Demographic changes in East European countries and Russia

The authors outline demographic trends in Eastern Europe and Russia since 1970. Aspects considered include population size, birth rate and number of births, marriage and divorce, death rate, infant mortality, natural increase, sex ratio, and life expectancy.     

Origins and destinies: Immigration to the United States since World War II

Contemporary immigration to the United States and the formation of new ethnic groups are the complex and unintended social consequences of the expansion of the nation to its post-World War II position of global hegemony. Immigrant communities in the United States today are related to a history of American military, political, economic, and cultural involvement and intervention in the sending countries, especially in Asia and the Caribbean Basin, and to the linkages that are formed in the process that open a variety of legal and illegal migration pathways. The 19.8 million foreign-born persons counted in the 1990 U.S. census formed the largest immigrant population in the world, though in relative terms, only 7.9% of the U.S. population was foreign-born, a lower proportion than earlier in this century. Today's immigrants are extraordinarily diverse, a reflection of polar-opposite types of migrations embedded in very different historical and structural contexts. Also, unlike the expanding economy that absorbed earlier flows from Europe, since the 1970s new immigrants have entered an hourglass economy with reduced opportunities for social mobility, particularly among the less educated, and new waves of refugees have entered a welfare state with expanded opportunities for public assistance. This paper seeks to make sense of the new diversity. A typology of contemporary immigrants is presented, and their patterns of settlement, their distinctive social and economic characteristics compared to major native-born racial-ethnic groups, and their different modes of incorporation in—and consequences for—American society are considered.     

The print media and aging policy: how differential coverage of Medicare Catastrophic led congress astray

This article examines the role of the print media in covering complex policy issues. Two models of journalism are considered. "Pack journalism" predicts that print media coverage will be highly consistent in content due to the reliance by those in the media on the same sources of information. In this article, another model--"Beltway journalism"--is proposed. It implies that coverage by the print media indigenous to the Washington, D.C. area (inside the Beltway) will diverge from that of other print media, presenting a potentially distorted view of the world to policymakers in Washington. Using the Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times as possible indicators of the two models, aging policy is addressed through a case study of newspaper coverage during passage and repeal of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act of 1988. Findings suggest that Congress was unduly influenced by the way that Medicare Catastrophic was framed in the Washington Post, lending credence to the Beltway journalism model. By paying insufficient attention to the way Medicare Catastrophic was being framed by sources of print outside the Beltway area, lawmakers allowed themselves to assume a grassroots-level understanding of the issue and support for the bill, both of which turned out to be illusory.     

Non-profit institutions in a flow of funds framework

The benefits of providing a separate accounting for non-profit organisations in the financial accounts of the United States are discussed. At present, national economic accounts in the US include non-profit organisations with individuals in the household sector; separate information on the financial activity of non-profit institutions until now has not been available. In this paper, aggregate statistics from federal government tax-exempt filings for non-profit institutions are put into a US flow-of-funds framework. The data for the 1982–1988 period indicate that non-profit institutions accounted for a significant and growing proportion of assets of the household sector in the United States. Their liabilities were also a surprisingly large share of the household sector total. Moreover, funds supplied by the non-profit sector for investment were in some years comparable to funds made available by several important groups of non-depository financial intermediaries. Separate accounting for non-profit organisations within national economic accounts would be likely to reveal an important channel for investment financing in the United States and would significantly improve our ability to measure and analyse the financial activity of individuals by allowing for a purer household sector.The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not necessarily indicate concurrence by Salomon Brothers, the Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Banks or other members of their staffs.     

Parametric link modification of both tails in binary regression

Common binary regression models such as logistic or probit regression have been extended to include parametric link transformation families. These binary regression models with parametric link are designed to avoid possible link misspecification and improve fit in some data sets. One and two parameter link families have been proposed in the literature (for a review see Stukel (1988)). However in real data examples published so far only one parameter link families have found to improve the fit significantly. This paper introduces a two parameter link family involving the modification of both tails of the link. An analysis based on computationally tractable Bayesian inference involving Monte Carlo sampling algorithms is presented extending earlier work of Czado (1992, 1993b). Finally, the usefulness of the two tailed link modification will be demonstrated in an example where single tail modification can be significantly improved upon by using a two tailed modification.     

Application of Stein-type estimation in combining regression estimates from replicated experiments

This paper considers the application of Stein-type estimation procedure for the coefficients in a linear regression model when data are available from replicated experiment. Two families of estimators characterized by a single scalar are proposed and their large sample asymptotic properties are derived. These are utilized for comparing the performances of the two estimators along with the conventional estimator and conditions for the superiority of one estimator over the other are deduced.     

The household structure of second-generation children: an exploratory study of extended family arrangements

"Using data from the Children of Immigrants Survey, the antecedents of extended family arrangements among [U.S.] immigrant households with children are examined. The incidence and form of such arrangements, especially the presence of grandparents, are analyzed in relation to single parenthood, national origin, cultural assimilation, and socioeconomic variables. The findings serve to underscore the complexity of the correlates of extended family arrangements. While there is a relationship with single parenthood, more research is needed on the economic basis for the presence of relatives in the household. The analysis uncovered the need to also treat presence of grandparents as an independent variable, especially in the cultural assimilation of children of immigrants."     

Today's second generation: evidence from the 1990 U.S. census

"The prospects for today's second generation will be considerably shaped by their current social, economic and demographic status. This article provides a statistical portrait of children of immigrants by analyzing data from the 1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing. With the second generation defined as children under age 18 with at least one foreign-born parent, the study describes place of residence; household demographic, social and economic circumstances; household head's socioeconomic status; and characteristics of children themselves. Data on second-generation children are broken down by year of immigration of parents and child's nativity. Data for children with native-born parents are provided for comparison."     

Ropes course training for youth in a rural setting: “At first I thought it was going to be boring ...”

Outdoor structured activities, such as Ropes Challenge Courses, are typically utilized as interventions for youth coming from urban settings. Evaluation of such programs is scanty at best. In this instance, the course experience is used as a prevention tool for high risk youth in a remote, rural setting of high unemployment, alcohol problems, and low income. The authors discuss the effectiveness of this approach, and the intended and unintended consequences for the rural community at large. The evaluation design relies on extensive qualitative methodology as well as quantitative methods to capture the unique nature of this rural project.     

The model of place utility revisited

"The purpose of this paper...is twofold: first, to specify a way of calculating place utility so that potential migrants could move to the place where overall place utility is maximized; and second, which is more important, to reveal how decision-makers in the real world, who are acting within 'bounded rationalities'...,make their decisions on where to migrate. This study is supported by an empirical survey of recent Chinese immigrants to Edmonton [Canada].... The findings reveal that when people evaluate different places, they do not necessarily look for the one that generates the highest overall value or utility across all properties.... The study further indicates that the assumption underlying most microeconomic models (that maximizing utility or benefit is the ultimate rule for choosing one location out of several) has not been verified." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)