Water quality trends in the Delaware River Basin (USA) from 1980 to 2005

In 1940, the tidal Delaware River was ??one of the most grossly polluted areas in the United States.?? During the 1950s, water quality was so poor along the river at Philadelphia that zero oxygen levels prevented migration of American shad leading to near extirpation of the species. Since then, water quality in the Delaware Basin has improved with implementation of the 1961 Delaware River Basin Compact and 1970s Federal Clean Water Act Amendments. At 15 gages along the Delaware River and major tributaries between 1980 and 2005, water quality for dissolved oxygen, phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment improved at 39%, remained constant at 51%, and degraded at 10% of the stations. Since 1980, improved water-quality stations outnumbered degraded stations by a 4 to 1 margin. Water quality remains good in the nontidal river above Trenton and, while improved, remains fair to poor for phosphorus and nitrogen in the tidal estuary near Philadelphia and in the Lehigh and Schuylkill tributaries. Water quality is good in heavily forested watersheds (>50%) and poor in highly cultivated watersheds. Water quality recovery in the Delaware Basin is coincident with implementation of environmental laws enacted in the 1960s and 1970s and is congruent with return of striped bass, shad, blue crab, and bald eagle populations.     

A comparison of X-ray fluorescence and wet chemical analysis of air filter samples from a scrap lead smelting operation

Personal and area air samples were taken at a scrap lead smelter operation in a bullet manufacturing facility. Samples were taken using the 37-mm styrene-acrylonitrile closed-face filter cassette (CFC, the current US standard device for lead sampling), the 37-mm GSP or "cone" sampler, the 25-mm Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) inhalable sampler, and the 25-mm Button sampler (developed at the University of Cincinnati). Polyvinylchloride filters were used for sampling. The filters were pre- and post-weighed, and analyzed for lead content using a field-portable X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyzer. The filters were then extracted with dilute nitric acid in an ultrasonic extraction bath and the solutions were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy. The 25-mm filters were analyzed using a single XRF reading, while three readings on different parts of the filter were taken from the 37-mm filters. The single reading from the 25-mm filters was adjusted for the nominal area of the filter to obtain the mass loading, while the three readings from the 37-mm filters were inserted into two different algorithms for calculating the mass loadings, and the algorithms were compared. The IOM sampler was designed for material collected in the body of the sampler to be part of the collected sample as well as that on the filter. Therefore, the IOM sampler cassettes were rinsed separately to determine if wall-loss corrections were necessary. All four samplers gave very good correlations between the two analytical methods above the limit of detection of the XRF procedure. The limit of detection for the 25-mm filters (5 microg) was lower than for the 37-mm filters (10 microg). The percentage of XRF results that were within 25% of the corresponding ICP results was evaluated. In addition, the bias from linear regression was estimated. Linear regression for the Button sampler and the IOM sampler using single readings and the GSP using all tested techniques for total filter loading gave acceptable XRF readings at loadings equivalent to sampling at the OSHA 8-hour Action Level and Permissible Exposure Limit. However, the CFC only had acceptable results when the center reading corrected for filter area was used, which was surprising, and may be a result of a limited data set. In addition to linear regression, simple estimation of bias indicated reasonable agreements between XRF and ICP results for single XRF readings on the Button sampler filters, (82% of the individual results within criterion), and on the IOM sampler filters (77% or 61%--see text), and on the GSP sampler filters using the OSHA algorithm (78%). As a result of this pilot project, all three samplers were considered suitable for inclusion in further field research studies.     

Atmospheric influences on water quality: a simulation of nutrient loading for the Pearl River Basin, USA

Knowledge of water quality conditions is essential in assessing the health of riverine ecosystems. The goal of this study is to determine the degree to which water quality variables are related to precipitation and air temperature conditions for a segment of the Pearl River Basin near Bogalusa, LA, USA. The AQUATOX ecological fate simulation model is used to estimate daily total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved oxygen concentrations over a 2-year period. Daily modeled output for each variable was calibrated against reliably measured data to assess the accuracy. Observed data were plotted against simulated data for controlled and perturbed models for validation, and stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to quantify the relationships between the water quality and meteorological variables. Results suggest that daily dissolved oxygen is significantly negatively correlated to concurrent daily mean air temperature with a total explained variance of 0.679 (p?<?0.01), and monthly dissolved oxygen is significantly negatively correlated to monthly mean air temperature with a total explained variance of 0.567 (p?<?0.01). Total mean monthly phosphorus concentration is significantly positively related to the previous month's precipitation with a total explained variance of 0.302 (p?<?0.01). These relationships suggest that atmospheric conditions have a strong influence on water quality in the Pearl Basin. Therefore, environmental planners should expect that future climatic changes are likely to alter water quality.     

Trophic structure of coastal Antarctic food webs associated with changes in sea ice and food supply

Predicting the dynamics of ecosystems requires an understanding of how trophic interactions respond to environmental change. In Antarctic marine ecosystems, food web dynamics are inextricably linked to sea ice conditions that affect the nature and magnitude of primary food sources available to higher trophic levels. Recent attention on the changing sea ice conditions in polar seas highlights the need to better understand how marine food webs respond to changes in such broad-scale environmental drivers. This study investigated the importance of sea ice and advected primary food sources to the structure of benthic food webs in coastal Antarctica. We compared the isotopic composition of several seafloor taxa (including primary producers and invertebrates with a variety of feeding modes) that are widely distributed in the Antarctic. We assessed shifts in the trophic role of numerically dominant benthic omnivores at five coastal Ross Sea locations. These locations vary in primary productivity and food availability, due to their different levels of sea ice cover, and proximity to polynyas and advected primary production. The delta15N signatures and isotope mixing model results for the bivalves Laternula elliptica and Adamussium colbecki and the urchin Sterechinus neumeyeri indicate a shift from consumption of a higher proportion of detritus at locations with more permanent sea ice in the south to more freshly produced algal material associated with proximity to ice-free water in the north and east. The detrital pathways utilized by many benthic species may act to dampen the impacts of large seasonal fluctuations in the availability of primary production. The limiting relationship between sea ice distribution and in situ primary productivity emphasizes the role of connectivity and spatial subsidies of organic matter in fueling the food web. Our results begin to provide a basis for predicting how benthic ecosystems will respond to changes in sea ice persistence and extent along environmental gradients in the high Antarctic.     

Amphibian Declines: Judging Stability, Persistence, and Susceptibility of Populations to Local and Global Extinctions

Extinctions are normal biological phenomena. Both mass extinctions in geological time and local extinctions in ecological time are well documented, but rates of extinction have increased in recent years—especially in vertebrates, including amphibians—as illustrated by recent reports of their population declines and range reductions. We suggest that long-term population data are necessary for rigorously evaluating the significance of the amphibian declines. Due to the physiological constraints, relatively low mobility, and site fidelity of amphibians, we suggest that many amphibian populations may be unable to recolonize areas after local extinction.     

State subsidies induce gray jays to accept greater danger: an ecologically rational response?

Models of strictly rational choice assume that decision-makers evaluate options on relevant dimensions, assign fixed values to options, and then make consistent choices based on these values. If so, recent experience would have no impact on preference. But, recent events change an animal’s state, and preference may change accordingly. We explore how state affects willingness to accept greater danger to obtain larger food rewards. We tested how a supplement in state (hoard size) impacts this willingness in gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis). When subsidized, most of the subjects increased their willingness to trade danger for food. Why would they become less cautious when their hoard was increased? Superficially, it might seem prudent to play it safer in response to a subsidy. But imagining fitness as a sigmoid function of state (hoard size) provides a tentative explanation for our counterintuitive finding. Above a threshold hoard size, a subsidy should weaken the willingness to accept extra danger. Incremental increases in state in the deceleratory phase yield smaller fitness gains, so it would pay to increase emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. But below this threshold, incremental increases in state in the acceleratory phase yield bigger fitness gains, and so it would pay to decrease emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. Most of our subjects’ choice behavior was, thus, plausibly consistent with the possibility that effective hoard size is considerably smaller than the total number of items stored. We speculate that this response may reflect an ecologically rational compensation for the inevitable loss of hoards via theft and rot.     

A hierarchical model for spatial capture-recapture data

Estimating density is a fundamental objective of many animal population studies. Application of methods for estimating population size from ostensibly closed populations is widespread, but ineffective for estimating absolute density because most populations are subject to short-term movements or so-called temporary emigration. This phenomenon invalidates the resulting estimates because the effective sample area is unknown. A number of methods involving the adjustment of estimates based on heuristic considerations are in widespread use. In this paper, a hierarchical model of spatially indexed capture-recapture data is proposed for sampling based on area searches of spatial sample units subject to uniform sampling intensity. The hierarchical model contains explicit models for the distribution of individuals and their movements, in addition to an observation model that is conditional on the location of individuals during sampling. Bayesian analysis of the hierarchical model is achieved by the use of data augmentation, which allows for a straightforward implementation in the freely available software WinBUGS. We present results of a simulation study that was carried out to evaluate the operating characteristics of the Bayesian estimator under variable densities and movement patterns of individuals. An application of the model is presented for survey data on the flat-tailed horned lizard (Phrynosoma mcallii) in Arizona, USA.     

Consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of predators on metacommunities of competing prey

Although predators affect prey both via consumption and by changing prey migration behavior, the interplay between these two effects is rarely incorporated into spatial models of predator-prey dynamics and competition among prey. We develop a model where generalist predators have consumptive effects (i.e., altering the likelihood of local prey extinction) as well as nonconsumptive effects (altering the likelihood of colonization) on spatially separated prey populations (metapopulations). We then extend this model to explore the effects of predators on competition among prey. We find that generalist predators can promote persistence of prey metapopulations by promoting prey colonization, but predators can also hasten system-wide extinction by either increasing local extinction or reducing prey migration. By altering rates of prey migration, predators in one location can exert remote control over prey dynamics in another location via predator-mediated changes in prey flux. Thus, the effect of predators may extend well beyond the proportion of patches they visit. In the context of prey metacommunities, predator-mediated shifts in prey migration and mortality can shift the competition-colonization trade-off among competing prey, leading to changes in the prey community as well as changes in the susceptibility of prey species to habitat loss. Consequently, native prey communities may be susceptible to invasion not only by exotic prey species that experience reduced amounts of mortality from resident predators, but also by exotic prey species that exhibit strong dispersal in response to generalist native predators. Ultimately, our work suggests that the consumptive and nonconsumptive effects of generalist predators may have strong, yet potentially cryptic, effects on competing prey capable of mediating coexistence, fostering invasion, and interacting with anthropogenic habitat alteration.     

A dynamic model for intertemporal allocation of old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest

Across the globe, continued policy debates regarding the management of old-growth forests center around the difficult task of balancing economic and ecological considerations. Though the forests of the Pacific Northwest United States are among the most studied old-growth ecosystems, ecological and economic analyses have yielded public land management directives that remain controversial. Specifically, the recently adopted Northwest Forest Plan lacks explicit goals for maintaining intergenerational equity for the use of forest resources and the diversity of old-growth ecosystems. Unlike previous studies which rely on monetary quantification of costs and benefits, this study develops and applies a conceptual framework for evaluating socially optimal Pacific Northwest old-growth forest utilization strategies. Conditions for the optimal management of old-growth forests are derived using dynamic programming. The objective function synthesizes relevant biological and economic attributes of the old-growth allocation problem. Results in the form of extraction paths are compared given social pressure for consumptive and non-consumptive benefits, as well as different planning horizons, rates of social time preference, and environmental variance. Lengthening the planning horizon results in a vast divergence of optimal policies in the absence of discounting. Extraction rates appear to approach zero as the planning horizon approaches infinity. While higher rates of social time preference increase the rate of extraction, forest stocks remaining at the terminal time period equal levels remaining with a lower discount rate. Increasing environmental variance results in a higher level of stock remaining at the terminal time period. This analysis, while specific to the old-growth controversy of the Pacific Northwest, does provide general guidelines for addressing similar problems of multiple uses of natural areas, particularly where such uses are mutually incompatible, or where one use may be irreversibly destructive to another.