SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

Replicative senescence of human dermal fibroblasts affects structural and functional aspects of the Golgi apparatus

It is well recognized that the world population is ageing rapidly. Therefore, it is important to understand ageing processes at the cellular and molecular levels to predict the onset of age‐related diseases and prevent them. Recent research has focused on the identification of ageing biomarkers, including those associated with the properties of the Golgi apparatus. In this context, Golgi‐mediated glycosylation of proteins has been well characterized. Additionally, other studies show that the secretion of many compounds, including pro‐inflammatory cytokines and extracellular matrix–degrading enzymes, is modified during ageing, resulting in physical and functional skin degradation. Since the Golgi apparatus is a central organelle of the secretory pathway, we investigated its structural organization in senescent primary human dermal fibroblasts using confocal and electron microscopy. In addition, we monitored the expression of Golgi‐related genes in the same cells. Our data showed a marked alteration in the Golgi morphology during replicative senescence. In contrast to its small and compact structure in non‐senescent cells, the Golgi apparatus exhibited a large and expanded morphology in senescent fibroblasts. Our data also demonstrated that the expression of many genes related to Golgi structural integrity and function was significantly modified in senescent cells, suggesting a relationship between Golgi apparatus function and ageing.     

An ultrasonographic monitoring of skin condition in patients receiving radiotherapy for head and neck cancers

Radiodermatitis is one of the commonest side effects of radiotherapy. They are usually assessed by semi‐quantitative clinical scores, which are not validated and may be subject to inter‐observer variability. A few previous studies suggested that high‐frequency ultrasonography (HF‐USG) is useful in the assessment of the acute phase of radiation dermatitis in breast cancer patients. (a) To monitor skin changes by HF‐USG during the course of radiotherapy due to head and neck cancers, and (b) to determine whether there is any connection between skin sonograms and the skin scoring criteria. This prospective, observational study includes patients diagnosed with head and neck cancers, treated with radiotherapy or concomitant chemoradiation. The final analysis includes six patients. In every patient, the HF‐USG as well as dermatological assessment (target lesion score—TLS and CACE v. 4.0) were performed 4×: before, in the middle, day after, and 3 months after radiotherapy. There were significant differences between non‐irradiated skin thickness and thickness of skin with clinically obvious radiodermatitis (TLS grade 1‐4; P < .0001), as well as between irradiated, unchanged skin thickness (TLS grade 0) and thickness of skin with clinically obvious radiodermatitis (TLS grade 1‐4; P = .0002). There was no significant difference between non‐irradiated and irradiated, unchanged skin thickness (TLS grade 0; P = .9318). In four patients, we demonstrated subepidermal low echogenic band (SLEB). HF‐USG can be useful tool to noninvasive and objective assessment of skin changes during radiotherapy.     

Comparative Study of Modified Posterior Operation to Treat Kümmell's Disease

The present study aimed at examining the curative effect of modified posterior operation on treatment of Kümmell''s disease.About 30 patients of Kümmell''s disease with complete image and clinical data treated during June 2004 to July 2013 were conducted with anterior and posterior approaches, respectively. Kyphotic Cobb angle, fractured vertebra wedge angle, and the anterior and posterior heights of fractured vertebra were all measured through x-ray before and after operation, and the pain visual analog scale (VAS) was determined for evaluating the effect of operations. The injury and restoration of neurological function were assessed using Frankel classification.Patients in group A were treated with anterior operation, whereas group B was posterior operation. Postoperatively, VAS score, kyphotic Cobb angle, anterior vertebra height, and pathologic vertebra wedge angle were all significantly improved in patients with Kümmell''s disease receiving modified posterior operation (group B). Similar results were also observed in patients with anterior operation. The improvement of VAS and correction rate of kyphotic Cobb angle indicated equivalent effects of posterior and anterior operations. Meanwhile, alleviated neurological function damage was observed in 2 groups. Relevant factor analysis illustrated that there was no significant correlation of the severity and improvement rate of pain symptoms with age, medical history, anterior and posterior vertebra heights, kyphotic Cobb angle, and pathological vertebra wedge angle.Compared with traditional anterior approach, modified posterior operation, adopting transpedicular vertebral body grafting combined with vertebral pedicle screw fixation, could produce equivalent effects on kyphosis correction, pain relief, and improvement of neurological function in patients with Kümmell''s disease.     

良性前列腺增生与前列腺慢性炎症的相关性研究进展

良性前列腺增生（BPH）是老年男性常见的泌尿系统疾病，其发病与前列腺慢性炎症之间存在显著相关。感染因子、尿液返流、代谢综合征、衰老过程和自身免疫应答在内的几种刺激，通过相应分子途径引起前列腺免疫细胞的组织定位和组成成分发生广泛改变，从而导致免疫系统失调，之后引发的组织损伤和缓慢愈合，导致了BPH发生和进展。本文通过总结良性前列腺增生与前列腺慢性炎症的相关性的临床研究结果，前列腺免疫细胞在病理生理机制层面与前两者之间的内在联系，以及抗炎药物对BPH-LUTS的干预作用，以其为BPH-LUTS的药物研发提供参考。     

大承气汤加减治疗脑病医案3则

通过病案举例,介绍大承气汤在中医脑病治疗中的使用技巧,说明大承气汤可以运用于出血性中风头痛、癫痫、失眠等多种脑病的治疗,疗效显著。大承气汤具有通腑泄热、祛邪外出的作用。对于六经辨证属阳明腑实证者,无论病种,皆可用大承气汤加味化裁。