Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of censored microbiological contamination data for use in risk assessment and mitigation

Microbiological contamination data often is censored because of the presence of non-detects or because measurement outcomes are known only to be smaller than, greater than, or between certain boundary values imposed by the laboratory procedures. Therefore, it is not straightforward to fit distributions that summarize contamination data for use in quantitative microbiological risk assessment, especially when variability and uncertainty are to be characterized separately. In this paper, distributions are fit using Bayesian analysis, and results are compared to results obtained with a methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation and the non-parametric bootstrap method. The Bayesian model is also extended hierarchically to estimate the effects of the individual elements of a covariate such as, for example, on a national level, the food processing company where the analyzed food samples were processed, or, on an international level, the geographical origin of contamination data. Including this extra information allows a risk assessor to differentiate between several scenario’s and increase the specificity of the estimate of risk of illness, or compare different scenario’s to each other. Furthermore, inference is made on the predictive importance of several different covariates while taking into account uncertainty, allowing to indicate which covariates are influential factors determining contamination.     

Review: norovirus prevalence in Belgian, Canadian and French fresh produce: a threat to human health?

Foodborne viruses, especially noroviruses (NoV), are increasingly reported as the cause of foodborne outbreaks. NoV outbreaks have been reported linked to fresh soft red fruits and leafy greens. Belgium, Canada and France were the first countries to provide data about the prevalence of NoV on fresh produce. In total, 867 samples of leafy greens, 180 samples of fresh soft red fruits and 57 samples of other types of fresh produce (tomatoes, cucumber and fruit salads) were analyzed. Firstly, the NoV detection methodology, including virus and RNA extraction, real-time RT-PCR and quality controls were compared among the three countries. In addition, confirmation and genotyping of the NoV strains was attempted for a subset of NoV positive samples using conventional RT-PCR targeting an alternative region followed by sequencing. Analysis of the process control showed that 653, 179 and 18 samples of the leafy greens, soft red fruits and other fresh produce types were valid for analysis based on the recovery of the process control. NoV was detected by real-time RT-PCR in 28.2% (N = 641), 33.3% (N = 6) and 50% (N = 6) of leafy greens tested in Canada, Belgium and France, respectively. Soft red fruits were found positive by real-time RT-PCR in 34.5% (N = 29) and 6.7% (N = 150) of the samples tested in Belgium and France, respectively. 55.5% (N = 18) of the other fresh produce types, analyzed in Belgium, were found NoV positive by real-time RT-PCR. Conventional RT-PCR resulted in an amplicon of the expected size in 19.5% (52/266) of the NoV positive samples where this assay was attempted. Subsequent sequencing was only successful in 34.6% (18/52) of the suspected amplicons obtained by conventional RT-PCR. From this study, using the described methodology, NoV genomes were frequently detected in fresh produce however sequence confirmation was not successful for the majority of the samples tested. Infection or outbreaks were rarely or not known to be related to the NoV positive samples. With the increase in sensitivity of the detection methodology, there is an increasing concern about the interpretation of positive NoV results by real-time amplification. Strategies to confirm the results by real-time RT-PCR should be developed in analogy with the detection of microbial pathogens in foods. Detection might indicate contact with NoV in the fresh produce chain. Consequently, a potential risk for infection cannot be excluded but the actual risk from RT-PCR NoV positive produce is still unknown. Studies should be designed determining the probability of infection related to the presence or levels of NoV genomic copies.     

The influence of headspace and dissolved oxygen level on growth and haemolytic BL enterotoxin production of a psychrotolerant Bacillus weihenstephanensis isolate on potato based ready-to-eat food products

The major objective of this study was to determine the influence of the initial headspace and dissolved O₂ level and vacuum packaging on growth and diarrhoeal enterotoxin production by Bacillus weihenstephanensis on potato based ready-to-eat food products. In general, the lower the initial headspace or dissolved O₂ level the slower the maximum growth rate (μ_max, log₁₀ CFU g⁻¹ d⁻¹), the longer the lag phase duration (λ, d) and the smaller the maximum population density (N_max, log₁₀ CFU g⁻¹) became. The slowest μ_max, the longest λ and the smallest N_max were generally found for growth under vacuum packaging. This implies shorter shelf-lives will occur at higher initial headspace or dissolved O₂ levels as the growth of B. weihenstephanensis to the infective dose of 10⁵ CFU g⁻¹ in such atmospheres takes a shorter time. Significant consumption of dissolved O₂ only occurred when growth shifted from the lag to the exponential phase and growth generally transitioned from the exponential to the stationary phase when the dissolved O₂ levels fell below ca. 75 ppb. Diarrhoeal enterotoxin production (determined via detection of the L2 component of haemolytic BL) was similar for growth under initial headspace O₂ levels of 1-20.9%, and was only reduced when growth took place under vacuum packaging. The reduction in L2 production when growth took place under vacuum was most probably related to the low final cell densities observed under this condition. Both growth and L2 production were inhibited over a 32-day incubation period at 7 °C by 40% CO₂ irrespective of the headspace or dissolved O₂ levels. The results illustrate the importance of residual O₂ and CO₂ on the shelf-stability and safety of modified atmosphere packaged potato based ready-to-eat food products with regards to B. weihenstephanensis.     

Antioxidant Capacity and Antioxidant Content in Roots of 4 Sweetpotato Varieties

Abstract: The antioxidant contents (β-carotene, chlorogenic acid, and vitamin C) as well as the antioxidant capacity (ORAC, FRAP, and ABTS) of 4 sweetpotato varieties were measured in this study. The sweetpotato varieties were cultivated under different water regimes and also subjected to thermal processing. The results show that the 2 orange-fleshed varieties (Resisto and W-119) contain significant more β-carotene, chlorogenic acid, and vitamin C than the 2 cream-fleshed varieties (Bosbok and Ndou). Thermal processing decreased the carotenoid and vitamin C content of all the varieties but increased the chlorogenic acid content and antioxidant capacity. Drought stress appears to increase the β-carotene, vitamin C, and chlorogenic acid contents as well as the antioxidant capacity of some of the sweetpotato varieties, especially W-119.     

Serum Calcium and the Risk of Breast Cancer: Findings from the Swedish AMORIS Study and a Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

To investigate the association between serum calcium and risk of breast cancer using a large cohort and a systematic review with meta-analysis. From the Swedish Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS) Study we included 229,674 women who had baseline measurements of serum total calcium and albumin. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess the association between total and albumin-corrected calcium and breast cancer risk. For the systematic review, an electronic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE databases was performed to identify other prospective cohorts assessing the relationship between serum calcium and breast cancer risk. We pooled the results of our AMORIS cohort with other eligible studies in a meta-analysis using a random effects model. I² test was used to assess heterogeneity. In the AMORIS study, 10,863 women were diagnosed with breast cancer (mean follow-up: 19 years). We found an inverse association between total serum calcium and breast cancer when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile (HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.88–0.99, p value for trend 0.04) and similar results using albumin-corrected calcium. In the systematic review, we identified another two prospective cohorts evaluating pre-diagnostic serum total calcium and breast cancer. Combining these studies and our findings in AMORIS in a meta-analysis showed a protective effect of serum calcium against breast cancer, with a summary RR of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.66–0.97). No substantial heterogeneity was observed. Our findings in AMORIS and the meta-analysis support an inverse association between serum calcium and breast cancer risk, which warrants mechanistic investigations.     

Microbiological performance of a food safety management system in a food service operation

The microbiological performance of a food safety management system in a food service operation was measured using a microbiological assessment scheme as a vertical sampling plan throughout the production process, from raw materials to final product. The assessment scheme can give insight into the microbiological contamination and the variability of a production process and pinpoint bottlenecks in the food safety management system. Three production processes were evaluated: a high-risk sandwich production process (involving raw meat preparation), a medium-risk hot meal production process (starting from undercooked raw materials), and a low-risk hot meal production process (reheating in a bag). Microbial quality parameters, hygiene indicators, and relevant pathogens (Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Bacillus cereus, and Escherichia coli O157) were in accordance with legal criteria and/or microbiological guidelines, suggesting that the food safety management system was effective. High levels of total aerobic bacteria (>3.9 log CFU/50 cm(2)) were noted occasionally on gloves of food handlers and on food contact surfaces, especially in high contamination areas (e.g., during handling of raw material, preparation room). Core control activities such as hand hygiene of personnel and cleaning and disinfection (especially in highly contaminated areas) were considered points of attention. The present sampling plan was used to produce an overall microbiological profile (snapshot) to validate the food safety management system in place.