平是衡量一个城市(地区)产业结构完善程度的重要标志,是城市凝聚力和辐射力的主要体现.滨海新区必须在发展现代制造业的同时,加快发展高层次的现代服务业,坚持以功能拓展促进服务业发展,以产业发展提升城市功能,提高现代服务业对经济增长的贡献率.     

Construction of Confidence Intervals for the IVIean of a Population Containing Many Zero Values

The likelihood ratio method is used to construct a confidence interval for a population mean when sampling from a population with certain characteristics found in many applications, such as auditing. Specifically, a sample taken from this type of population usually consists of a very large number of zero values, plus a small number of nonzero values that follow some continuous distribution. In this situation, the traditional confidence interval constructed for the population mean is known to be unreliable. This article derives confidence intervals based on the likelihood-ratio-test approach by assuming (1) a normal distribution (normal algorithm) and (2) an exponential distribution (exponential algorithm). Because the error population distribution is usually unknown, it is important to study the robustness of the proposed procedures. We perform an extensive simulation study to compare the percentage of confidence intervals containing the true population mean using the two proposed algorithms with the percentage obtained from the traditional method based on the central limit theorem. It is shown that the normal algorithm is the most robust procedure against many different distributional error assumptions.     

山西黄土CBR的影响分析

在山西省选取5种典型黄土，采用室内试验方法，制备不同击实次数，不同含水量的试件用于CBR值的测定，分析含水量和压实度对黄土填料CBR值的影响，并建立了CBR与含水量的相关关系式。试验结果表明：含水量对CBR值的影响程度最大，在最佳含水量，最大压实度条件下的CBR值最大，含水量越大，击实次数对CBR值的提高效果甚微。随着击实次数的增大，浸水 CBR和不浸水CBR与含水量的相关关系都呈现一定的规律性。     

A Novel Human Error Probability Assessment Using Fuzzy Modeling

Human error is one of the significant factors contributing to accidents. Traditional human error probability (HEP) studies based on fuzzy number concepts are one of the contributions addressing such a problem. It is particularly useful under circumstances where the lack of data exists. However, the degree of the discriminability of such studies may be questioned when applied under circumstances where experts have adequate information and specific values can be determined in the abscissa of the membership function of linguistic terms, that is, the fuzzy data of each scenario considered are close to each other. In this article, a novel HEP assessment aimed at solving such a difficulty is proposed. Under the framework, the fuzzy data are equipped with linguistic terms and membership values. By establishing a rule base for data combination, followed by the defuzzification and HEP transformation processes, the HEP results can be acquired. The methodology is first examined using a test case consisting of three different scenarios of which the fuzzy data are close to each other. The results generated are compared with the outcomes produced from the traditional fuzzy HEP studies using the same test case. It is concluded that the methodology proposed in this study has a higher degree of the discriminability and is capable of providing more reasonable results. Furthermore, in situations where the lack of data exists, the proposed approach is also capable of providing the range of the HEP results based on different risk viewpoints arbitrarily established as illustrated using a real‐world example.     

金融危机下外资银行对我国金融业的影响分析

一、当前金融危机对我国金融业的启示 全球性金融危机使许多国家经济遭受重创，各国金融机构所受冲击更大。同时．旧的国际金融秩序被打破，新的国际金融体系正在建立。在这样的大背景下．我国金融业发展也不可能“独善其身”。改革开放以来．我国金融业不断融入世界金融体系．不可避免地面临全球金融环境变化的影响。但从总体发展看．推动我国金融业发展的动力仍然十分强劲．行业增长趋势不会改变。     

基于Gabor变换的信号降噪方法

介绍了Gabor变换的基本理论，提出了一种基于Gabor变换的降噪方法。该方法首先对信号进行Gabor变换，并选择合适的阈值对Gabor展开系数进行处理，然后对处理后的Gabor展开系数进行Gabor逆变换，从而实现降噪。仿真结果表明，该方法具有很好的降噪效果，为机械故障诊断提供了一种新的思路。